The PLA of 2015

MIGleader said:

Assuming the redicoulously high gorwth rate of 9-10% a year is maintained, and the u,s does not slump, China wont catch up with the u.s economy until 2040.

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Surely you're mistaken. The yuan is about 1/8 the value it should be relative to the dollar. Adjusting for devalued status, and the fact that the US economy is a speculative bubble with little fundamental basis, there is little doubt that total GDP of the two countries will be equal by 2015.

MIGleader said:

Assuming the redicoulously high gorwth rate of 9-10% a year is maintained, and the u,s does not slump, China wont catch up with the u.s economy until 2040.

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US economy isn't gonna last as long as you think...Congress has been paying the 8.5 trillion dollar debt by raising the debt limit and print more dollars, which means the dollar will be constantly devalued. This isn't the bad part though. US also borrows tons of money from other countries and pays them back with dollars. So if the dollar is constanly getting devalued, those countries might simply "dump" the money back to US, which means inflation, depression, and all that crap...

China just beat US in technology export, it now owns entrance and exit of Panama canal and several other key canals. China also holds a bunch of US bonds. Asian countries are more likely to follow a modernized China than US. China's economy is production based which US is consumer based...

Believe what ever you want to believe but point is that US economy is in a hole that its probably never gonna get out of. I wouldn't be surprised if China's GDP matchs US way before 2040

Roger604 said:

Where was the PLA in 1995?

In 1995, it was just beginning to modernize. In many ways, it was equivalent to western late 70's technology. But now, it's about mid-90's.

The PLA closed the gap between it and the west by 20 years in 10!

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More like 60s soviet tech whit some late 70s western sistems, whit only 28 su-27, 1 relatively modern ship (Luhu class DDG) and 2 kilo subs, whit mostly obsolete tanks and APC… Army, navy and air force were totally obsolete…

Roger604 said:

Where will the PLA be in 2015?

Right now it's mid-90's in western technology. Between 2005 and 2015 it will close the gap with the west by another 20 years -- which means it will be 2015 vs. 2015.

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Now PLA is mostly on Soviet tech level from beginning of the 1990s (elite unit’s whit type96 tanks, type 92 wheeled armored vehicles, type 95 assault rifles) and is introducing new weapons that are comparable to soviet and western 90s designs (type99MBT, ZBD2000 AIFV, new BMP3 based IFV) whit decent C3I capabilities… PLAN is rapidly modernizing but number of modern combatants is small and majority of fleet is obsolete… PLAAF is great but still needs improvements…

Roger604 said:

I expect 5th generation stealth fighters regiments, a stealth bomber prototype, nuclear submarines as good as the seawolf, tons of diesel electric subs, at least 3 CVBG's, a global constellation of satellites, unmanned aerial/underwater/ground vehicles.

Simply put.... an appropriate force for a country with an economy the same size as the United States.

(Of course, this all assumes the economy continues to boom at around 9-10%.)

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I expect 5th generation j-xx in limited numbers, improved j-10s and j-11b as backbone of PLAAF, PLAN whit 1 carrier, 12 – 15 modern DDG supplemented whit 15 type 054 frigates, type093SSN and mix of modernized Kilos and Yuan’s… Plus 2-3 LHD and improved logistical fleet… PLA whit smaller but more capable force (type99s as standard MBT, new IFVs, improved sensors and C3I,better soldier equipment)…
China already poses basics for global constellation of satellites and UAVs so that can be only improved…

I am 100% certain that the PRC will be the 2nd most powerfull military on the planet. I forsee a airforce that will field more than a thousand top of the line aircraft. A navy deploying a fast aggresive fighting force and a Army with more than 4,000 Type96/99 MBT with large formations of Airborne and special forces all of which will have great C&C with total situational awarness in the Asia area of operations.....cheers ute

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Uh, when you honestly think about it, China is currently the second most powerful military. In terms of numbers, equipment and training they beat out everybody but us. Europe has a lot of modern equipment, but no one country has the same ridiculously high numbers. Some countries in Asia have the numbers, but they're almost all conscripts and have very little indigenous capability or capable technology. Some have the capability, but lack the numbers to be effective.

The Russians aren't currently that capable, though they do have the potential to quickly bounce back. Israel has a powerful air force and ground force, but no navy to speak of. Honestly, in terms of naval, aerial, and ground capability measured by numbers, advanced equipment, and training, the PLA comes up second in the world.

Second... Maybe.

BUT training is still a HUGE problem china need to overcome. In recent training we all see a lot problem china need to overcome. they just too show type...

some of my immature idea, so please don't laugh guys. you guys are the pros here on this. pointing out my problem, so I can get better.

1. Joint excercise
2. educating older officer
3. sending young officer to other country to study
4. fight corrpution in military
5. Go on a big "shopping" around country looking teachable and young officers
6. HIGHER PAY TO THEM PLEASE! attarct young people.
7. pay for their college after service
8. give them good job recommandation after service.
9. NO special treatment for "speacial" indiviual.
10. Not afread of wasting ammo.
11. Not afread of injury.
12. China have a lot people. make very harsh test to get the top of cherry. SUPER HIGH STANDART, BEST OF THE BEST. China is big and can do this.
13. Insurance for soldiers
14. mass produce cheap training equipment. and use them!
15. Not afread of pointing out mistake of officers.
16. Get wide mind people from around the world to brain storm and evaluate the progess(like you people here ).
17. Build a stronger tradition.
18. Nicer uniform to attract young people.

some more ideas guys?

If China can't over come the big word "good training". Great equipment don't do anything.

ChinaWall65 said:

US economy isn't gonna last as long as you think...Congress has been paying the 8.5 trillion dollar debt by raising the debt limit and print more dollars, which means the dollar will be constantly devalued. This isn't the bad part though. US also borrows tons of money from other countries and pays them back with dollars. So if the dollar is constanly getting devalued, those countries might simply "dump" the money back to US, which means inflation, depression, and all that crap...

China just beat US in technology export, it now owns entrance and exit of Panama canal and several other key canals. China also holds a bunch of US bonds. Asian countries are more likely to follow a modernized China than US. China's economy is production based which US is consumer based...

Believe what ever you want to believe but point is that US economy is in a hole that its probably never gonna get out of. I wouldn't be surprised if China's GDP matchs US way before 2040

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The US economy might be in trouble in the years to come, but you think China isn't?

Let's see-

Due to the PRCs one-child policy and an aging population, China will have a massive older population to support. The US will as well, but the US is richer and the numbers will be smaller.

The explosive growth of China's economy, accompanied with the massive inflows of cash and the devalued yuan could cause price deflation. The central bank can't really limit the money supply because it is what is fueling the economy.

Basicaly, I think that in some ways China will, for a long time, be behind the rest of the world. China, after all has been considerably held back and this lag will take a long time to overcome. Though it is not to say they would not be comparable to the other world powers, but it will be a long time before it is comparable to the United States. Of course, that is assuming that either the PLA or the U.S militaries will continue on the same path's they have been continuing on. Although unlikely, no-one but no-one will know exactly what is to come in the future.

Finn McCool said:

The US economy might be in trouble in the years to come, but you think China isn't?

Let's see-

Due to the PRCs one-child policy and an aging population, China will have a massive older population to support. The US will as well, but the US is richer and the numbers will be smaller.

The explosive growth of China's economy, accompanied with the massive inflows of cash and the devalued yuan could cause price deflation. The central bank can't really limit the money supply because it is what is fueling the economy.

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The "aging population" thing is overblown, really. A lot of people have two kids. It's called in Chinese "over-birth."

I don't understand how you conclude deflationary tendencies. Deflation is when you contract money supply. That should be exactly the opposite of what's happening, since credit is arguably too easily obtained. But you are right that contracting the money supply would raise the currency and have an impact on exports. But then, as domestic consumption becomes a bigger part of the economy, the reliance on export-driven growth will diminish.

Originally Posted by Finn McCool
The US economy might be in trouble in the years to come, but you think China isn't?

Let's see-

Due to the PRCs one-child policy and an aging population, China will have a massive older population to support. The US will as well, but the US is richer and the numbers will be smaller.

The explosive growth of China's economy, accompanied with the massive inflows of cash and the devalued yuan could cause price deflation. The central bank can't really limit the money supply because it is what is fueling the economy.

Click to expand...

We can tell you know nothing about the China and Chinese culture. Sorry for being so straight. But does the goverment really enforce the one-child policy any more. Most people have 2 childern in china, and some even more.

The aging population cost of living is much lower then the US too.

Well economic..
Devalued yuan do u mean undervalued Yuan, well thank to the US, China going to revaluate it yuan, this would do more good then bad for the Chinese economy.
1) As it mean the yuan can be less reliance to the US dollar, which would lend to a more diverse national foreign exchange holdings.
2) It would create a control slow down of the overheated manufacturing
3) It would actually create a stronger Yaun.
However, this have to be done slowly as a fast revaluated could lend to a hard fall in economic growth, which in term could lend to a depression. This maybe one reason why some member of the US goverment is pushing for a fast revaluation.

^ I agree with you, the CCP probably would've eventually revalued the Yuan by itself, but wanted to wait until it could build up a larger middle class and domestic market.

If the CCP follows the whims and pressures of the US government then allowing the yuan to rise rapidly would mean suffering for all groups involved, it's in the best interests of all parties, including the US that if a revaluation of the yuan occurs then the CCP makes sure it happens slowly, or better yet that it happens at a later time when China's economy is more developped.