Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

FangYuan said:

Taiwan buys the F-16, China can order 200 Mig-35s from Russia and receive TOT
Taiwan buys UAVs, China can order 200 Mi-28s or Ka-52 with TOT

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... Why would the PLA procure MIGs and Russian helicopters, when it's indigenous weapons platforms such as the Flanker, J-10, and Z-10/Z-19 attack/reconnaissance helicopter programs have been making leaps and bounds in capability, lethality, and readiness over the past decade?? It'd almost arguably be more sensible for the Russians to buy the PLAN's Liaoning carrier once the Type 003 carriers are commissioned within the next couple of years.

China is on track to have the technology to effectively enforce an anti-access area denial strategy (in terms of kinetic engagements, and more importantly show of force + political projection of power) against the US/INDOPACOM assets in the South China Sea within this decade. Strengthening economic (oil trade, the CR929 aircraft project, technology collaboration/cooperation...) and diplomatic ties with Russia would be a more productive means of reinforcing existing Sino-Russian relations to counter Western aggression.

FangYuan said:

China can take revenge by buying weapons from Russia and receiving TOT. China's economy is better than Taiwan's. and more importantly, now Russia is an enemy of the United States. Buying weapons from Russia gives China more new technology, and helps "the enemy of the enemy".

Taiwan buys the F-16, China can order 200 Mig-35/Su-35/Su-57s from Russia and receive TOT
Taiwan buys UAVs, China can order 200 Mi-28s or Ka-52 with TOT

With a defense budget of more than 170 billion USD, spending 20-30 billion USD to buy new weapons is not a burden for China.

Americans will have to rethink hundreds of times before selling weapons to Taiwan because China's revenge will hurt Americans more. China gets new technology and the US enemy (Russia) gets more money.

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Where have you been in the last decade? Space travel?

FangYuan said:

China can take revenge by buying weapons from Russia and receiving TOT. China's economy is better than Taiwan's. and more importantly, now Russia is an enemy of the United States. Buying weapons from Russia gives China more new technology, and helps "the enemy of the enemy".

Taiwan buys the F-16, China can order 200 Mig-35/Su-35/Su-57s from Russia and receive TOT
Taiwan buys UAVs, China can order 200 Mi-28s or Ka-52 with TOT

With a defense budget of more than 170 billion USD, spending 20-30 billion USD to buy new weapons is not a burden for China.

Americans will have to rethink hundreds of times before selling weapons to Taiwan because China's revenge will hurt Americans more. China gets new technology and the US enemy (Russia) gets more money.

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Why would China buy weapons from Russia? Chinese weapon systems are better than what the Russians have got to offer. With the exception of aero engines.

And even if China buts more from Russia. It does nothing in the calculus to hurt the US to stop them from selling weapons to Taiwan province.

The only thing that should do it is to hit the capitalists in their pockets. And that, at the moment China is not ready to do, unfortunately. It'll come a time, when the cost exceed the benefit to the US of supplying arms to Taiwan province. We just got to be patient.

crash8pilot said:

... Why would the PLA procure MIGs and Russian helicopters, when it's indigenous weapons platforms such as the Flanker, J-10, and Z-10/Z-19 attack/reconnaissance helicopter programs have been making leaps and bounds in capability, lethality, and readiness over the past decade?? It'd almost arguably be more sensible for the Russians to buy the PLAN's Liaoning carrier once the Type 003 carriers are commissioned within the next couple of years.

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Gatekeeper said:

Why would China buy weapons from Russia? Chinese weapon systems are better than what the Russians have got to offer. With the exception of aero engines.

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Russia is many years ahead of China in the field of helicopter development, they have a lot of experience and technology. The Chinese z-10 is not inferior to the Mi-28, but the Mi-28 has its own advantages. Another reason is that China does not have any helicopters similar to the Ka-52. Coaxial rotor is the weak point of China.

Buying weapons from Russia and receiving TOT, China can use Russian technology to continue to improve its weapons. They can integrate the technology of the Mi-28 into the Z-9 or z-10. Or on the basis of the Ka-52, China will develop a more advanced version of coaxial rotors.

The same is true if China buys Mig-35, Su-35 and Su-57 with TOT

Buying weapons from Russia is not just for technology, it is also a political message to Taiwan and the United States.

Every time the United States sells weapons to Taiwan, China will buy weapons from Russia and receive TOT.

Taiwan realizes: they buy weapons that make China stronger and make them weaker.
The United States recognizes that arms sales to Taiwan are benefiting their two enemies. China has technology and Russia has money.

Gatekeeper said:

And even if China buts more from Russia. It does nothing in the calculus to hurt the US to stop them from selling weapons to Taiwan province.

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If the US does not sell weapons to Taiwan, China will buy less weapons from Russia
If the US sells weapons to Taiwan, China will buy 10 times more weapons

Enemies of the enemy are friends. Helping an enemy's enemy is the most effective way of hurting an enemy.

FangYuan said:

Russia is many years ahead of China in the field of helicopter development, they have a lot of experience and technology. The Chinese z-10 is not inferior to the Mi-28, but the Mi-28 has its own advantages. Another reason is that China does not have any helicopters similar to the Ka-52. Coaxial rotor is the weak point of China.

Buying weapons from Russia and receiving TOT, China can use Russian technology to continue to improve its weapons. They can integrate the technology of the Mi-28 into the Z-9 or z-10. Or on the basis of the Ka-52, China will develop a more advanced version of coaxial rotors.

The same is true if China buys Mig-35, Su-35 and Su-57 with TOT

Buying weapons from Russia is not just for technology, it is also a political message to Taiwan and the United States.

Every time the United States sells weapons to Taiwan, China will buy weapons from Russia and receive TOT.

Taiwan realizes: they buy weapons that make China stronger and make them weaker.
The United States recognizes that arms sales to Taiwan are benefiting their two enemies. China has technology and Russia has money.

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Z-10s were designed to operate in cohesion and support of Z-19s. Bringing in foreign procurement throws in the challenge of integrating assets together - a problem the Indians are facing with French Mirage/Rafales, Russian MIGs/Flankers, and Brazilian AWACS.

China has taken the original Su-27SK, studied it inside and out, made it indigenous, and fed it with steroids to the point it is on equal footing in terms of capability with the Su-35, especially as TVC technology comes into maturation. Moreover China has beat the Russians to deploying fifth-gen fighters with the J-20 (only a matter of time till they're fitted with WS-15 engines). I'm not denying that the Russians are great developers of military technology... We sure wouldn't mind some S-400s, but China is reaching a point it's development of military technology is becoming self sufficient and highly capable.

Dare I say a Type 075 with its flight deck packed with Z-10s, Z-19s, and Z-18/20s patrolling the strait alongside Type 071s loaded with a full amphibious assault group sends a bigger message to Taiwan than procuring Russian weapons... I haven't even mentioned the carrier strike group that will be roaming the South China Seas, or the advanced airborne assets the PLAAF can fly across the strait - All of this indigenously produced.

Gloire_bb said:

Like Armenian Osas shoot down Bayraktars? Reaper is a MALE drone with a powerful optical suite.

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Come on, thats a disingenuous comparison and you know it. There are plenty of videos of Armenians shooting down drones as well. But the key issue is that both sides are at best 3rd rate forces, and it’s not what hardware you have, but how you use it that matters, and both sides leave a lot to be desired in that respects

Besides, using EO for sea search is at best sub-optimal. Even on a clear, sunny day with perfect conditions for maximum EO performance, the odds of the MQ9 spotting a 056 before the 056 spots it are slime to none.

But it's a weird match-up anyways. If such a drone suddenly disappears - it's a good signal on its own, because it's either a long range fighter sweep "around the corner"(which is actually quite troublesome to organize; it isn't just about range), or a surface task force.

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So they are $100m tripwires, great value!

I see you missed the point of using 056s as the example. The PLAN have plenty of 056s, and can send them around as scouts and distractions. You loose a Reaper, organise a big ass strike package to hunt a PLAN task force only to find a lowly 056 and a swarm of PLAAF fighters waiting to pounce.

On top of that, there are other sensor options for maritime reapers, too.

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And are those on the shopping list? If not, might as well daydream about F35s and F22s.

They can't hope for more anyways. Either US intervention comes at some point, or they're mathematically doomed.
For it to come, they have to at least try to keep approaches to the Island open/contested.

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And land recon MQ9s will help how? If the PLAN are encircling Taiwan to the East, those MQ9s will be shot down long before they are in any position to see or do anything or worth.

plawolf said:

Come on, thats a disingenuous comparison and you know it.

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It isn't about that.
It was a simple reference that short range AA systems have obvious limitations in range and altitude.
Much like many Soviet warships of the 1980s with Kinzhal air defense system, which could mutilate whole barrages of incoming ASCMs... but literally had only a gun to prevent simple bombing from higher altitude.

HHQ-10 can't reach MALE drone even directly above the ship, and those tend to fly as high as possible in combat conditions.

plawolf said:

So they are $100m tripwires, great value!

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In the worst case - yes, they're, to warn about the inevitable. There is nothing wrong here, since sustainable PLAN presence east of Taiwan almost inherently amounts at least to a blockading force, represented by main fleet. If USN decides to engage - it's a Mahanian situation.

For all situations left of actual close surface blockade(which is a major commitment by PLAN) - they're very useful.

Also, it's worth noting, that the drone itself is probably much cheaper. Lion's share of unit price for most drone sets is actually in their control stations.

plawolf said:

I see you missed the point of using 056s as the example. The PLAN have plenty of 056s, and can send them around as scouts and distractions.

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They can be lost much easier than heavier combatants, but 056 are nowhere near expendable. So are their crews.
056s on the east side by themselves will simply get picked off by coastal aviation. This situation isn't something they're designed for.

plawolf said:

And are those on the shopping list? If not, might as well daydream about F35s and F22s.

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I haven't seen expanded shopping list, but judging from the variant they bought and price - it's almost given that yes, they have sensor pods.
US deals with Taiwan already are not unlike open robbery, but even a tribute has to be justified somewhat.

plawolf said:

And land recon MQ9s will help how? If the PLAN are encircling Taiwan to the East, those MQ9s will be shot down long before they are in any position to see or do anything or worth.

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As i wrote before - if Taiwan is encircled in close blockade - it's their doom already. They either somehow hamper it before it happens with whatever they have, or, well, they're an isolated fortress, and there is no need to bother anymore.

Gloire_bb said:

It isn't about that.
It was a simple reference that short range AA systems have obvious limitations in range and altitude.
Much like many Soviet warships of the 1980s with Kinzhal air defense system, which could mutilate whole barrages of incoming ASCMs... but literally had only a gun to prevent simple bombing from higher altitude.

HHQ-10 can't reach MALE drone even directly above the ship, and those tend to fly as high as possible in combat conditions.

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Whoever said anything about HQ10? The 056’s 76mm main gun can easily hit targets at over 9km altitude, MQ9 operational altitude is 7.6km.

In the worst case - yes, they're, to warn about the inevitable. There is nothing wrong here, since sustainable PLAN presence east of Taiwan almost inherently amounts at least to a blockading force, represented by main fleet. If USN decides to engage - it's a Mahanian situation.

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Except they will only get 6 of these tripwires. Those will not be enough to tell them of sustained anything. And that’s assuming that when the shooting actually starts, that all those drones will actually even get to take off, since they need long runways for take offs and landings, and those will be near the top of the PLA’s strike target list.

For all situations left of actual close surface blockade(which is a major commitment by PLAN) - they're very useful.

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You realise just repeating something won’t make it true right? Other than sending them off on wild goose chases out in the middle of nowhere, chiefly so they won’t get shot down immediatelywhat operational use can Taiwan put these drones to in an actual shooting war?

Also, it's worth noting, that the drone itself is probably much cheaper. Lion's share of unit price for most drone sets is actually in their control stations.

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No, the lion share of the unit price is a pork barrel gift for Trump’s election campaign, which is now all for naught so the deal may not even go ahead now.

Besides, having control stations and no drones to use is equally as pointless.

They can be lost much easier than heavier combatants, but 056 are nowhere near expendable. So are their crews.
056s on the east side by themselves will simply get picked off by coastal aviation. This situation isn't something they're designed for.

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Why would 056s be operating alone? The point is that spotting an 056 gives you zero clue about where the PLAN main fleet strengths are. These drones will add zero intel to that question mark, so you are still going to have to send manned recon assets to try to find the PLAN main fleet.

If you are stupid enough to think that just because an 056 smoked your $100m drone that it will be operating alone and organise a strike package to try to sink it, congratulations, you just walked into a PLAN trap and is now minus one strike package.

I haven't seen expanded shopping list, but judging from the variant they bought and price - it's almost given that yes, they have sensor pods.
US deals with Taiwan already are not unlike open robbery, but even a tribute has to be justified somewhat.

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So you are just assuming.

As i wrote before - if Taiwan is encircled in close blockade - it's their doom already. They either somehow hamper it before it happens with whatever they have, or, well, they're an isolated fortress, and there is no need to bother anymore.

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Any they picked MQ9s for counter blockade?!

You are just stretching desperately trying to avoid the most obvious and logical explanation, that at least part of the Taiwan shopping list is not determined by Taiwan, but by the US. And the US administration in power decides what Taiwan should buy on the very eve of a critical election based on what would give them the most votes. It’s as simple as that, no need to do mental gymnastics trying to find deep hidden meaning or attribute subsystems clearly not purchased to give these drones roles they are manifestly unsuitable for. It’s just Trump calling in protection money from Taiwan to boost his flagging election prospects.

plawolf said:

Whoever said anything about HQ10? The 056’s 76mm main gun can easily hit targets at over 9km altitude, MQ9 operational altitude is 7.6km.

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Doesn't matter, unless it's going to be twice those numbers. Reaper can fly way higher than 7.6km and engagement envelopes aren't rectangular: top altitude is only meaningful somewhere close to you. Scouts tend to shadow their targets from safe distance, thus intercept with HQ10 alone is extremely unlikely.

plawolf said:

Except they will only get 6 of these tripwires.

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Not a small number for their backyard, actually. Not too sustainable either, but valid question here is how long can Taiwan resist to begin with.

plawolf said:

You realise just repeating something won’t make it true right? Other than sending them off on wild goose chases out in the middle of nowhere,

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This middle of nowhere is important for Taiwan. That's my point.
It has to be observed. Unmanned long endurance platforms are a perfect fit for a mission.

plawolf said:

No, the lion share of the unit price is a pork barrel gift for Trump’s election campaign, which is now all for naught so the deal may not even go ahead now.

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I haven't seen contracts obviously, but money transfers tend to be much closer to transfer of the equipment, and don't go into party pockets anyway. So, at very least, not these money.

plawolf said:

If you are stupid enough to think that just because an 056 smoked your $100m drone that it will be operating alone and organise a strike package to try to sink it, congratulations, you just walked into a PLAN trap and is now minus one strike package.

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China hasn't invented teleportation devices, as far as I've heard.
Making sneaky fighter ambush on the east side of Taiwan will be challenging at best, even with J-11/Su-35s. Geography matters.

And if they're indeed properly covered, then again, PLAN battlefleet is at sea, purpose served.

plawolf said:

So you are just assuming.

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Yep. But buying only a Reaper for F-35 cost is too much even for Taiwan.

plawolf said:

You are just stretching desperately trying to avoid the most obvious and logical explanation, that at least part of the Taiwan shopping list is not determined by Taiwan, but by the US.

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I honestly don't care about US politics and explanations, i simply look at what those things can, what they can't, and how can they be employed to the best effect in relevant situations.

US isn't interested in Taiwan's demise. They may very well make money on something useful.