The War in the Ukraine

B777LR

Junior Member
Registered Member
Someone pointed out that "Karaya" was WW2 Nazi ace Erich Hartmann's callsign. It rounds up the image of an Ukranian MiG-29 pilot taking a selfie after being shot down nicely.

Hartmann wasn't really a Nazi however. Even the post-war Germans gave him a squadron to command and painted a Typhoon as a tribute to him.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Key Points:
  1. 2/3 of Americans support sanctions, and 3/4s of Americans support accepting refugees and sanctioning Russia
  2. Republicans backing aid to Ukraine has slipped from 80% to 55%
  3. 47% of Americans say Washington should push Kyiv to reach a peace agreement soon
  4. A plurality of Republicans want a gradual withdrawal of US support from Ukraine
  5. Around a third of Democrats say Ukraine has the advantage, compared with 23 percent of Republicans and 22 percent of independents. Overall, 46 percent of respondents think neither Ukraine nor Russia has the advantage.
This comes on the heels of previous polls that indicate Italians don't want to send more military aid to Ukraine while the French overwhelmingly believe sanctions and military aid are ineffective. 54% of Germans also say that their government has done enough or too much for Ukraine.
Why can't countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania that are so eager to fight the Russians to the last Ukraine send in their super duper elite troops and finish off the hapless Ruskies? I mean, after all, the Russians couldn't even beat the mostly conscripted poor Ukrainian military per @Broccoli ( the racist Fin).

I noticed that most of the vociferous and cowardly comments aimed against Russia rend to come from small and irrelevant countries barking mad like a bunch of pitbulls when in reality they're nothing more than puny chihuahuas.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Vehicle looks perfectly fine to me. There was no indication from its surroundings that the tank was under fire of any sort. This means this was a perfectly running vehicle which could potentially retreat on its own power. If this was an abandonment, the crew abandoned a perfectly fine vehicle.

Possibilities for immobilization/abandonment:
  1. Tracks are broken.
  2. Tank's engine was disabled
  3. Transmission mechanical issue
  4. Ran out of gas and isolated.
  5. No reinforcements, isolated, unable to retreat quickly enough
  6. Electronics failure
You cannot tell from 50M above the tank what the internal issue is, so absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Occam's razor suggest immobilization and abandonment , not "fraticide".

The fact that "fraticide" is the default assumption reveals a lot about your biases.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Possibilities:
  1. Tracks are broken.
  2. Tank's engine was disabled
  3. Transmission mechanical issue
  4. Ran out of gas and isolated.
  5. No reinforcements, isolated, unable to retreat quickly enough
  6. Electronics failure
You cannot tell from 50M above the tank what the internal issue is, so absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Occam's razor suggest immobilization and abandonment , not "fraticide".

The fact that "fraticide" even comes up reveals a lot about your biases.

Somehow managed to get in the middle of a forest without suffering this?

All these other possibilities suggest a worst state for the Ukrainian forces --- lack of maintenance, furnished with unreliable tanks, insufficient fuel for tanks.

I honestly do not think you would be dumb enough to deploy into a forest position without reserve fuel to retreat. You run out of fuel exactly as you deployed? This only makes sense if the tank is in the middle of the road. Bad engines and bad transmissions happen if the tank is moving, like in a trail or a road. No trail or road here.

It's also possible the tank was grenaded by an SoF infiltrator from the RuAF. There are stories that Ukrainians fail to identify infiltrators behind their lines, only to have these infiltrators turn around and shoot them.

In other news from @milchronicles. Sounds like an enormous fire bag has been set up.

Since the beginning of December, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the eastern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) have increased dramatically. According to the Military Chronicle, this direction is defended by the forces of the 30th and 53rd brigades of the Ukrainian army.

To maintain control over the city, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are moving new reinforcements to this area, which suffer heavy losses, barely having time to turn around. Because of this, the hospitals of Bakhmut and neighboring cities are packed with a huge number of wounded, for whom the gyms of city schools are being prepared. This demoralizes the Ukrainian troops and increases the burden on the medical and logistics system.

The position of the PMC "Wagner" in this area is more advantageous from the point of view of tactics: Bakhmut, located in a lowland, is within the reach of all types of artillery pieces, which makes it possible to fire at almost any military installations within the city.

Reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrive in Bakhmut through well-known and well-explored areas, which the artillery of the “orchestra” keeps under fire control.

In addition, the attack of PMC "Wagner" on the neighboring Soledar is developing. An attack on the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Yakovlevka could provoke the operational encirclement of Bakhmut.

As a result, Bakhmut has become a platform, for the retention of which Kiev is forced to spend colossal human resources.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Wagner vs. Mozart

The founder and head of Mozart Group NGO, retired US Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, in an interview with American Newsweek, said that it is "not excluded" that Mozart Group became a target for Wagner PMC.

Prigozhin wrote on Telegram in November that "American mercenaries" led by retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn had taken command of a badly mauled Ukrainian brigade.

Milburn dismissed Prigozhin's description of Mozart as a private military company. "People call us a PMC because that's all they have as a frame of reference," he said. "We don't carry weapons, our tasks are humanitarian—and I mean, seriously, legally humanitarian."

Mozart volunteers are training Ukrainian forces in combat skills while other groups ferry civilians away from the gradually shifting front line in the east.

'Horrible and Miserable' Bakhmut

"Bakhmut is like Dresden, and the countryside looks like Passchendaele," he said, referring to the German city destroyed by allied bombing in World War II and the infamously muddy and bloody World War I battlefield. "It's just a horrible and miserable place."

Ukraine closely guards its casualty figures, but its forces are believed to be suffering badly around Bakhmut.

"They've been taking extraordinarily high casualties," Milburn said of the units training with Mozart. "The numbers you are reading in the media about 70 percent and above casualties being routine are not exaggerated."

Despite their "tremendous morale," Milburn said the defenders "have an acute 'regeneration problem,' which means getting new recruits into the line as quickly as possible." This means those being thrown into the fight have little beyond basic training.

"Typically about 80 percent of our intake who are coming off of the line have never even fired a weapon before," Milburn said.

Beyond the immediate dangers, a lack of funds is a pressing concern, according to Milburn. "I'm terrified we're going to run out of steam early in the new year," he explained, noting that sourcing, repairing, and replacing damaged vehicles is the biggest expense.

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Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
According to Putin's speech today, out of the 300.000 mobilized, 150.000 are in Ukraine with 77.000 of those involved in combat operations and the rest on reserve near the front. The remaining 150.000 are still undergoing training

Let's observe:

300 thousand mobilized.
70 thousand volunteers.
They claim 70,000 Chechens.
40 thousand from PMC Wagner Group
Maybe 5-10 thousand Cossacks

That's not including Russia's own regular troops, initially at 150,000, now how many after the rotation period? 50-70 thousand?

150,000 as regular forces from the initial invasion dropped either by KIA or by rotations in August to 1/2 or 1/3 of the full contingent employed pre-invasion. So we have 50 to 100 thousand regulars.

300 thousand mobilized.

70,000 volunteers look like they've been laid off.

The 70,000 Chechens will cover the 70,000 laid off volunteers.

PMC Wagner carried out its own mobilization, including even recruiting prisoners, leaving a total force of up to 40,000, according to the sources.

For the greater good, I will not include the Cossacks.

50-100 thousand regular forces + 300 thousand + 70 thousand Chechens + 40 thousand from PMC Wagner = 460 thousand to 510 thousand mobilized.

Would that be the total employed?

Ukraine must have mobilized somewhere between 700,000 to 800,000.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Let's observe:

300 thousand mobilized.
70 thousand volunteers.
They claim 70,000 Chechens.
40 thousand from PMC Wagner Group
Maybe 5-10 thousand Cossacks

That's not including Russia's own regular troops, initially at 150,000, now how many after the rotation period? 50-70 thousand?

150,000 as regular forces from the initial invasion dropped either by KIA or by rotations in August to 1/2 or 1/3 of the full contingent employed pre-invasion. So we have 50 to 100 thousand regulars.

300 thousand mobilized.

70,000 volunteers look like they've been laid off.

The 70,000 Chechens will cover the 70,000 laid off volunteers.

PMC Wagner carried out its own mobilization, including even recruiting prisoners, leaving a total force of up to 40,000, according to the sources.

For the greater good, I will not include the Cossacks.

50-100 thousand regular forces + 300 thousand + 70 thousand Chechens + 40 thousand from PMC Wagner = 460 thousand to 510 thousand mobilized.

Would that be the total employed?

Ukraine must have mobilized somewhere between 700,000 to 800,000.

Cossacks are confusing. There are Cossack regiments in the LPR and DPR, such as the 6th Regiment; there are Cossack formations in the regular Russian armed forces, and there is a Cossack BARS unit, the Kuban Cossacks that distinguished itself in the defense of Liman with two other BARS units (13, 16, and 18). Unlike the Chechens who have one overall leader, these Cossack units operate under different respective command umbrellas.

Going to other stuff.

Been hearing this blogged again and HT does a video on it. But this is old stuff being regurgitated.


It's not new that the Ukrainians hide the HIMARS rockets in a flurry with GRAD rocket fire, mixing the two into a swarm, once the Russians figured out how to shoot the HIMARS rockets down. This tactic came into strong use when they were taking down those bridges in Kherson. So this was months ago. The Russians eventually figured out how to separate the GRAD rockets from the HIMARS rockets, and prioritized on the HIMARS.

Lately there has been a software upgrade released for the Russian air defense systems, and it is maybe more refinements related to this case. The Russians claim credit for the S-300V system taking many MLRS rockets down but it's said that Buks also managed to take down MLRS. There's also the unseen hand of A-20s that are used to detect these rockets and help que the air defense systems on them.

The 70 HIMARS rockets allegedly destroyed is a separate issue, this being destroyed on a depot that was targeted, along with two MLRS launchers--- Russian MoD did not ID the launchers in particular.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Somehow managed to get in the middle of a forest without suffering this?

All these other possibilities suggest a worst state for the Ukrainian forces --- lack of maintenance, furnished with unreliable tanks, insufficient fuel for tanks.

I honestly do not think you would be dumb enough to deploy into a forest position without reserve fuel to retreat. You run out of fuel exactly as you deployed? This only makes sense if the tank is in the middle of the road. Bad engines and bad transmissions happen if the tank is moving, like in a trail or a road. No trail or road here.
It's like talking to a brick wall.

Russian have been targeting fuel depot with precision missile strikes, it's not unreasonable to assume the tank ran out of gas due to fuel shortages or supply lines were cut when it was out-flanked or surrounded by advancing Russian forces.

The idea that Russian special forces sneaking behind enemy lines to drop a grenade in an open-hatched Ukrainian tank is unlikely as the hovering Russian drone overhead would have destroyed all operational covert secrecy and alerted Ukrainians of enemy presence. Too risky.

It's not surprising that moth-balled second-hand Polish donated equipment is prone to equipment or mechanical failure in the field due to poor maintenance history. Equipment break down all the time in the field due to poor maintenance.

Still, there is atleast a dozen plausible factors because one can jump to a ridiculous "deliberate fratricide", when we have zero visual evidence of passengers inside the tank to begin with. For all we know, it could be empty tank.
 

Corona

Junior Member
Registered Member
The war is going to take longer; Vladimir Putin : Russia's war in Ukraine could be long term process

Bunch of Azeri, Georgian, Polish mercenaries are killed in Bakhmut, those who survived have permanent injuries and are scaring off others.
Yesterday two Ukrainian's were captured by pro Russian troops in injured condition, both of them were involved in torturing Russian POW's. They are transferred to Russia. Video might still be available on Pro Russian accounts, they are NSFW.
Another video (available on Pro Russian accounts) this time filmed by Ukrainian's executing their own deserters.

@sheogorath, buddy the video is from a training according to Ghost.

British farming vehicles are turned into Ukrainian rocket launchers, So where are those 100's of billions going ?
The noise is getting louder on each passing day, that there is lack of blood, medicines, recruits, funds, armored vehicles, air defense etc

Ukrainian armored convoy and trenches are getting hammered, several direct hits :
 
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