Japan current status
This is what I found on latest statistics on Aircrafts.
80 F2
213 F15J
155 F4J
77 F1
Total 331.
Sooner or Later Japan needs to replace their fighters, the only problem is what kind of fighers they are going to choose. Or what kind of aircrafts are available to them.
There are few options for replacement
1.F22
2.JSF
3.F3
4.F15 or F16(New)
5.European Fighters
Reasons for new aircrafts
F15J are limited and aging in Japan. Most of the F15 are over twenty years old, so for next ten to fifteen years they will also need to replace.
F2 are undispute a good fighter, but unit cost of F2 exceed 108 million. That is about 30 million more than a block 60 F16. F2 also have maintentain and radar problems, so it is failure due to cost and performing not up to expectations. As a consquence, JASDF make a huge reduction in order. So future order seems to be in doubt.
F1 and F4 are aging, so no doubt they need to replace soon.
In the other thread we already cover the issue of purchase, so I will only compare the F22 vs F35 seem they are the best options now.
JSF VS F22
The Raptors' main task is to get air superiority. While the JSF main task is to attack ground targets, I would bet Raptor will win the air to air combat with the JSF. Eventhrough Raptor also use as air to ground bombs and some missiles. The JSF is a cheaper multi-role platform. They are like aircrafts such as F15 and F16.
Positives for JSF
1.cheap
2.better Air to Ground capability. Anti-ship is important for japan.
3.Still have decent Air to Air capability, and should be eoungh to defense against most and everything else that the Asia nations have.
4. ready to export.
Positives for F22
1.more capable than JSF especially in Air to Air.
2.better at penetrate the air defence.
3.Longer range.
Negatives for JSF
1.may need to wait until 2011-2015 at earlies.
2.too many others countries will be operate JSF such as Australia and maybe Korea.
Negatives for F22
1.may get downgrade version.
2.very expensive.
3.Don't know if US will ever release it.
F3
Positives
1.Self reliability.
2.Great help to the Japans' engineers and tech industry.
3.Gain more experience in making next generation Fighter.
4.Export possability.
5.Have a option to built Multi-platform.
Negatives
1.Costly.
2.May fault to meet expectation.
3.Probably rely heavyly on US, so not much different from import or built license planes.
4.Could buy better aircrafts with all the money spends.
Actually, it may be a good idea for Japan to built their indengous fighter program since Japan will learn a lot of technology. Eventhrough F2 never are a great success but it did served a milestone for Japan indengous program. The biggest problem is this new F3 program maybe very expensive to start with, and Japan will rely heavyly on US help. So will it make sense for Japan to start their own, since the F2 is a failure. I would rather think Japan might be reluctant to do it again, but if they do have the courage. They should start as soon as possible.
New F15 or F16
Since Japan have operated similar fighter such as F2 and F15, new version F15 may be good idea. But since Korea and singapore go to this platform, Japan may decide not to do the same. They might feel the need for something better, they have more funds to use. Secondary, they have the options to buy more F2 or F2upgrade. These new version of aircrafts eventhrough more powerful than early version, but they are at least one generation behind F22. And they are not as good as Tyhoon or Rafale in many areas, the biggest problem is they are probably limited upgrade available from this old platform.
Europe fighters
Political impossible. But what the heck, I will do a comparison.
Tyhoon Vs Rafale VS JSF Vs F22
1.Rafale is better in the air to ground area, mainly on account of its heavier load carring ability than Tyhoon.
2.Dogfight- either of them will have edge. Although the lack of Rafale thrust gives EF2000 a small accerleration advantage, but sustained turn rates are about the same.
3.The EF2000 thrust advantage is much more at the supersonic speeds, but Rafale have the better RCS so Tyhoon might have detect Rafale later than Rafale could do.
4.In BVR, F35 is better than both the Tyhoon and Rafale.
5.F35 is more stealthy than other two.
6.The F35 was never intended to be maneuverable, so Rafale and Tyhoon will way better in dogfight. The Rafale and Tyhoon both have canards to help in maneuverability and more unstable airframes.
7.The F22 will have better agility, speed, stealth, if it come to dogfight, it is hard to say.
I think it is rather unlikely for Japan to choose Rafale or Tyhoon over JSF or F22, because the political situation is not allow. Even without the political problem F22 will better choice than Tyhoon and Rafale. JSF will be also more reasonable choose done to the fact in today world Stealthy and BVR is much more important.
In conclusion
The most important fact of the matter is that the Raptor was never built for export, so some modification needs to carry out before export. But it really depends on what Japan's needs, a cheap muli-role platform or Air superiority fighter.
If F2 ever is a great success, Japan do not need any new fighters anytime soon. But now I honestly think Japan needs F22/F3 and F35 , because their F15 fleets is aging, and they need a good air to air fighter to replace such as F22 or F3. The aging F4 and F1 fleets lead them to need an Air combat with good Air ground capabilities, and this fall on the F2 and F35.
This is what I found on latest statistics on Aircrafts.
80 F2
213 F15J
155 F4J
77 F1
Total 331.
Sooner or Later Japan needs to replace their fighters, the only problem is what kind of fighers they are going to choose. Or what kind of aircrafts are available to them.
There are few options for replacement
1.F22
2.JSF
3.F3
4.F15 or F16(New)
5.European Fighters
Reasons for new aircrafts
F15J are limited and aging in Japan. Most of the F15 are over twenty years old, so for next ten to fifteen years they will also need to replace.
F2 are undispute a good fighter, but unit cost of F2 exceed 108 million. That is about 30 million more than a block 60 F16. F2 also have maintentain and radar problems, so it is failure due to cost and performing not up to expectations. As a consquence, JASDF make a huge reduction in order. So future order seems to be in doubt.
F1 and F4 are aging, so no doubt they need to replace soon.
In the other thread we already cover the issue of purchase, so I will only compare the F22 vs F35 seem they are the best options now.
JSF VS F22
The Raptors' main task is to get air superiority. While the JSF main task is to attack ground targets, I would bet Raptor will win the air to air combat with the JSF. Eventhrough Raptor also use as air to ground bombs and some missiles. The JSF is a cheaper multi-role platform. They are like aircrafts such as F15 and F16.
Positives for JSF
1.cheap
2.better Air to Ground capability. Anti-ship is important for japan.
3.Still have decent Air to Air capability, and should be eoungh to defense against most and everything else that the Asia nations have.
4. ready to export.
Positives for F22
1.more capable than JSF especially in Air to Air.
2.better at penetrate the air defence.
3.Longer range.
Negatives for JSF
1.may need to wait until 2011-2015 at earlies.
2.too many others countries will be operate JSF such as Australia and maybe Korea.
Negatives for F22
1.may get downgrade version.
2.very expensive.
3.Don't know if US will ever release it.
F3
Positives
1.Self reliability.
2.Great help to the Japans' engineers and tech industry.
3.Gain more experience in making next generation Fighter.
4.Export possability.
5.Have a option to built Multi-platform.
Negatives
1.Costly.
2.May fault to meet expectation.
3.Probably rely heavyly on US, so not much different from import or built license planes.
4.Could buy better aircrafts with all the money spends.
Actually, it may be a good idea for Japan to built their indengous fighter program since Japan will learn a lot of technology. Eventhrough F2 never are a great success but it did served a milestone for Japan indengous program. The biggest problem is this new F3 program maybe very expensive to start with, and Japan will rely heavyly on US help. So will it make sense for Japan to start their own, since the F2 is a failure. I would rather think Japan might be reluctant to do it again, but if they do have the courage. They should start as soon as possible.
New F15 or F16
Since Japan have operated similar fighter such as F2 and F15, new version F15 may be good idea. But since Korea and singapore go to this platform, Japan may decide not to do the same. They might feel the need for something better, they have more funds to use. Secondary, they have the options to buy more F2 or F2upgrade. These new version of aircrafts eventhrough more powerful than early version, but they are at least one generation behind F22. And they are not as good as Tyhoon or Rafale in many areas, the biggest problem is they are probably limited upgrade available from this old platform.
Europe fighters
Political impossible. But what the heck, I will do a comparison.
Tyhoon Vs Rafale VS JSF Vs F22
1.Rafale is better in the air to ground area, mainly on account of its heavier load carring ability than Tyhoon.
2.Dogfight- either of them will have edge. Although the lack of Rafale thrust gives EF2000 a small accerleration advantage, but sustained turn rates are about the same.
3.The EF2000 thrust advantage is much more at the supersonic speeds, but Rafale have the better RCS so Tyhoon might have detect Rafale later than Rafale could do.
4.In BVR, F35 is better than both the Tyhoon and Rafale.
5.F35 is more stealthy than other two.
6.The F35 was never intended to be maneuverable, so Rafale and Tyhoon will way better in dogfight. The Rafale and Tyhoon both have canards to help in maneuverability and more unstable airframes.
7.The F22 will have better agility, speed, stealth, if it come to dogfight, it is hard to say.
I think it is rather unlikely for Japan to choose Rafale or Tyhoon over JSF or F22, because the political situation is not allow. Even without the political problem F22 will better choice than Tyhoon and Rafale. JSF will be also more reasonable choose done to the fact in today world Stealthy and BVR is much more important.
In conclusion
The most important fact of the matter is that the Raptor was never built for export, so some modification needs to carry out before export. But it really depends on what Japan's needs, a cheap muli-role platform or Air superiority fighter.
If F2 ever is a great success, Japan do not need any new fighters anytime soon. But now I honestly think Japan needs F22/F3 and F35 , because their F15 fleets is aging, and they need a good air to air fighter to replace such as F22 or F3. The aging F4 and F1 fleets lead them to need an Air combat with good Air ground capabilities, and this fall on the F2 and F35.
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