The Chinese Space Station International Crews

As stated above, the list of cutting edge weaponries first revealed in Iran before being tested in North Korea have further increased recently:


▲ Captured U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial system (UAS) in Iranian exhibition. 2023


▲ North Korean reverse engineered SAETPYOL-4 (샛별-4 UAV) long-endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial system (UAS). 2023


▲ New Iranian Shahid 149 Gaza unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). 2023


▲ North Korean reverse engineered SAETPYOL-9 (샛별-9 UAV) armed, multi-mission, medium-altitude, long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft.

To better prepare the Iranian opinion to the future astronauts' visit to the Chinese Space Station, Iran's Tasnim News has launched a dedicated space section.
What is new is that it features an illustration of an Iranian astronaut in space suit.


▲ Tasnimnews new header featuring an astronaut. 2023

So could Iran launch a spacecraft into LEO anytime soon?

While the Chollima-1 SLV will be similar to the Chinese CZ-2 D SLV in payload capacity once improved with better upper stage, it will require several years before it becomes a human-rated launcher. It will have to demonstrate at least 5 to 10 successful launches in a row.

Meanwhile, the Unha SLV and Safir-2 SLV have totaled ~5 launches and ~6 launches respectively, with 2 North Korean successful orbital insertions.

Out of ~6 launches, the first stage of the Safir-2 SLV has performed successfully at least ~4 times.

This means that as of 2023 the first stage of the Safir/Unha SLV can be considered reliable.

Therefore, a heavy space launcher based on the Safir-2 SLV first stage could launch a three astronauts crew into space sooner than the Chollima-1 SLV and Soroush SLV.

By following the Soviet vintage Soyuz SLV architecture, of clustering 4 core booster to the central core, while very clumsy, could allow Iran to place a multi astronauts spacecraft into space before India.

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In this regard, it is noteworthy that 11 years earlier back in 2012, such strategy was already disclosed in Iranian space forums:

Known as ARYASP SPACECRAFT by SOHEIL in 2012.


Then the same username made contradictory statements 2 years later:


Usual caveat applies, as impersonators from enemy nation's troll farms can not be ruled out!

On the other hand, this could also be interpreted by the change of strategy and priority at the Iranian Space Agency.

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Then this week's disclosure of a new Iranian Soyuz project, based on the Sarir SLV.


The human-rated Soroush SLV will not be available before a decade.

Iranians will really have to prove how far one can go with Hwasong-7/Rodong tech.

With this project for a heavy version of Iran's planned Sarir SLV which will use four Safir-2/Simorgh engine clusters (consisting of four Ghadr/Rodong engines each) as boosters.

Comes in the context of Iran's efforts to revive the country's space program both through increased funding and improved coordination.

And foremost thanks to its new found friendship with its northern Russian ally.

With this influx of expertise, it is expected that an Iranian Soyuz will place a multi-astronaut crew into space and dock with the Chinese Space Station within a few couple of years, and before India's Gaganyaan maiden launch.

Meanwhile Israel has significantly upgraded its diplomatic ties with China.

Trying to curry favor with Xi Jinping, and possibly secure a mission by an Israeli astronaut aboard the Chinese Space Station after a state visit in Beijing this year.


▲ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) holds an autographed copy of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's book. 2023

Introduction

For every built rocket, there are dozens of projects that never made it off the drawing board. Some were just quick sketches, some involved extensive background work, design development, and model tests. Some were just numbers, some got nicknames like 'Ghasedak', 'Tir', 'Mehr' or 'Iris'.

Sometimes old designs spark new ideas, sometimes the development processes are still applicable today even though the old solutions are now technically obsolete. There's still some value in those dusty project folders and hand-drawn sketches in the Iran Space Agency's (ISA) archives.


Some say the best rockets are always the ones that get built. Even through ISA often pushes the boundaries of space launchers design in new projects, the technical solutions ISA propose are supported by experience from built launchers. If needed, ISA has the reference material to prove it.

Of course, knowing only your own projects thoroughly is just the beginning. What if someone succeeds despite breaking every design principle you had carefully perfected over the past decades? You learn what you can from that, too. Perhaps some hard limits can be adjusted a bit.

Sarir Heavy SLV project

Advantage of the Sarir Heavy SLV:

- Optimized with higher chamber pressure

- Produced in quantity (20 upscaled Hwasong-7 engines)

- Kept it expendable, by low cost

How advanced is the Sarir Heavy SLV project?

Why do Russian R7-derived rockets (Soyuz) use those oddly asymetrical boosters?

The R 7 family of rockets which includes all flavours of Soyuz were derived from the Soviet R 7 ICBM which itself had wedge shaped boosters initially.

Early conceptual designs for the R 7 had classical cylinders but the conical boosters were chosen primarily for aerodynamic advantages.

For a given volume, cone would have a larger frontal reference area than a cylinder which means more drag but the better drag coefficient of the wedge shaped booster dominates for the advantage.

The same volume cylinder would also be very shorter in length hanging around the second stage tail which is apparently a poor aerodynamic shape.

The conically wrapped booster shape is also attributed to the aerodynamic stability in flight.


Meanwhile all other space powers produce boosters that are cylindrical because they’re cost effective to manufacture.

The boosters are usually identical to one of the core stages making single line production possible.

So why can't the Soyuz use cylindrical boosters? Because unlike most advanced rockets, whose engines can swivel on 2 axis to provide the thrust vector control, the vintage Soyuz attitude and roll control is only assumed by a pair of small verniers on each boosters.

This means the pair of verniers produce only about 10% of the 4 static nozzles' (four-chamber engine) thrust.

Compared this to the 100% of thrust available for an advanced engine that can swivel.


To better illustrate the reason behind the clumsy Soyuz design, the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM had initially a conical skirt added at the bottom part of the missile, which correspond to the engine bay section.

The added drag at the lower part helped in the trial phase to add aerodynamic stability in flight to the missile.

After the trial phase, the conical skirt was removed for a cylindrical engine bay, which produces less drag, hence more range and heavier payload.


Since Safir-2 SLV is basically following the architecture of the Soyuz core (second) stage, with 4 verniers and 4 main static nozzles (four-chamber engine), its thrust vector control is weak.

If 4 large diameters strap-on side boosters are added, it will need increased aerodynamic stability.

Since grid fins such as the one found in the Soviet N1 lunar rocket would increase the total maximum diameter of the rocket forcing to build an even larger launchpad, Iran's engineers have opted for another more compact technological solution.

Instead of a single large cumbersome grid fin or planar fin, each boosters are aerodynamically stabilized by a set of 8 smaller planar fins.

This solution has been previously implemented with the Shahid Hajj Qassem MRBM.


▲ Iran's Shahid Hajj Qassem MRBM aerodynamically stabilized with 8 planar fins.

Therefore, each strap-on side boosters of the Sarir Heavy SLV has been fitted with a set of 6 smaller planar fins.



▲ Model of the Sarir Heavy SLV. Each strap-on side boosters of the Sarir Heavy SLV have a set of 6 smaller planar fins.· Aug 21, 2023

This detail alone shows that the project was probably advanced enough to enter the test flight phase.

Maiden launch in North Korea

Commercial satellite imagery indicates that the Tonghae Satellite Launch Center on North Korea’s east coast was planned to support an undisclosed heavy-lift space launcher.

Construction efforts for a third launch pad began in 2011 with a ~10 meters diameter circular flame exhaust bucket.

This means it could support the launch a 3 x 2.4 meters diameter rocket corresponding to the diameter size of the Sarir Heavy SLV.

Works were suspended in 2013 for unknown reasons. But probably due to the election of Hassan Rouhani who served as the seventh president of Iran from 2013 to 2021.

Eight years of stagnation for the Iranian civilian space program.

Since the election of President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021, the Sarir Heavy project seems relaunched.


▲ Satellite imagery of the North Korean Tonghae SLC LC-3 with ~10 meters diameter circular flame exhaust bucket.

Coordinates of the Launch Complex 3 (under construction)
40°51'29.7"N, 129°41'11.7"E
40.858249°N, 129.686591°E

https://www.google.com/maps/place/40%C2%B051'29.7%22N+129%C2%B041'11.7%22E/@40.8582504,129.6858447,286m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en


Conclusion

Currently North Korea is focussed on developing a more advanced space launcher of the CZ-2F class, that would eventually be used for its manned space programme.

If the Sarir Heavy SLV project is relaunched, Iran will have to build a new launchpad in the southern Chabahar SLC and flight test it from Iranian soil.

▲ OSINT community has noted the lower section of HS-17 is not flared like prior HS-17 tested but is much more streamlined. Mar 17, 2023

Of course, the mighty 80-tf Paektusan-1D engine series is fully gimballed, and can easily overcome any major aerodynamic instability, unlike the tiny Soyuz vernier engines or Safir-2/Unha vernier engines.

The Safir-2 rocket weigths 85 tons and its liquid fuel propulsion system has a thrust of up to 143 tons. The rocket uses a cluster of four Shahab-3 engines that can't be steered, each having a thrust of 32 tons plus a four steering control engine with a total thrust of 15 tons.

Notice that the Chollima-1 SLV powered by four fully gimballed 80-tf Paektusan-1D engines has no fins at all! Just like SpaceX's Starship.

This speaks volumes.


▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV compared to the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM and Unha SLV.

North Korea

If my records are correct, Vostochny today broke all the records among spaceports on the number of head of state visiting the site: Putin, Lukashenko and, now, Kim Jong Un:

Russian social media sources discuss a possibility of a joint Russo-North-Korean orbital crew mission, assuming it would avoid the ISS. I guess a 2-3-day autonomous mission is theoretically feasible, with some safety margins.

It should be noted that in 2001, despite NASA objections, Russia flew a private tourist to the ISS, so we can imagine a situation, where Roskosmos would bring a North-Korean to the station as a sign of rekindled rapprochement.

Enough to say that Roskosmos is already training cosmonauts from Belarus, preparing to visit the ISS next year, and, as far as we know, NASA can't do anything about it.





It is obvious that North Korea being the target of the harshest possible sanctions from the U.S. and E.U. will not be permitted to enter the ISS-Zarya without further condemnations at the U.N.S.C.

Instead, the most obvious alternative focus for North Korea is to follow China's footsteps by sending 2 cosmonauts to be trained at Russia's Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center.


If this approach is correct, then we could see the return to North Korea after about one year of training in Russia in 2024 of the first 2 instructors for North Korea's own indigenous astronaut training program.

Then by 2025, a manned space flight aboard a North Korean Soyuz-class capsule launched from Sohae SLC could be attempted.

Finally by 2030, androgynous docking systems could be added to the spacecraft before a crew of North Korean astronauts could dock at the Chinese Space Station for a short term visit.

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Venezuela

Venezuela plans to put its astronaut on a Chinese spacecraft in another sign of Beijing's matured human space flight program.

Commentary

After the recent cooling in the Israel-Chinese relations following the sudden and unexpected no show of Netanyahu in Beijing at the end of 2023, the perspective of seing an Israeli astronaut paying a courtesy visit to the Chinese Space Station have dimmed. Further complicating this, the new unambiguous and unsupportive stance of China following this week's unprecedented missile barrage on the Israeli State by Iran's IRGC.

Meanwhile, it is near certain that the CSS will soon be visited by new guests from the Land of the Smile, as it is already the case with the Chinese Antarctica Research Station! At this pace, one could even dream of the day when Khmer and even Myanmarese astronauts will fly into space.

For more detail please read @stoa1984's new dedicated thread: The 4th manned space race news and discussion