These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.
No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.
I think that quote is a revealing point and highlights the key American fear - military escalation over Taiwan.
The analyst echoes what I think is clear. China has absolute escalation dominance in regards to Taiwan.
I mean, am I missing something here? I’ve read a bit of the thread, and there’s a lot of rhetoric on Taiwanese independence and American intervention.
Militarily, American intervention is posturing and a bluff. The Americans would certainly prefer to fight a limited war to realize Taiwan independence. However, how would they keep it limited when they are afraid to escalate?
It seems to me any movement on Taiwan leads to a Cuban Missile Crisis like scenario - this time with the Chinese in place of the Americans.
I think under the current backdrop, the Americans are reevaluating all policies, including on Taiwan, as they realize China will surpass the United States given the status quo. Militarily, I don’t see how the Chinese can be defeated over Taiwan if the Chinese choose not to back down. Instead, the Americans may be looking at sacrificing Taiwan for second-order damage against China e.g. sanctions and international isolation.
