The Q-5, J-7, J-8 and older PLAAF aircraft

Totoro said:

Didn't we say back on china defence that satellite images seem to point to 24 combat j7 per regiment? (a few more for a brigade) plus, of course, two seat jj7?

I would really recommend not counting in the twin seaters with regular j7s, at least not until we have some firm confirmation those have the same subsystems as combat planes.

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I do not think so, and it certainly looks to me as if 24 would be a minimum. The evidence is not very conclusive, which is why I did not give a precise figure. I shall try to look more into the question.

In contrast, I am very definitive that J-8 II regiments have 28, plus 4 JJ-7A. It is difficult to believe that J-7 regiments would have fewer planes.

JJ-7A at least has 23 mm guns, so some combat capability it must have.

Blackstone said:

China has L-9 and L-15 trainer/light fighter-attack to sell the poorest countries, right?

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JL-9 Is essentially a mod J-7 but the 2 seat variant might reduces its raw dogfight abilities. L-15 is a different beast, quite similar to FC-1. Therefore price will be higher than J-7.

I don't know about serials as proof, but as far as satellite imagery goes, multiple images of each of these airfields, over a span of several years show the following:

** anshan. alleged 1st division, 3rd regiment.

never more than 16 j8 planes.


** qiqihar. 21st div, 62nd reg.

never more than 16 j8 planes.


**Shenyang/Yu Hung Tun. alleged 16th division, 46th regiment. supposedly recon regiment.

Never more than 20 J8 planes. Interestingly enough, on every image there are both 4-5 j7 (probably jj7) and 4-5 q5 (q5l?) planes.


**FTTC

never more than 8 j8 planes.


** urmuqi base. 109th brigade.
never more than 18 j8 planes. (plus quite a few j7, more than just for training purposes)


** gaomi. 12th div, 35th reg.
never more than 15 j8 planes.


** shanghai base. 78th brigade
never more than 23 j8 planes, and even that was back in 2006. two more recent photographs show 13 j8 planes.


** shanghai base. 93rd brigade
this is supposedly recce base. never more than 8 j8 planes. interestingly, it also repeatedly features quite a lot, about a dozen, of j7 and q5 looking planes.


** foshan. 2nd div, 4th reg.
never more than 18 j8. again, both a few q5 and j7 looking planes as well.

** dingxin. 14th base. test center
never moer than 16 j8.


Now for PLANAF bases:

**jiaozhou. 5th div, 15th reg
never more than 12 j8 planes.


** lingshui. 9th div, 25th reg.
never more than 16 j8 planes.


I will repeat once again that these are not just one off images. Each of these airfields has a few, sometimes as much as four different images from different times and the numbers are either less or as high as mentioned. I find it highly unlikely that on so many different occasions a good deal of the squadron was removed from the apron, for whatever pruposes. Yes, planes do fly and they do go to maintenance but at least 95% of the time they sit on the apron. (or in shelters, but here there werent any shelters.)


There are way too many j7 bases to do this but from ones i did check they too seem to feature closer to 24 combat planes than anything else. (maybe up to 30 with training conversion ones)

Fine work.

franco-russe said:

Fine work.

If you do the same with J-8 regiments, you will hardly ever find more than 15 planes, either. Yet we know from the rather complete lists of plane numbers that they have 28 each.

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but isn't it possible that is just a dogma? and maybe we shouldn't blindly stick to a dogma?

Isn't there at least some chance the serial system isnt fully understood, no matter how it seemed? Or that perhaps the serials for a single regiment include both j8 and conversion training j7 or perhaps even q5? So out of 28 serials out there maybe not all 28 are actually applicable to combat coded j8?

In the end, what does occam's razor say? Which is more likely, that the explanation of serial system is flawless or that there are 28 j8 in each regiment but somehow there has never been a satellite image of even 24, let alone 28 planes on ANY airbase at ANY time? Once again, planes do sit most of the time on the apron. It just seems impossible that some 10 bases and total of over 30 different images never produced such a sight?

No, the serials system is correctly understood, but unfortunately the J-7 regiments are poorly covered.

And yes, twin-seaters are included in the regimental serial system and account has been made for them.

One of the best known regiments (in particular courtesy of escobar) is 7 Div 21 Regt Yanqing, where known serials are
J-7B 11081, 11082, 11084, 11088, 11185, 11187, 11188, 11189, 11283, 11284, 11285, 11289, JJ-7A 11481, 11485.

i was talking about j8 for the last two-three posts or so. j7 i wont even go into as there are too many of those, too much work there.

so you are suggesting that there are serials within each j8 regiment (not j7 regiment) that cover 32 (or 34?) planes, out of which 28 are always j8 and the rest are jj7 trainers (what about those q5 looking planes then? trainers also?)

considering plaaf seems to be happy enough with 20 single seater j11 in a regiment plus 4 trainer conversion j11s in the same regiment, i don't think it is such a wild assumption there are actually less combat j8 in each regiment...

i just wish photographic evidence would firmly support the math stemming from the serial system.

at least then a list of photographs of at least two different j8 regiments where there are actually 28 different photos of 28 different j8 planes (not some of them being jj7 trainers) with 28 different serials, yet each of them visibly sporting the serial from the same regiment. is there such a collection of photos anywhere? if yes, where?

The second life of the J-6 :




About 200 in 4 units in MR Nankin, close Taiwan ofc...


Members who know Chinese sites would nice for me to communicate please.

Because to find it !!! ...

It can still be a placeholder until a more suitable replacement can be obtained, or as a squadron of aggressor aircraft to train against the real aircraft that particular nation will eventually purchase. It’s an economical means of replacing older aircraft in the interim

Does anyone actually foresee China exporting newly-built J-7's, after the current Bangladesh order is complete?