can we go back to topic and talk about taiwan's military, news, reports and data before we get banned for going off-topic?
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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Both land-based AshM and HIMARS can pose problems for PLA. Enough of them can be a headache for PLA's landing fleet. But in the grand scheme of the thing, they don't change the balance of power across the Strait appreciably.
PLA is not going to send its landing ships and crafts to cross the Strait before these AshM and HIMARS are largely taken care of. These AshM and HIMARS can be mobile, but Taiwan is just an island with limited space. They can be searched and tracked from space and air by satellite, aircraft and drones.
The Operation of Reunification of Taiwan will likely be the most complex and integrated landing operations in human history. It's over a much wider strait than the English Channel, and will involve coordinated operations in space, air, naval, land and electric-magnetic domains. The most critical part is to establish air dominance and air control; the naval and landing operation will follow after that. To establish air dominance, PLA will need to destroy air defense sites, air fields, radars, command and communication centers, and ROC-AF in the air if not already on the ground. Most of these are fixed sites and can be destroyed by cruise and ballistic missiles, air bombing and MLRS across the strait (and maybe even on the ships).
These operations will need be at very large scale and intensity, and achieve its goals very rapidly, say in 3-7 days. This is the best way to minimize casualties on both sides. Any protracted blockages, economic embargo, or street wars are meaningless and will do more harm.
PLA is not going to send its landing ships and crafts to cross the Strait before these AshM and HIMARS are largely taken care of. These AshM and HIMARS can be mobile, but Taiwan is just an island with limited space. They can be searched and tracked from space and air by satellite, aircraft and drones.
The Operation of Reunification of Taiwan will likely be the most complex and integrated landing operations in human history. It's over a much wider strait than the English Channel, and will involve coordinated operations in space, air, naval, land and electric-magnetic domains. The most critical part is to establish air dominance and air control; the naval and landing operation will follow after that. To establish air dominance, PLA will need to destroy air defense sites, air fields, radars, command and communication centers, and ROC-AF in the air if not already on the ground. Most of these are fixed sites and can be destroyed by cruise and ballistic missiles, air bombing and MLRS across the strait (and maybe even on the ships).
These operations will need be at very large scale and intensity, and achieve its goals very rapidly, say in 3-7 days. This is the best way to minimize casualties on both sides. Any protracted blockages, economic embargo, or street wars are meaningless and will do more harm.
Yes I think Kinmen would be first before Penghu. Taiwan island itself would be the last stage of battle. The entire operation should closely resemble Azerbaijani invasion of Artsakh last year.
Keeping in mind the defense angle with the politics...
This is a major factor as well. There is a photo circulating around the internet of many retired ROC generals attending a meeting of the CPCC. You could argue that these guys are retired and have no influence on the day to day operations, but I think it does illustrate a certain spirit within the armed forces. Could anyone imagine someone like David Petraeus watching and clapping for a Taliban meeting?
I think this is also why the US tends to keep the latest and greatest away from Taiwan. It is too difficult to rely on the of loyalty of members, especially when attitudes often ebb and flow with cross-straits politics. That's not to say that ROC servicemembers want to betray the government, rather that there is a real issue that they feel betrayed BY the government. I mean an IJA mural? Seriously?
I forgot about TK-series. However, only TK-3 and maybe 2 would be useful in this kind of defense. Avenger/Chaparral/TK-1 would only be able to provide point defense against standoff munitions. I imagine PLA would be looking to establish full air superiority which would allow the use of direct attack munitions against targets like coastal missile batteries.
Holding out for US support is increasingly a fading possibility. Once PLAN can have the full complement of 2 CVBG with 055 and 052D supporting AD operations, then I don't think there is a realistic chance of intervention. 1 floating to the North and another to the East is probably enough to deter any major operations.
Back to the political equation for a moment. My major fear of the DPP government is that they are being manipulated by the American State Department. Such aggressive salami slicing moves were discouraged under GW Bush when attempted by CSB's DPP government. Then under Trump and now continued by Biden, they are deciding to push the envelope. Although there are some brownie points to be won domestically by the DPP, they must realize the benefit is far in the favor of the US. They have nothing to lose if a war is fought. If they don't intervene, it is unlikely to cause domestic friction as there is already fatigue over the Middle East wars. If Taiwan cannot defend itself and is reunified with the mainland, then the major loss is semiconductors and electronics which is actually a net gain for the American economy as Intel will become undisputed leader once again. If Taiwan resistance is entirely nominal and casualties are limited, then any calls for sanctions or anything like that become even more unlikely making the disruption to America entirely limited to losing a well paying customer of the MIC.
I think the Northern Taiwan and Penghu Islands are the main targets for landing operations, likely to be simultaneously. They will get around Kinmen or it will be handled separately. Once Penghu Island is taken, the central part and the southern part of Taiwan are wide open, and the landing operations will become much easier.
I think Kinmen would be entirely ignored. It is in the range of regular gun artillery. A loud speaker is probably enough to take it over if there was a hot war. If it is DPP declaring independence... not even that.
Back to Harpoons... how are the datalinks established? Could Y-8 ELINT aircraft be capable of transmissions between batteries and search radar to pinpoint launchers? Or is the transmission power too low for an aircraft to pick up on it?
No, landing in the main island is the priority.
I would saturate Penghu and mop it up later. As long as ASCM, C4ISR and IADs are done, there is no need to diverge the main effort.
Depending on how much sealift they have, they might need to make multiple runs. Which means I would have to create a corridor.
I would also go for Taichung. It has:
1. Tank farms for fuel storage.
2. A port facility in relative proximity to the Taichung International Airport (RCMQ). Allowing to push with armor to secure the valuable APOD.
3. Direct access to highway 1.
4. Rivers to the North and South, hindering a counter attack (but also could choke RED's advance)
5. Both the airport and port facilities are relatively isolated from urban centers.
Landing here would cut the Island in 1/2, while providing me a convenient logistic hub for both SPOD and APOD. It's close enough Taipei to present a tangible pressure for capitulation.
Taipei itself is a mess, with limited avenue of approach on all sides. It is not suitable for combined arms assault. I would stay clear of the city and wait for it to fall from within. I would however flood the place with SOF elements and drones.
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NOTE: Above is pure fantasy and not based on any OPLAN.
The worst part for ROC-A is that once the shooting starts, all the company size elements are on their own. If you decide to fight on, you have no idea who you can trust and who would shoot you in the back. Isolated, PLA would always be the localized hammer, able to converge and neutralize.
For ROC-A and ROC-MC, blue on blue will be a serious issue. The enemy sounds like you, probably speak better Minan dialect than you, and have better training and discipline. If you track ROC military problems, they have inadequate comms, and usually use PT instead of any Freq Hop. This has been complained about on numerous shows, even the meat head below have bitched about it.
Hence, if PLA does land, then all other domains have already been lost.
From the vantage of the private on the ground, with 4 months of training, I would sit this one out, instead of getting shot by trigger happy fellow ROC-ers and or overmatched by PLA.
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As soon as the shooting is done, I would announce the phased demonetize plan for NTB.
Conversion to RMB would predicated on accepting terms.
Those who convert their account with 1 week to RMB would receive a 3X multiplier. (there is a ceiling, probably around 6 million RMB, or 1m USD)
Those who convert within 2 week, 1.5x multiplier.
Converting within 4 weeks, 1x multiplier.
Biometrics are collected and or validated at the conversion process.
Same scheme will be done with all government and military positions, but come with a pledge. Sign on within a week, and you can cop and soldier can see their salary double.
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I think Kinmen is much pro-mainland; it's much closer to mainland both geographically and psychologically. Honestly I even doubt they will put up much of a fight when the operation starts.
Going directly to the main island is without the doubt the right strategy.
From the landing standpoint, central Taiwan is the best selection, better than the northern part. The only problem is Penghui stands in the way. So the conventional way to take over Taiwan is first to take over Penghui, which was the case for Kangxi Emperor of Qing Dynasty, and Japanese invasion of Taiwan too. Of course, your approach is more daring and unconventional, which depends on the degree of PLA air and sea control, and how much sea lift it has. It could work.
Yes, I'm also thinking from pure military operations standpoint, ignoring politics and everything else, which is very interesting.
I would also provide early adopters real estate incentives on the mainland, such as real estate tax abatement.
In this way, I will let them spend their new RMB, thus anchoring their equity to the newly unified PRC.
There are so many ways that PRC can play this that US could not with Iraq......
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