The War in the Ukraine

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
After the US runs out of Ukrainians it will be the turn of the Poles and Romanians.
Anyway, just like I said, once the ground froze the Russians moved forward and started capturing terrain.
The only question is how much the Russians will capture and if there will be any reversals or not. Without tracked vehicles the Ukrainians have little chance of doing successful counter attacks at this time of the year.
I expect the peak of activity to be around February unless there is some kind of unexpected weather change or something.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Compared with a certain sobriety in the comments of our government, however strongly it condemns the invasion of Ukraine, the actions are sluggish. All of Germany's actions are to me a belated and rather stingy help.
So you do not know about the actual state of the current German Army then. Most of their armored vehicles in storage are not in a usable state.
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Heck, I think it was 5 years ago they had no tanks in actual service that would run. The Germans only started taking the Leopard 2s out of storage and upgrading them recently.

The Poles are still waiting for the Leopard 2A4s they were promised if they sent their upgraded T-72s to Ukraine. Poland alone sent 200 T-72 to Ukraine.
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The Czechs sent 72 T-72 tanks to Ukraine and got only 15 Leopard 2A4 back. If the Czechs want more tanks they have to pay for them and wait God knows how long for them.
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So, they can send all the Leopard 2s they have to Ukraine. And if Ukraine then loses them, just like they lost the prior tanks sent to them, then Western Europe becomes wide open and the Russians can just walk over the place at will.

In place of Surovikin, who had only been appointed on 8 October and who admittedly seemed more capable than his predecessors (at least he avoided another massacre of Russians in Kherson), comes Gerasimov, notoriously untalented.
Gerasimov is considered one of the best armored specialists in Russia and he studied at their top tank school. He should be the best guy for doing an armored offensive. So, you tell me why they put him in command at this point in time.

Surovikin himself, however, remains among the deputies.
He is supposed to be a combined arms specialist. I am pretty sure they will find something for him to do.

Lapin, who, according to Russian millbloggers, is somewhere between incompetent, like Cadorna, and a pure coward, is promoted.
Lapin, from the Central Military district, had to cover the asses of the incompetents of the Western military district, and hold the line while Russian troops withdrew from a possible encirclement after the Kharkov counter-offensive the Ukrainians pulled out. He managed to delay the Ukrainians long enough the retreat was done, and then he stabilized the defense line. But whatever.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Getting reports Soledar has finally fallen. Let the coping commence.
Escaping like the pits of a grape when it's crushed... they have clearly waited long enough to pull out.

Would be interesting the amount of time gain with Soledar and Bakmut to train better troops in the rear for Ukraine. If all that is for nothing and no build-up with new equipment and fresh troop have been successful, it's quite sad for Ukraine.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Iskander for a BUK... isn't that overkill.?

They also slammed an Iskander to take out a Pion, with a second for collateral bonus (video already posted). If you understand what a Pion is, it's a 203mm mortar with no equivalent in the West and is one of the most underrated weapons in the war. A 200mm mortar hurts when it falls on your position, so the Russians prioritized on that.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
They also slammed an Iskander to take out a Pion, with a second for collateral bonus (video already posted). If you understand what a Pion is, it's a 203mm mortar with no equivalent in the West and is one of the most underrated weapons in the war. A 200mm mortar hurts when it falls on your position, so the Russians prioritized on that.
Pion is a full fledged artillery self propelled gun piece and not a mortar...

37.5km (unassisted), 47.5km (assisted) with a Maximum firing range of 55.5km

It have more range than m777, quite usefull hardware because it outrange more or less any other guns. Hard to hit back with artillery counterbarrage.
 
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Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I think a person of General Surovikin's elite stature and caliber was not "demoted" or "fired" as Western media is claiming, rather Gen. Surovikin voluntarily resigned from his post as top commander of Ukraine operation because he cannot agree with Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Putin on the grand strategy in the war. Gen. Surovikin has extensive experience leading Syrian campaigns and applied that experience against the infrastructure of Ukraine to a great extent, but likely disagree with the strategy and direction of war, so he (voluntarily) moved to a nominally lower position, while maintaining ground force operation command under Gerasimov.


This is the 5th leadership change in the war over the past 11 months, only to be replaced on average 2-4 months later...Gen. Surovikin didn't even get to launch an winter offensive with the partial mobilized troops he oversaw, with Soledar falling at the end of his tenure. Maybe he wanted to end on a high note.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia upgraded their 2S7 Pion to the 2S7M Malka. It has an improved rate of fire of 2.5 rounds per minute vs 1.5 for the older one.
They basically improved the fire control system to achieve the speedup.
It can also carry 8 rounds in storage vs 4.
The extra automation means it has 6 crew vs original 7. It is also faster to deploy and stow back for movement.
After facing Georgian 2S7s in the Russo-Georgian war the Russians put the gun back into service and upgraded it.

The West used to have similar caliber artillery but it was taken out of service a long time ago.

203mm artillery not just has high range but it is suitable for cracking open fortified positions like bunkers. The Soviets used 203mm howitzers in the Winter War to crack open the Mannerheim Line.
 
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ham

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Russia upgraded their 2S7 Pion to the 2S7M. It has an improved rate of fire of 2.5 rounds per minute vs 1.5 for the older one.
They basically improved the fire control system to achieve the speedup.
It can also carry 8 rounds in storage vs 4.
The extra automation means it has 6 crew vs original 7. It is also faster to deploy and stow back for movement.
After facing Georgian 2S7s in the Russo-Georgian war the Russians put the gun back into service and upgraded it.

The West used to have similar caliber artillery but it was taken out of service a long time ago.

203mm artillery not just has high range but it is suitable for cracking open fortified positions like bunkers.
It doesn't matter, because at the end of the day, RUSSIA is losing soldiers faster than the rate of fire of this machine, it will lose this war, just look at the testimony of these poor Russian soldiers in the trench...

 
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