There is very little chance of any of those happening.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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There is very little chance of any of those happening.
Attempted defection probably wouldn't be flying towards the east even to throw people off. But some hidden involvement from China is still possible albeit quite unlikely. Taiwan strait tensions have become inflamed in recent months though. US visits and military activity escalating too. All of it is concerning and does indicate a growing potential for actual shooting war. It's concerning for Taiwan and Fujian.
There's really no reason to entertain those ideas.
Occam's razor is appropriate in this case.
Considering the (rushed?) meeting betwwen Taiwan and US I'd say it's not a simple crash. It would be a pretty big conincidence if the two events are unrelated.
Someone on twitter said its likely US activated the kill switch on the F16 when it tried to defect and TW was out of the loop
Kinda like MCAS or Boeing Uninterruptable Autopilot in this case it was a bomb device inside the ejector
That seems like an incredible stretch. How would the US even know the plane was in the process of defecting? Secret F16 control base on the island?
If this is true, thats basically the end of US plane sales to non-aligned countries.
If this is true, thats basically the end of US plane sales to non-aligned countries.
Just a guess but they can satellite track? F35 needs to hit US activation servers to get new code every day or engine dont even start... US doesnt want F16 fall in mainland hands, not a stretch to built in remote kill switch to planes sold to TW and remote denotate them via staellittle signal
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well, just playing devil’s advocate here, but if you were planning to defect, I think you would want to communicate that intention to the side you were planning to defect to. Especially given high tensions in recent months.
If you just flew in cold, without any word as to your intentions, then there is a chance you will get shot down by the side you are trying to defect to.
The Americans could have intercepted the pilot’s communications chatter (potentially via a backdoor to supposedly secure comms) announcing his intentions to defect and flipped a killswitch that Taiwan was not aware of existing on all their F16s.
Although as pointed out already, it would be an odd choice for a defecting pilot to be doing so while on the east side of Taiwan. Although it could be that due to fears of exactly such a defection, ROCAF never sends fighters up solo or unarmed when they are operating on the west side of Taiwan, so if he tried to defect when on a mission on the west, his lead/wingman would likely have shot him down before he could make it across.
A solo F16 operating on the east side of Taiwan could potentially have a better chance if he switched off transponders, dropped to the deck and made a bash towards the mainland. Especially if he was operating towards the south east of the island to start with.
His chances would still have been far higher had he chosen to defect while on a mission to the west of Taiwan if he was prepared to kill his lead/wingman.
I don’t think there would be any doubt about the pilot’s intentions if during an intercept against PLAAF fighters, he lined up on the other F16 in his flight and blasted him out of the skies with 20mm and then immediately declared his intention to defect on the open/emergency channel.
With PLAAF fighters as close escort, Taiwan would not even dare to try to shoot him down with SAMs least they accidentally restart the civil war with the mainland.