Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

steel21

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
MarKoz81 said:
The key here is the ability to resist information onslaught from the US which will require about a decade of work. This is the gap between the capabilities of US and China in the cyber domain according to London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. So it is not about navies and air forces but about who gets to spin the story better. China has the advantage locally but not globally. If they can match the US globally then DPP is toast because the US will not sacifice its grip on all the other assets worldwide (Europe, South America, Middle East, India) to save Taiwan - and that's what would happen if they were to go head to head with China. They would likely still lose Taiwan but in the process they'd lose control in numerous other places. Just think how much damage one Trump did without anyone contending with the US information warfare directly. This would be far worse.
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I have no respect for think tank, mostly because I out think those undeployed mofo any day of the week, and twice on Sundays. ;)

I have rarely seen any work from any think tank that made me go: " Wow, now how come I haven't thought of that?"

First thing first, it is NOT the cyber domain, but the social media domain.

Here is what the Cyber Domain looks like:
1624974041719.png

10 years won't cover the gap, because unless Twitter, Facebook, Instagram can convert into Chinese owned corporations, or if WeChat and Sina Weibo can come to dominate the social media, then the first adopter has an insurmountable head start.

However, opinions are like farts. Fuck opinions and plow forth. As long as SE Asia, Africa and some of South/Latin America is on board, fuck the Global North and get it done.

Personally, I think timing is EVERYTHING. The ideal pre-conditions are:
1. US under goes serious economic stress that supersede 2008 GFC.
2. Taiwan is mired in pandemic lockdown for over 12 months.
3. RCEP is ratified and fully adopted.
4. DCEP does live and fully circumvent SWIFT.
5. China is economically 1.25x US GDP in nominal terms.

Remember, (your currency) money talks, bullshit runs the marathons.
1624974448227.png
 
Strangelove

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
steel21 said:
The average joe might stand 6ft tall and weight in excess of 200lb, but they generally have a memory of a gold fish.

I would not be surprised if DPP still eke out a majority. DPP is adroit at media campaigns.

I would prefer China to take Taiwan with a "shock and awe" campaign resulting in less than 50 casualties on both sides. A peaceful unification is nice, but at some point, demonstrating that you can curb stump bitches leaves a lasting but necessary impression.
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Yeah, and add to this the fact that KMT are too old school and utterly incompetent also. DPP is indeed much better in its propaganda and disinformation, which makes all the difference come election time.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
MarKoz81 said:
It doesn't matter.

The foundation of all authority is the same in all cultures and all historical periods.

(1) security -> (2) stability -> (3) prosperity

Democracy only replaces armed challenge as means of contesting established authority. Elections are battles where instead of drawing blood we draw ballots. Opinion polls are tallies of armies that can be fielded by each faction.

As you well know armies can defect, desert or refuse to fight. If a war drags on a larger army might fail to perform and be beaten by nominally weaker adversary. I think the CPC might know a thing or two about that.

So here's how CPC could unseat DPP from power without winning an election on Taiwan.

Taiwan has several islands outside of the main island that are part of its territory. Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqiu are in very close proximity to the mainland. Taiping island is located in the middle of the triangle formed by the three large bases in the Spratly archipelago. Pratas island is closer to the mainland than to Taiwan. All of these islands are municipalities where KMT has majority support. DPP is strong only on Taiwan proper....
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No offense, but your scenario is so needlessly complex.

First, DPP already does not care about Kinmen or any other ROC administered territories outside of Taiwan Island proper. Look at their flag. Your scenario assumes that a switch needs to be flipped, but it's already a leaky bucket. The people do not consider themselves "Taiwanese" for sure, so the DPP Taiwanese identity politics holds zero/negative appeal for them. There is no need to incite anything or create a false flag situation. Their life necessities and livelihoods are intrinsically linked to the mainland (such as water supply), so a DPP government already always risks acting in an undemocratic manner by ignoring their needs.

Second, the ROC military is already hard pressed enough as it is. They are no longer intercepting unarmed PLAAF aircraft such as Y-8 MPA and ELINT. Last year, 4 marines drowned in a training exercise, and I speculated that these marines were weak swimmers (though admittedly I have no idea how bad the conditions were), possibly due to lower recruiting standards (the lower standard is a fact). This was capping off a particularly bad year which included the death of a the Chief of Defense staff in a helicopter crash. You think all of a sudden they would have the resources to start taking islands?

DPP already lives in imagination land. You cannot blame the Chinese government for a German company signing a contract that covers distribution in Taiwan. You cannot solve blackouts with street protests against nuclear power. You cannot defeat the PLA by hoping the US will rescue you. What do you think your false flag ops would accomplish? DPP already rules by populist rhetoric rather than competence. It is why they have their own version of wumao, 1450 army.
 
Mr T

Mr T

Senior Member
siegecrossbow said:
As long as main land China exists and is strong, DPP will get majority of votes.
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I mean, is there any reason to believe that? The PRC didn't become weaker from 2008 to 2016 when the KMT were in power. If you're talking about wolf-warrior foreign policy, I don't know - maybe?

2024 might be too early for a KMT resurgance, but I think 2028 is a distinct possibility if they focus on domestic issues.

steel21 said:
I would prefer China to take Taiwan with a "shock and awe" campaign resulting in less than 50 casualties on both sides.
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Whilst most people would prefer any war result in minimal casualties, I think in the case of Taiwan it's highly unlikely there would be such small numbers of dead & injured given the high stakes involved. Even Saddam Hussein, who like most bullies turned out to be a coward and fled Baghdad as soon as the US advanced on it, ignored the enormous air campaign mounted against Iraq in 1990-91 and 2003.

steel21 said:
A peaceful unification is nice, but at some point, demonstrating that you can curb stump bitches leaves a lasting but necessary impression.
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See above. If Taiwan refuses to accept unification with the PRC, it's unlikely to fold just because it gets bombed.

If you want to avoid civilian (and military) casualties then a peaceful political solution is the best for everyone.
 
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