The Situation in South Korea

AssassinsMace said:

It's more likely coincidental regarding THAAD in this context. China didn't have a hand at Park having a childhood friend who claimed to have psychic abilities. That's sort of like the counter to the Trump conspiracy theory that while Obama was born in another country, someone knew he would become President all the way back then manipulating government records to make him look like a citizen so he can become President of the United States. Park's downfall wasn't THAAD. It was having her childhood friend have influence. Someone on the government inside who may have known this and didn't like Park maybe even because they didn't like the THAAD deal could've leaked this information to ruin her. There were protests in South Korea over THAAD so it's not like the public was 100% pro-THAAD. You're unfit to be leader if you're consulting a psychic on affairs of the state.

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Humans are not perfect. Few, if any of us would in all honesty say we have nothing to hide that we are ashamed of.

China didn't created the cause of the problem, but it is entirely possible, if not likely it had a strong hand in airing that dirty laundry.

China sometimes gets a false rep as being meek or weak in the west. But that is mostly because China doesn't play poker.

China does not bluff, but neither does it make idle threats or take its national interests lightly.

China tends to back down when pressed by the west on matters far from China because Beijing knows it doesn't have the means to stand and fight to defend those interests. So why even start down an escalation path if you and your opponent both know they have ultimate escalation dominance?

That may sound weak, but it's not nearly as weak as drawing lines in the sand you cannot enforce and being able to do nothing when someone walks over those lines like Obama had to learn the hard way.

On SK, THAAD is viewed as a major provocation and threat, so China had the means and motive to remove an unfavourable SK leader and potentially make the whole THAAD
thing go away, but far more importantly, it has the raw military power to ensure it holds ultimate escalation dominance. So even if the worst case scenario happens and it's role becomes public, what is anyone going to do about it? About as such as Syria could do about America arming terrorists and bombing its soldiers.

Hey, these are the precious 'international laws and norms' the US and west created and cherish so much. If anyone had a problem with it, hate the game, not the player.

plawolf said:

On SK, THAAD is viewed as a major provocation and threat, so China had the means and motive to remove an unfavourable SK leader and potentially make the whole THAAD

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You're making it look like PRC is control of everything happening in SK while it's not. For what happened now I would call that rather NK doing or internal power struggles inside South Korean intelligence agencies. The whole thing was an open secret and I don't know why it erupted now because everyone more or less knew what was going on. And Park's low level of support from voters had nothing to do with THAAD. Aside from a few villages in remote SK regions who opposed the decission as NK's missiles might strike them in case of war.

Take every individual issues separately, THAAD and the psychic scandal and whatever dirt that may be hidden, none of them are related, all of them are coincidental. That is true, but that is only part of the whole thing (her leadership). And nobody has a control of them happening, China is surely not an exception.
But things never act alone. All things will combine forces with their own vectors. It is the combined effect determine the outcome (her fate).
She got some oppositions because of THAAD, not only some small number of villagers, but also politicians and businessmen who prefer a better relationship with NK, China and Russia. That is proven by opposition congressmen's demand for congressional debate and approval of THAAD. She then got other sections of the population against her because of the psychic scandal. It is the sum of the two that is pushing her over the cliff, not just one.
It does not matter what scandal being revealed. Nobody is as clean as a Saint, so a scandal is guaranteed to be revealed and escalated if her opponent is determined to attack her for other reasons, even fabricate if "necessary".

So, I agree that THAAD or for that matter China factor is a coincident, but neither is it a concern. THAAD plays a role in her dismiss, not through the SK commoners' protests, but through businessmen's fear of loosing market, who then employ/encourage media's that they control/finance to play up the scandal instead of playing down if they wanted to defend her.

Nobody is saying "PRC is controlling everything in SK". People are saying that China does have great influence in SK through the many SK businessmen who heavily rely on China's favor.

I don't think China's or anyone else's influence is at play here, rather China is just a passive factor and probably a minor one among many as South Korea's own many players figure out their internal affairs.

I'm sure Chinese intelligence services probably have a file on Park and they could've slip this information to the right people in South Korea but in the end she decided to have a childhood friend have that much influence in her office. That's the scandal.