The Civil War in Libya

plawolf said:

Well I also doubt that any Chinese arms manufactures could have gotten away with exporting millions of dollars of arms without approval from the proper authorities.

This raises some troubling questions in terms of China's arm export industry.

If the firms knew they would need approval, then it would have been pointless for them to even hold the meetings with Qaddaffi reps if they didn't think Beijing would approve the exports.

My guess is that the firms believed they could have used one or more of the neighbouring countries as cover, so they would pay off some officials there to generate orders for weapons which are intended for Qaddaffi. This should allow them to get the export clearance and once the weapons are in those neighbouring countries, they could be transfered to Qaddaffi forces via a third party. But Chinese arms controls should not be that easy to circumvent, and needs to be improved.

I really doubt the Chinese government would authorize such a move as it goes against Chinese interests to prolong the conflict (disrupting oil supplies) and also because Qaddaffi has had an anti-Chinese streak that Beijing would not miss once he is gone.

There is the playing both sides suggestion, but in mid-July when these deals were going on, it was obvious to everyone that Qaddaffi was loosing the war badly. That is the time to jump ship, not hop on his bandwagon. It was 'A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse' kinda time for Qaddaffi, and no promise he would make could be taken seriously.

Of course, the outside possibility is that this was all a massive scam.

The Chinese companies knew that Qaddaffi's days are numbered and that he is desperate, so it could be that they agreed to sell him arms only to scam him out of however much the firms can get him to pay upfront. They can then keep that money and deliver nothing with zero chance of being sued or otherwise penalized. Morally bankrupt, but it would be the easist money they will ever make.

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PanAsian said:

Or this whole story may just be more 'China threat' accusations from those intervening to get their way in Libya.

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ToxSic said:

In Italy's and certain French and British contributions (jets to tear gas) were at times before the riots and finally revolts perhaps? I am getting the impression from the articles that these sales were being discussed during the revolts.

Are the I sort of doubt McCain's "offer" would have passed congressional approval. Was this and the French reference you made occurring after the Libyans actually revolted in arms?

On the other hand, I am a bit confused. From one of the news footages regarding this topic of Chinese State weapon firms dealing with Qadaffy, they showed what I believe was a rebel opening a box of arms that came from China. I know that China previously sold certain arms to Libya so I am curious was this spin/reference or the rebel's evidence that China may have actually sold those after or during the revolution and after arms embargo took place - as the issue seems to revolve around the possible violation of an embargo.

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Heat-Seeking Missiles Are Missing From Libyan Arms Stockpile
By ROD NORDLAND and C. J. CHIVERS

TRIPOLI, Libya — The sign on the wall reads “Schoolbook Printing and Storage Warehouse,” but the fact that the double gates in the wall have been crudely ripped off suggests that something more interesting might be inside.

It turns out that the only books to be found in any of the three large buildings in the walled compound are manuals — how to fire rocket launchers and wire-guided missiles, among others. The buildings are actually disguised warehouses full of munitions — mortar shells, artillery rounds, anti-tank missiles and more — thousands of pieces of military ordnance that are completely unguarded more than two weeks after the fall of the capital.

Perhaps most interesting of all is what is no longer there, but until recent days apparently was: shoulder-fired heat-seeking missiles of the type that could be used by terrorists to shoot down civilian airliners. American authorities have long been concerned that Libyan missiles could easily find their way onto the black market.

These missiles, mostly SA-7b Grails, as NATO refers to them, have been spotted in Libya before and are well known to have been sold to the government of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi by former Eastern bloc countries. The evidence at the schoolbook warehouse confirms just how large those quantities were. It also raises questions about how many of them may have been purloined by rebels, criminals or smugglers.

Matthew Schroeder, who researches heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles and their proliferation for the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, said the discovery of yet another looted arms depot in Libya was cause for concern, especially depots that contained what security specialists call Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems, or Manpads.

Western governments and nongovernment organizations have repeatedly asked and prodded the rebel government, the Transitional National Council, to take steps to secure the vast stockpiles of arms that it has inherited, apparently to little avail.

“Claims that depots holding Manpads and other dangerous weapons are still not being properly secured are very worrisome and should be thoroughly investigated,” Mr. Schroeder said. “In cases where stockpile security is found to be lacking, immediate steps should be taken to correct any deficiencies.”

In Washington, President Obama’s top counterterrorism official, John O. Brennan, said that the spread of shoulder-fired missiles and other weapons from Libya’s arsenal posed “a lot of concerns,” and that the United States had pressed the rebel government to secure weapons stockpiles. “Obviously, there are a lot of parts of that country right now that are ungoverned,” he said at a security conference.

A senior American military officer who follows Libya closely said it was puzzling that there had been so few documented instances in which Libyan loyalist troops launched shoulder-fired missiles at NATO aircraft. “I’m not sure what that means,” the officer said. “Fewer systems than we thought? Systems are inoperable? Few in Libya know how to operate them?”

The officer said it was also unclear whether Al Qaeda or other extremist groups had acquired the missiles, though he said intelligence analysts were assuming they had. “But if they do, why haven’t they used or threatened to use?” the officer said. “It’s all very murky right now.”

On Wednesday, a reporter for The New York Times, as well as a researcher for Human Rights Watch and other reporters who visited the scene, found 10 crates that had held two missiles each lying opened and empty. The crates were clearly labeled as coming from Russia.

“Other countries know these weapons are on the loose, and they will be trying to get their hands on them,” said a researcher for Human Rights Watch, Peter Bouckaert.

He was particularly concerned with one crate, labeled “9M342,” the Russian designation for the SA-24 heat-seeking missile.

“These were some of the most advanced weaponry the Russians made,” Mr. Bouckaert said. Referring to the rebels who have taken control of Tripoli and to the international community, he added, “They need to get people here to secure some of this.”

The SA-24 can be mounted on vehicle-based launchers or fired from a person’s shoulder via a much smaller launcher known as a grip stock. The latter configuration, of the same class of weapon as the American-made Stinger, is considered the gravest potential danger to civilian aircraft because the weapon is readily portable and relatively simple to conceal and use.

No grip stocks for SA-24s have yet been found in Libya, and the Russian manufacturer of the SA-24 has previously said that it did not sell any grip stocks to Colonel Qaddafi’s military. The SA-24s, it said, were sold only with vehicle-mounted launchers.

The SA-7, however, is a shoulder-fired missile. A Soviet-era weapon dating to the 1960s that remains in wide use and circulation, it has been implicated in several attacks on airliners over the years, including a failed attack on an Israeli charter plane.

Former Eastern bloc nations call it a Strela, for the Russian word for arrow. Nine of the freshly emptied crates found Wednesday were marked with the Eastern bloc designation for the Strela: 9M32M.

Libyan rebels have occasionally been spotted carrying SA-7s, though the weapon has no evident practical use to them, given that the Qaddafi air force was grounded by NATO months ago and that the only military aircraft confirmed in the Libyan skies have been the NATO planes supporting the rebels’ advances.

Although only nine crates holding two SA-7s each were found in the schoolbook warehouse, those crates were a part of what evidently were nine different consignments.

In all, those consignments added up to a total of 2,445 crates delivered from Russia to Tripoli, containing 4,890 missiles, according to markings on the crates. But there was no way to ascertain whether the other crates in those consignments had previously been in this warehouse, or in some other part of the country. Many of the other missiles may have been issued to the Qaddafi forces in the field, which for months had a need to defend against aerial attack.

The Times has previously documented that 5,270 SA-7b missiles had been delivered to Libya. Some of those shipments were part of the same consignments found Wednesday. But according to the stenciled markings on the newly found crates, at least 2,322 of the missiles appear to be from previously undiscovered consignments, meaning that at least 7,592 of the missiles had been sent to Libya. Estimates of the true total run as high as 20,000 such missiles.

A spokesman for the Libyan rebel military, Abdulrahman Busin, said the rebel authorities were aware of the schoolbook warehouse, which is only about a quarter-mile from the headquarters of the Khamis Brigade, an elite loyalist military unit headed by a son of Colonel Qaddafi. Mr. Busin said the rebel “military police” had probably removed the missiles.

“The military police were aware of this and they took charge of it; they’re the ones who secured it,” Mr. Busin said.

But if that was the case, he was unable to explain why the facility remained unguarded on Wednesday. And efforts were unsuccessful in contacting the head of the military police to confirm if his forces indeed had the missing missiles.

Rod Nordland reported from Tripoli, Libya, and C. J. Chivers from the United States. Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.

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delft said:

Pointblank writes:
"In the end, the Chinese have to be way more careful about whom they sell weapons to, as those weapons could end up in the hands of people who may have an agenda against the Chinese, such as rebel or separatist groups, or maybe even criminal organizations."
That goes for every weapons exporter. I don't think I know of any that was always successful in this respect.

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Finn McCool said:

All of the arms sales in question were, I think, after the revolt and arms embargo. So before the Feb 17 uprising, Qaddafi was flirting with both the US and the Chinese for weapons, and the French for Mirage-related upgrades. China had sold various weapons to Libya in previous years.

On the subject of rebel reprisals against Africans, here's my impression of what the situation is: Qaddafi employed a lot of mercenaries from African countries and Saharan Tuareg tribes, and he (or people in his security forces) also forced African migrant workers to fight for him. As a result, rebels and rebel sympathizers have tended to stop black people at checkpoints, and to detain people with African ID cards. People have been killed in this sort of violence, it's impossible to say how many. I'm sure robbery and all sorts of other crimes are rampant. Rebel prisoner handling is way more organized than at the start of the uprising, so I've seen a lot of footage of makeshift prisons and detention details holding mixed crowds of Libyans and Africans, some of them heavily African. To say that the rebels are completely racist is pretty incorrect though; many migrants have been freed, and black Libyan rebels are not uncommon. On the subject of rape, well, that's a hot potato in terms of truth because allegations of rape seem to be a particularly effective propaganda allegation. If you all might remember, a few months ago it was the rebels going around claiming thousands of women had been raped, Viagra pills captured on Qaddafi troops, etc. I would reckon that Qaddafi troops did commit rape in some cases, including foreign mercenaries. But I think that those allegations are turning out to be exaggerated by the media hype/propaganda campaign (less "verified" than people claimed). So I'd be suspicious of another permutation of the story, although it does sound quite plausible and is probably grounded in some truth.

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delft said:

An interesting blogpost by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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I wonder what Libya will look like in 12 months time.

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MwRYum said:

It'd be lucky if they don't tear themselves apart, more off-shot if they could hold any fair and just general election within that period...

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