The Situation in South Korea

I find it interesting that this is happening mere weeks after Park agreed to the THAAD deployment. It could just be a coincidence, but it seems like a pretty (in)convenient coincidence.

Could we be seeing China's hand behind this scandal? Or could this be a play by the US to replace a recalcitrant President?

Or maybe this scandal is bad enough without imagining further layers to it.

Not everything that happens in South Korea -- or any other nation for that matter -- is a function of Great Power politics.

I am curious, though, why you believe the US would consider Park 'recalcitrant'. The US got what it wanted in THAAD, didn't it? And from my understanding, Park represents the more conservative and pro-US wing of Korean politics.

To be honest I feel kind of sorry for her. It's clear that one of the reasons why the relationship was able to develop to such an inappropriate level was Park's loneliness since childhood. Clearly she can no longer remain President, and hopefully this will occasion some soul-searching amongst Koreans about the desirability of clinging to symbols of the past and the need for further reforms, but I don't see anything to be gained by the ongoing vindictiveness of impeachment.

Lethe said:

Or maybe this scandal is bad enough without imagining further layers to it.

Not everything that happens in South Korea -- or any other nation for that matter -- is a function of Great Power politics.

I am curious, though, why you believe the US would consider Park 'recalcitrant'. The US got what it wanted in THAAD, didn't it? And from my understanding, Park represents the more conservative and pro-US wing of Korean politics.

To be honest I feel kind of sorry for her. It's clear that one of the reasons why the relationship was able to develop to such an inappropriate level was Park's loneliness since childhood. Clearly she can no longer remain President, and hopefully this will occasion some soul-searching amongst Koreans about the desirability of clinging to symbols of the past and the need for further reforms, but I don't see anything to be gained by the ongoing vindictiveness of impeachment.

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Park attended the 70th anniversary of victory against Japan, and joined the AIIB despite US pressure not to do either.

Then, suddenly, she decides to deploy THAAD over the objections of both China and Russia. The ostensible reason was NK, but it certainly wasn't the first time, or even the tenth time, that NK had tested missiles. The move practically destroyed all the good will built up between China and SK for the past decade. Surely she could not have been oblivious to such a consequence?

Now, scant weeks after the announcement, a scandal comes out of nowhere to threaten her presidency.

You could say it's just a coincidence, but like I said, it's a pretty (in)convenient coincidence.

屋漏偏逢连夜雨，船迟又遇打头风。冯梦龙《醒世恒言》
I don't know if you all understand it. Here is a rough translation. Roof of the house is broken when the heavy rain comes, ship is late and in head wind.

Nobody can predict and plan when the roof is broken and when the rain is coming. Nobody could have known when the wind will turn against the ship when ship is sailing late.

Let's put the connection between the scandal and big power's hand out of the picture for a moment. Let's say it is just a coincidence, does it make any difference?

I'd say it is both a coincidence and not a coincidence. If some interest groups (there are many of them in any country) want to remove the president, they will use or create any kind of scandal to defame her, it is a certain thing. Good example is Clinton and Levensky, or corruption charges against Roh Moo-hyun and his suicide.

So the next question is "are there such groups in SK who want Park gone?". The answer is pretty straight considering the relentless protest and all opposition parties and even part of Park's own party. Did China do anything to push these groups to do so? Nobody knows, but China surely have put quite some economical pressures on the South Korean businessmen and celebrities. Those pressures are deliberate. Did China tell these groups to remove Park? I think NOT. Does it matter? Does China need to say it out loud? I don't think so. Regardless, the outcome is the same, isn't it?

The bottom line is, there is no need for China or any big powers to do it directly nowadays when countries are so interconnected. It is enough to punish business of Park's friends and threat someone neutral but influential to do something without saying anything specific. Remember the usual words from Chinese MoF? "The act(whatever that is) will seriously damage the relationship, the other party must mend the damage by necessary means." or "The other party must pay the consequence."

My conclusion is that one can say that China played a hand directly or indirectly. In other words, Park is pushed over the cliff by people including some or many who were threatened by China. So I quite agree with solarz, at least concerning the out come.

solarz said:

Park attended the 70th anniversary of victory against Japan, and joined the AIIB despite US pressure not to do either.

Then, suddenly, she decides to deploy THAAD over the objections of both China and Russia. The ostensible reason was NK, but it certainly wasn't the first time, or even the tenth time, that NK had tested missiles. The move practically destroyed all the good will built up between China and SK for the past decade. Surely she could not have been oblivious to such a consequence?

Now, scant weeks after the announcement, a scandal comes out of nowhere to threaten her presidency.

You could say it's just a coincidence, but like I said, it's a pretty (in)convenient coincidence.

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I think China can benefit more with her removal than say for the U.S. I think the troubles started when she decided to go ahead and approved the deployment of Thaad system. That led to China boycott the Korean entertainment and tourist industrys, and more recently issued another ban to everything related to Koreans entertainment, including joint production movies, ads commercials or even concerts barred from China without the government approval with hefty fines violation. The ones that are greatly affected by this are all S. Korean corporations and the entertainment companies that do business inside China. From the leaked news, Park using her influence pressured big corparations to donate money into her setup company. It is more likely like Samsung (who has business in many industries) & others got fed up by her decision to not heed China warning now turned against her for their business losses and leaked news out to the public for this scandal.

I still remember reading the news when China first invited her to come join celebrate the 70th anniversary victory parade, she initially agreed to come as an formal gesture with friendly relationship with China but declined to stay and observe the military parade, that changed when S. Korean opposition parties urged her to stay and join the parade too so that China would help curb N. Korea nuclear missile test.

Then months later, after agreeing with the deployment of the Thaad system and China started boycotting S. Korea entertainment and tourist, the opposition parties again wanted to visit China to explain and mend sour relationship but Park tried to stop them from visiting China but they did went anyway.

So if chances Park stepped down from President, I think there an likely chances the opposition party would take her place and switch back with better relation with China. Just my own opinion.

bluewater2012 said:

I think China can benefit more with her removal than say for the U.S. I think the troubles started when she decided to go ahead and approved the deployment of Thaad system. That led to China boycott the Korean entertainment and tourist industrys, and more recently issued another ban to everything related to Koreans entertainment, including joint production movies, ads commercials or even concerts barred from China without the government approval with hefty fines violation. The ones that are greatly affected by this are all S. Korean corporations and the entertainment companies that do business inside China. From the leaked news, Park using her influence pressured big corparations to donate money into her setup company. It is more likely like Samsung (who has business in many industries) & others got fed up by her decision to not heed China warning now turned against her for their business losses and leaked news out to the public for this scandal.

I still remember reading the news when China first invited her to come join celebrate the 70th anniversary victory parade, she initially agreed to come as an formal gesture with friendly relationship with China but declined to stay and observe the military parade, that changed when S. Korean opposition parties urged her to stay and join the parade too so that China would help curb N. Korea nuclear missile test.

Then months later, after agreeing with the deployment of the Thaad system and China started boycotting S. Korea entertainment and tourist, the opposition parties again wanted to visit China to explain and mend sour relationship but Park tried to stop them from visiting China but they did went anyway.

So if chances Park stepped down from President, I think there an likely chances the opposition party would take her place and switch back with better relation with China. Just my own opinion.

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Those are excellent points!

It makes sense that the SK corporations who have been paying money to gain influence with Park, and who now find their business ventures (with China) threatened, would hold all the incriminating evidence to blow up this scandal.

If this is the case, and it certainly seems to make sense, that means China has pretty potent influence in SK. Of course, it remains to be seen whether THAAD will ultimately be deployed.

Lethe said:

Or maybe this scandal is bad enough without imagining further layers to it.

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It is bad but it does not have to be so bad, IF she could show to the people that she is an indispensable leader who can deliver something more important to the country, for example, good economical return from China's market (SK's nr. 1 trading partner).

Not everything that happens in South Korea -- or any other nation for that matter -- is a function of Great Power politics.

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Not a direct function, doesn't have to be. But any big power will not miss the opportunity to "punish" the one who don't cooperate. Here is the coincidence of timing of punishment and scandal. After all, why should China lend a "helping" hand to someone who just slapped the face of China?

Another example is China freezing loans to Mongolia over Dalai Lama's visit. China will not feel sorry if Mongolia went bankrupt on its debt to IMF soon.

I am curious, though, why you believe the US would consider Park 'recalcitrant'. The US got what it wanted in THAAD, didn't it? And from my understanding, Park represents the more conservative and pro-US wing of Korean politics.

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I agree. So far, I don't see a reason why US would want her removed.

To be honest I feel kind of sorry for her. It's clear that one of the reasons why the relationship was able to develop to such an inappropriate level was Park's loneliness since childhood. Clearly she can no longer remain President, and hopefully this will occasion some soul-searching amongst Koreans about the desirability of clinging to symbols of the past and the need for further reforms, but I don't see anything to be gained by the ongoing vindictiveness of impeachment.

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The removal of her as a symbol (as you said) is part of the soul-searching (that you proposed). It is a fight between the two camps. On the one side it is Park and Lee Myung-bak who represent the line from the former military dictatorship, on the other side is the anti side who fought all the way since the military dictatorship, including Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. You will realize the camps if you check the histories of the parties that they represent. So the fight now is much more than just vindictiveness, it is fundamental to the future direction of SK.

taxiya said:

It is bad but it does not have to be so bad, IF she could show to the people that she is an indispensable leader who can deliver something more important to the country, for example, good economical return from China's market (SK's nr. 1 trading partner).


Not a direct function, doesn't have to be. But any big power will not miss the opportunity to "punish" the one who don't cooperate. Here is the coincidence of timing of punishment and scandal. After all, why should China lend a "helping" hand to someone who just slapped the face of China?

Another example is China freezing loans to Mongolia over Dalai Lama's visit. China will not feel sorry if Mongolia went bankrupt on its debt to IMF soon.


I agree. So far, I don't see a reason why US would want her removed.


The removal of her as a symbol (as you said) is part of the soul-searching (that you proposed). It is a fight between the two camps. On the one side it is Park and Lee Myung-bak who represent the line from the former military dictatorship, on the other side is the anti side who fought all the way since the military dictatorship, including Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. You will realize the camps if you check the histories of the parties that they represent. So the fight now is much more than just vindictiveness, it is fundamental to the future direction of SK.

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Based on these same facts is why I believe this is not a result of any foreign conspiracy. There were unforced errors on the part of Park and/or her political faction that led to the incident becoming a crisis. Opposition factions and actions also have such an extent and depth of popular support that it could not have been engineered.

PanAsian said:

Based on these same facts is why I believe this is not a result of any foreign conspiracy. There were unforced errors on the part of Park and/or her political faction that led to the incident becoming a crisis. Opposition factions and actions also have such an extent and depth of popular support that it could not have been engineered.

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That is true, but not contradict to what I was trying to say either.

Take Malaysian PM for example. He made good deals with China less than a month ago, that will make lot of businessmen happy in Malaysia. These people have friends in the parliament, in the media. Their employee will be happy to see the continuation of PM's policy. Now, there was the scandal charges against him (two months ago) from US about his fund?? There are people (his enemy) want him gone. How many people can these enemies rally? How many people are willing to "let go" the "maybe true" corruption charges? That is the domestic power balance that he is able to maintain. So he is safe.

Park, on the other hand, does not have any of these advantage, or balancing power domestically. For example, why would Samsung push her over (the forced donation) if Samsung sees her as a contributor to defend Samsung's key market (China)? This line of thinking applies to everyone.

Of course, as I have said, China did not call Samsung's boss to a meeting, telling him to topple Park, that would qualify as a foreign conspiracy, or political coup. But the outcome of the scandal could have been quite different if Park's foreign relationship did not take a nose dive, someone in SK could have been willing to speak for her, some news media could have restrained from speaking against her.

Again, just as I said in the other post, She got her roof broken (the scandal) during a storm (China). Coincidence or not, foreign intervention or not, does not matter. With a broken roof, she won't survive the storm, with a strong roof storm won't hurt her. But she made two bad choices that came to hunt her together, that will "kill" her.

It's more likely coincidental regarding THAAD in this context. China didn't have a hand at Park having a childhood friend who claimed to have psychic abilities. That's sort of like the counter to the Trump conspiracy theory that while Obama was born in another country, someone knew he would become President all the way back then manipulating government records to make him look like a citizen so he can become President of the United States. Park's downfall wasn't THAAD. It was having her childhood friend have influence. Someone on the government inside who may have known this and didn't like Park maybe even because they didn't like the THAAD deal could've leaked this information to ruin her. There were protests in South Korea over THAAD so it's not like the public was 100% pro-THAAD. You're unfit to be leader if you're consulting a psychic on affairs of the state.