i wonder what impact avdeevka will have on bakhmut and vice versa. i can see the Russian MOD wanting to prove itself as a potent force after being essentially relegated to second tier in bakhmut, and then failing to take ugledar. but reorienting to avdeevka also means that Russian MOD might be inclined to take some resource away from wagner. of course in the end the real outcome russia is looking for certainly would be to take both cities, but i think avdeevka is much tougher than bakhmut to take, it is almost suspicious how easy it has been for the Russians in the past day lol.
Not much at all. Russian MIC has been scaling up production of weapons and munitions to meet the demands, and it now appears they are getting supplies from Iran.
Avdiivka offensive are done mostly by DPR volunteer forces, with Russian army and air support. DPR volunteer forces are second to none among the Russian armed forces, especially obtf Kaskad, obtf Sparta, obtf Somali and the 1st Slavyansk Brigade. They are also second to none when it comes to drone use, Kaskad is notorious for its Lancet attacks and artillery use, Sparta for quadcopter bombing of trenches. The force that sneak-krieged its way to southwest of Avdiivka is probably Sparta. While having the best of drones, for ground equipment they tend to be furnished with older equipment such as T-62s and a lot of trophy equipment taken from Ukrainians. One thing of note is that the DPR forces consist mainly of Russian speaking Ukrainians, and a good number of them are ex-AFU with an axe to grind.
Previously, Avdiivka is well fortified and the DPR doesn't have enough forces to take it, as they have been a semi-guerilla, semi-militia force. Now it appears they are heavily reinforced with regular Russian units and equipment. They might also have been carefully observing what Wagner is doing and I won't be surprised if there are ex-Wagnerians that have moved back to the DPR. The sneak-kriegs towards the northeast and southwest of Avdiivka, along with pinning attacks and a larger envelopment looking to cut off the supply routes seems like Wagnerian tactics.
