the northeast doctrine

how would china defend herself or attempt to assert control over the russian far east which she once possesed before, should war ever break out in the northeast(border region with russia)?. will the navy be of any major significance in that theater? will the type 99 MBT prove its worth against russia?

eldarlmari said:

how would china defend herself or attempt to assert control over the russian far east which she once possesed before, should war ever break out in the northeast(border region with russia)?. will the navy be of any major significance in that theater? will the type 99 MBT prove its worth against russia?

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Since this is a very hypothetical question as most of the border disputes have been settled through deplomacy.

The way I see it is that as shown by the Japanese invasion of Siberia, Siberia can be considered an Ideal tank country. Without much natural defensive positions in the grassland and plataues past the Stanovoy range, Russia had stationed a large garrison there.

On the other hand, northern China is like the Ruhr to Germany, heavily industuralized and densely populated, given it's many cities and high value status, China had stationed most of her best troops there.

Russia will have a hard time invading and holding Northern China due to the immense garrison there with many defensible position and a hostile populance. Russia can do massive damage to the Chinese industial and economical potential by invading northern China.

China will have a hard time breaking through the Russian garrisons mainly due to the massive deployments of armor and anti armor platforms in eastern siberia. But if China gets through to the northern siberian plateau, Chinese armies can pretty much roll up to the back side of Moscow - without encountering much resistance or doing much damage to the Russian economy/industries as most of them were in western Russia.

So, the way I call it is, each side will not be dumb enough to start a war as their defensive positions are so strong.
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P.s. regarding the Navy, oh yes, navel intervention is a significant wild card. if Russia can convince China that she can land a raiding party anywhere on the Chinese coast will divert alot of Chinese material and personal to garrison costal cities - as the KMT raids in the 50s-60s have shown.

Alternatively, if the Chinese can convince the Russians that she can land a sizible force behind the russian defensive positions and cut off the one and only supply railway (just as the UN forces have done in north korea) - Russia will have to divert force into the reserves to guard against this and reduce the front line units facing the Chinese offensive.

p.p.s note that the Chinese and Russian railway have a break of guage too, logistics would inherently be delayed at border crossings -> tempting air strike targets don't you think?

nahhh it won't be any war between China and Russia on Eastern Siberia .... most of resources from eastern Siberia go to China anyway and most products sold in eastern Siberia are made in China, ... so win-win situation. I believe eventually, perhaps in 50 years ... eastern Siberia will voluntarily join by then superpower China, including Mongolia

@ antiterror13
I think that's a joke, the Mongolians like their independence and no Russian government could sell the Far East.


Summary:
Geography and nature give the Russians a really well-defensible position and the only power I would fear as a Russian soldier in Siberia would a joint attack of Canada, Sweden, Norway, Suomi, Greenland and the US, these would be real enemies, but a Chinese attempt would leave many colorful dots in a white landscape.

The Japanese invasions of the Russian Far East show success only during political turmoil. When the Japanese tried against a consolidated Russia, they failed big time, despite that the Red Army was at its low. In my opinion, the Soviet-Finnish Winter War is a good example how things could turn out, but this time against a force much less outnumbered.
Russia does have her elite units in Siberia, who defend Russian settled lands with much of the countries natural wealth. There's a wet season when tanks won't make much progress and there's a cold season when native troops have a heck of mobility on skis (and can shoot on the move). Because the Russians do have settlements and bases farther north, they do have strategic depth and no matter how far a first Chinese advance goes, they won't be able to clear the northern forest or even the North East passage supply route with major rivers or ice roads running south. With the onset of first snow there'll be a fast retreat to pre-war positions and some Chinese generals will get fired.
It's possible that Chinese troops could try to train for that special environment, but such preparations could hardly be concealed to the Russians and Canada or Alaska would be rather inopportune targets for this specific ambition. So I doubt a significant Chinese army could be adapted and launch a surprise attack. If things start to go really wrong for the Russians, well they have enough submarines to end all Chinese naval contacts and Taiwan wouldn't let such an opportunity for a declaration of independance slip by. Futhermore, all disenfranchised minorities in China will suddenly have a rather easy access to weapons and insurgency training. Let's not forget that Russia is a major power with a respected military that defeated all invasions but Subutai's (who came in the winter).
There have been some Chinese-Russian clashes in the region, none went wrong for the Russians. A real military defeat of the Russians there was the Japanese attack on Port Arthur. This was rather a naval defeat of an ill-managed and prepared fleet and the subsequent surrender of military base without any hopes for resupply.

Concerning the Chinese navy, they would have to block the North East passage supply route and storm or raze every Russian harbour and naval base around Siberia. It will be really interesting because finally a submarine heavy fleet will be able to operate at its best with a nice air cover from the hinterland. So I count on many sunken ships and I would consider it far easier to fight the US for naval world domination than fighting Russia for the Far East.

This is all theoritical but,

What about a limited territorial grab that aimed at all the territory Tsar russia took away post 1850?
That geography is not anywhere worse than what's in heilongjiang Province in winter (-40 deg C).

taking of "sea cucumber cliffs" would effectively put Russian Far east fleet out of action.

Battle of Tsushima II?

OK, the naval battle of Tsushima was because of Port Arthur, a base in foreign land, under siege. The Russian Far East is Russian homeland and the most populated spot in the furthest Russian East.
Some settings are different now. Russian naval surface and subsurface units can all use the North East passage and would be faster on the scene than a US fleet for a possible support of Taiwan.
Russia would be in a very good position to operate all their military assets via a safe supply route along the North East passage and down the great rivers/ice ways in Siberia. They can block all Chinese counterattacks at the Bering Strait with subs and intelligent naval mines and sensors.
A successful occupation of at least parts of the Far East by China is a very likely event and will result in Russian refugees giving interviews on TV. Look at the long term effect of the Great Patriotic War and you will realize that no Russian gouvernment will let this chance slip to brandish their weapons. Tsushima for example had severe repercussions for regime stability, as the government realized and it was considered that the next major war had to be successful because the ongoing string of revolts afterwards made things very unstable. Well, WWI turned out badly for the regime that gambled on a win through numbers for their own survival. So while I don't doubt initial Chinese success, every Russian government will fight them teeth and nail and I would not exclude limited use of tactical nukes against installations of strategic importance. Furthermore, the great Russian investions into subsurface warfare will likely pay off in severe Chinese handicaps in trade or even a full blown naval blockade.

Ok,
so you still haven't answered my first point which is climate for much of the area referred to in my post is not as bad as you present them to be.
any meaningful counter attack would come from Urals via Siberian Railways and that is a nightmare for maintaining airdefence security over that route.

and second.
yeah sending boats down into ice caps all that.
if one depends one's basing support on others thae it is subject to the fickle winds f geopolitics.

If we discount all the geopolitical factors,
The fact is if chinese really like Sea cucumbers then Vladivostok, russian far east fleets primary base of operation, would not be available and the nearest big port would be couple of thousands miles away. but chinese fleet and forces would be near their basing and primary support.

yep Battle of Tsushima II.

also, During Russo-Japanese War, Japan was aligned with Great Britain and had its support. The Baltic Fleet has to round the cap because Britain would not let it use Suez.

who knows what would happen in this crazy world of ours in 20 years.

I considered all issues answered. You should by the way take a look at some Cold War maps, there are plenty of naval installations along the North East route far in the north and Russia does have naval bases in South Asia at places China will have a hard time to interdict. So actually I don't worry about the Russian capability to emplace a submarine and naval mine blockade of all Chinese SLoC. Sorry, but a Chinese military attempt against Russia without the back-up by a major naval power = USA is futile or better compareable to trying to fight a war with self-strangulation to be certain you get supplies from nowhere.

Kurt said:

I considered all issues answered. You should by the way take a look at some Cold War maps, there are plenty of naval installations along the North East route far in the north and Russia does have naval bases in South Asia at places China will have a hard time to interdict. So actually I don't worry about the Russian capability to emplace a submarine and naval mine blockade of all Chinese SLoC. Sorry, but a Chinese military attempt against Russia without the back-up by a major naval power = USA is futile or better compareable to trying to fight a war with self-strangulation to be certain you get supplies from nowhere.

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what if when this happens China became naval power only next to if not on par with USN?

Those bases in Far north and the bases in South Asia are not extensive enough allow for sustained actions. by the rate RuN are going the subs that puts into sea can not sustain this action long enough to make a difference. China prob has more merchant ships than Russians that Have in Torpedos. Right Now!

and no, you still hasn;t answered all questions.

one of your arguments is that terrain and weather would force a chinese land retreat.

but the fact is a limited engagement up to 1850s geographical border would not let chinese encounter these terrains. while deny Russia any major buildup centers.

Kurt said:

OK, the naval battle of Tsushima was because of Port Arthur, a base in foreign land, under siege. The Russian Far East is Russian homeland and the most populated spot in the furthest Russian East.
Some settings are different now. Russian naval surface and subsurface units can all use the North East passage and would be faster on the scene than a US fleet for a possible support of Taiwan.
Russia would be in a very good position to operate all their military assets via a safe supply route along the North East passage and down the great rivers/ice ways in Siberia. They can block all Chinese counterattacks at the Bering Strait with subs and intelligent naval mines and sensors.
A successful occupation of at least parts of the Far East by China is a very likely event and will result in Russian refugees giving interviews on TV. Look at the long term effect of the Great Patriotic War and you will realize that no Russian gouvernment will let this chance slip to brandish their weapons. Tsushima for example had severe repercussions for regime stability, as the government realized and it was considered that the next major war had to be successful because the ongoing string of revolts afterwards made things very unstable. Well, WWI turned out badly for the regime that gambled on a win through numbers for their own survival. So while I don't doubt initial Chinese success, every Russian government will fight them teeth and nail and I would not exclude limited use of tactical nukes against installations of strategic importance. Furthermore, the great Russian investions into subsurface warfare will likely pay off in severe Chinese handicaps in trade or even a full blown naval blockade.

Click to expand...

I feel you have severely overrated the Russian's ability to resist. The GPW was a great victory with immense losses to the Russians. Russian state archives shows how peculiar the situation always was until '44. Germany was always very close to victory as Russia was rapidly running out of men and arms.

And you are comparing Chinese resistance versus Russian resistance, I would find it hard to argue that Russian determination is stronger. If we take the mongol conquest out of context, Russia resisted Mongolia for 3 years before being a vassal state of Mongolia, China resisted Mongolia for 72 years prior to surrendering.

Russia and especially Stalin ceded territory for diplomacy and there is no reason why the new Russia would not. Soviet Russia ceded territory to Poland during the Soviet-polish war in the 1920s. Tsarist Russia gave up claims to territory contested to the Manchus 1600s. The Crimean war and russo-japanese war also showed that Russia was willing to accept defeat and sign peace treaties on very poor terms.

Also, I doubt it that the Russian naval assets can mobilize quicker than American ones. Nor is the Russian pacific fleet particularly strong, being made up of 5 destroyers 1 cruiser and 14 attack subs (and some boomers). In comparison, the forward element of the US pacific fleet consists of 1 CV, 2 CG, 7 DD, 1 LHD, 1 LPD, 4 SSN and 2 boomers. In comparison, what china is deploying in the theater is 26 DD, 48 frigates and 62 subs. Granted, many Chinese ships are of older design, but so are the Russians.

The North East Passage can also be closed during winter and it is just as suspectable to Chinese underwater warfare as you have suggested for the bering straits for the Russians