Taipei has the most difficult decade ahead. The traditional and long time US allies are more suspicious of her intents now, than they ever did since the WWII. Apart from their treaty alliances, the Americans are in conflict of interests with their NATO allies over a number of topics, as well. If Germany or France is having trouble with the US over more basic and so-called traditional topics such as Russia and Iran, what guarantee is there for Taiwan?
At this point Taiwan needs a more favorable position to for a soft reunification as it is inevitable. From a position of strength such as their unique type of industries, which is quite crucial for both China and the global suppy chain, they can strike a bargain over some topics. But this is a time sensitive matter and the sole advantage of Taiwan is fading away as the time goes by.
TBH, I don't really see the point drawing even a rough comparison between Hong Kong and Taiwan in a deterministic manner and, try to get a decisive result . Those cases are hardly alike and, I don't know if anyone here actually do the reading on China from the western scholars but since the handover of Hong Kong, the western perspective have been generally deterministic as if there was some prophecy on CCP's demise by the Hongkongers hands. As early as 2003, you can find scholars advising the contemporary western governments to use the so-called opportunities in Hong Kong. Apparently some Hongkongers took these sort of advices to the heart and picked the wrong course of action. In comparison the Chinese security forces had been less than aggressive than their European counterparts in their contemporary incidents.
