The S300 Delay Can Iran Still Trust Russia?

Russia can for years deliver any weapon system across the Caspian Sea directly to Iran if they want to do so. Iran also maintains navy ships on the Caspian Sea. The US or Israel wouldn't be able to stop such shipments. The main point is for around 10 years Putin doesn't want to deliver any S300 to Iran.

Another important number to consider is how many missiles would actually be delivered. If we look at the number of military aircraft available to the US+Saudi+Emirates we can assume that under very positive circumstances maybe 1% or 2% would be shot down by Iranian S300 in a war.

Iran and the Middle East as a whole is not a core interest for the Russians.

Russia will try to promote and defend Russian interests in the ME, but they are not prepared to 'bet the farm' on it the way they would have been over Ukraine, Georgia or other places far closer to home for them.

I think the west in general, and America in particular, made a serious of calamitous mistakes in the lead up to Syria.

First they way overplayed their hand and made the Russians bare their teeth first in Georgia, and then in Ukraine.

Having had to 'blink' repeatedly and back down, the US Obama administration lost the plot a little, and got into the habit of blinking and backing down before the Russians.

The initial Russian Syrian deployment was very limited and temporary. You got the impression they were ready to pull up stakes and be gone on very short notice.

That was, in my view, the Russians dipping their toe and testing the waters.

The lukewarm western response to that deployment, and Turkey's epic fail blunder ambushing that Su24 and the feeble and divided NATO response gave Russia the confidence that NATO was not prepared to fight them over Syria.

The Iran S300 deal is an ace card the Russians are holding on to, to play when it suits them.

It is a carrot they could dangle in front of the Iranians, and a giant stick hanging over the heads of the likes of Saudi Arabia and the US.

However, because of how powerful that card is, if the Russians played in, they can expect significant push back and responses from the likes of the Gulf States and America. Even currently friendly powers like Israel will be forced to jump in and counter such a deal, which may throw their entire Syrian game plan into chaos.

Simply put, I think the Russian Syrian deployment is going as well as Putin could have hoped for going in. As such, he is content to let that play out rather than make any major new moves that might derail the progress they made in Syria.

Jura said:

delft did you loose your mind?
please provide a link to this (so that the context and the circumstances could possibly be understood), or I would question your sanity

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It was last year of course and think I heard him on the BBC saying that Turkey had been stupid to down the Su-24 and that indeed Israel would not shoot down a Russian aircraft, not even if it flew over Tel Aviv.
I do not think the Russian will even contemplate trying that out.

suby68 said:

Russia can for years deliver any weapon system across the Caspian Sea directly to Iran if they want to do so. Iran also maintains navy ships on the Caspian Sea. The US or Israel wouldn't be able to stop such shipments. The main point is for around 10 years Putin doesn't want to deliver any S300 to Iran.

Another important number to consider is how many missiles would actually be delivered. If we look at the number of military aircraft available to the US+Saudi+Emirates we can assume that under very positive circumstances maybe 1% or 2% would be shot down by Iranian S300 in a war.

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It was about diplomacy, not about delivering weapons that could or could not be intercepted by US.

delft said:

It was last year of course and think I heard him on the BBC saying that Turkey had been stupid to down the Su-24 and that indeed Israel would not shoot down a Russian aircraft, not even if it flew over Tel Aviv.
I do not think the Russian will even contemplate trying that out.

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I see, so this:

delft said:

...
Now Russia is stronger, an Israeli official said that Israel wouldn't shoot down a Russian aircraft even if it flew over Tel Aviv. Iran too is stronger. Iran will soon be a member of SCO. ...

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seems to be what seemed to you somebody seemingly said;
now, before I leave your outlandish statement for good, I add:

1. the State of Israel in its airspace of course would've taken care of any uninvited foreign aircraft, pretty much since right after
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   and you know it; your claim of even a remote possibility of Russians flying 'over Tel Aviv' is actually quite offensive, even by the standards of a Military Forum, I guess
   
2. if you had referred to 'entering mistakenly', well, I've read in Russian Internet about an encounter when a Russian Air Force pilot, sometime during this Winter, said he lost orientation somewhere in Southern Syria/Golan Heights, was contacted quickly by the IAF in English first, officially, but ... to the surprise of said pilot .. soon he was told in Russian, Davay vlyevo, syechas! TURN LEFT NOW!

Thank you all for the feedback.

Blackstone said:

It's not like Iran has a lot of options, other than Russia at the moment. It'd be interesting to see how far Russia goes in providing weapon systems to Iran, because at some point in Iran's steady efforts to impose its own sphere of influence, India would likely take exceptions.

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One of the core points of the video was to illustrate that Iran does in fact have the capacity to indigenously produce and enrich in the nuclear domain, but that Russia consciously chooses to maintain Iran as a purchasing market. It does so by using the nuclear speculation of the West as a stick to advance UNSC resolutions in order to stifle Iran's own development.

Now Russia is stronger, an Israeli official said that Israel wouldn't shoot down a Russian aircraft even if it flew over Tel Aviv. Iran too is stronger. Iran will soon be a member of SCO. A railway between Russia and Iran through Azerbaijan is being developed. Iran is an important support for the Russian and Chinese interests in Iraq and Syria. In the current circumstances and in the foreseeable future Iran and Russia will be reliable friends.

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Another point I tried to make in the video is that Russia uses the SCO in order to deny Iran the capability to produce its own complete nuclear cycle. Dmitry Medvedev has threatened Iran with denial to enter the SCO if it fails to comply with the cease and desist demands of all enrichment from the UNSC.