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Blitzo

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Thanks. I have an odd idea:

When seeing an enemy two-ship, couldn't the pilot instruct the missile to track and target the one in front and go after the one in the rear only after the lead fighter is downed? If either one is a decoy, it has to be the lagging one.

IMO the most reliable solution for ECM of any kind is just improving ECCM.


And I have to say this entire discussion about towed decoys is really missing the forest for the trees when it comes to the air power balance across the strait. The way I see it there are four major trends or factors that are either moving in a direction that is no longer favouring Taiwan or which exist in a manner which there is no physical way of altering.

1: strategic depth. China has a lot of it, Taiwan has virtually none. The ability to have command/control centers, logistics centers and bases and so on that exists beyond the immediate "battle space" or "front" allows you to more easily sustain the battle compared to if all of those centers and bases existed within the "battle space" because it means those centers and bases will be subject to direct and convenient attack. This is simply a reflection of geography, where the area of mainland China and the area of Taiwan is very different and where the proximity between the two means the entirety of Taiwan can come under the coverage of easily redeployable mobile ground based missile and cruise missile systems as well as redeployable standoff aerial strike systems. For the PLA OTOH, only the provinces in the immediate vicinity of Taiwan will be subject to significant threat of strikes if they even happen in the first place. Furthermore it goes without saying that the difference in surface area presents very different targeting and ISR requirements for attackers, and having more surface area obviously means the defender has much more space to disperse military assets if need be (again, relevant to targeting/ISR and thus survivability).

2: qualitative and quantitative combat capability. Twenty years ago the ROCAF had a clear technological advantage in its major combat aircraft and its support aircraft that lended its forces a clear and significant qualitative advantage in combat aircraft and overall combat capability. That qualitative advantage has basically all but disappeared now and for the PLA it has resulted in a quantitative advantage while catching up in qualitative domains as well (when looking at numbers of 4, 4+ aircraft and even burgeoning 5th gen aircraft between both sides). If anything the qualitative advantage has already shifted in the PLA's favour and is likely to accelerate in coming years unless Taiwan somehow manages to procure an operationally useful number of stealth fighters of its own, but even that will not alleviate the effects of the next factor very much...

3: offensive counter air. OCA is defined as the operations made to suppress an enemy's air power, usually through the means of striking at the facilities on the ground that support air operations (bases, logistics, command/control, runways, or even fighters on the ground themselves). Both the PLA and ROC military have capabilities that could be defined as "OCA" and both sides also have various defenses that could be used to mitigate the other side's strike weapons. However the quantitative and qualitative balance of offensive capability and defensive capability are both heavily in the PLA's favour. More importantly, the aforementioned lack of strategic depth that Taiwan suffers means the entirety of Taiwan will be under the umbrella of the PLA's OCA operations whereas only parts of the Chinese mainland will experience any ROC attempts at OCA. The direct effect of OCA is to reduce the sortie rate and/or sortie effectiveness, because your fighters are unable to take off either because their runways are cratered or they have to deploy at highway strip FARPs that are less efficient than air bases or because their logistics backbone has been crippled, or because your fighters that were in the air were forced to ditch because they couldn't land at an air base, or because the fighters themselves no longer exist.

4: force multipliers/situational awareness. Finally, while this factor relates to no. 2 quite a bit, it is such a significant disparity and has historically proven to yield such a difference in successful air operations that it cannot really be ignored. The difference between ROCAF and PLA AEW&C capability and ECM/EW capability is massive. The ROCAF operates 6 E-2Ks and no dedicated ECM/EW aircraft of note (a couple of ELINT C-130s and P-3s with ELINT as well, but that's it). The PLA by last count has 4 KJ-2000s in service, 11 KJ-200s, at least 10 KJ-500s (probably more by now) for AEW&C all of which are much larger and modern than E-2Ks as well as about two dozen special mission Y-8/9 platforms split between ELINT/SIGINT, standoff ECM, across different configurations and generations. The survivability of each side's AEW&C and EW and SIGINT birds is of course fundamentally related to strategic depth and OCA as well -- the side with more strategic depth and less risk of suffering from OCA will obviously have much superior overall situational awareness, battle management and C2, compared to the side which lacks strategic depth and at much higher risk of suffering from OCA.






This isn't to say the ROCAF have no chance to exact a degree of cost vs the PLA in event of a conflict if it ever happens.
But I do think it means the balance of overall air power capability between the two sides is such that it is worst it has ever been for the ROCAF and is likely to accelerate in that direction further in coming years rather than move in the opposing way.
 

Brumby

Major
I think you should seriously re-read the relevant part in the actual study.
The part suggesting the ROCAF could operate for 2-4 weeks is a scenario where the parameters are limited to air to air engagements, where there is no use of offensive counter air (such as striking at air bases, runways, aircraft on the ground etc).

Given the discussion before hand, obviously the scenario whereby there is no use of OCA is not relevant to what you guys are talking about seeing as the entire discussion includes the use of OCA!
My original point was about the F-16V upgrade being an improvement in capability as a deterrent. The envelope of discussions was expanded - not my choice but it included attacks on air bases. Once that is expanded the conversation can easily change. People need to make up their mind on scope.
 

Brumby

Major
IMO the most reliable solution for ECM of any kind is just improving ECCM.


And I have to say this entire discussion about towed decoys is really missing the forest for the trees when it comes to the air power balance across the strait. The way I see it there are four major trends or factors that are either moving in a direction that is no longer favouring Taiwan or which exist in a manner which there is no physical way of altering.
Did I ever suggest that the F-16V upgrade will change the strategic imbalance? You are framing it as if I did. The F-16V will more likely than not incur more pain on the Chinese and allow more time for the US to mobilise. The Taiwanese need to demonstrate that they are interested in their own defense. If not, others would not waste their national treasure on it.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
My original point was about the F-16V upgrade being an improvement in capability as a deterrent. The envelope of discussions was expanded - not my choice but it included attacks on air bases. Once that is expanded the conversation can easily change. People need to make up their mind on scope.
LOLOLOL You went with every step of the expansion and now you have a problem with it? OK, next time, if at any time, you feel uncomfortable with how the conversation is expanding, go right ahead and immediately say, "I'm not making claims on that and don't wish to go there." Don't go enthusiastically all in and then wait till you get destroyed to complain that the scope had expanded. Nobody's making you adopt any stance that's not yours.

If getting aircraft off the ground was not considered as to whether or not the aircraft would be useful as a deterrent, then you could have just said, "All F-16Vs magically in the air; improvement in capability over what the ROCAF has or not?" Yes, Brumby, we all know F-16V is better than anything else the ROCAF has. If that's the level you wanted to leave it at, it would have been a real short conversation, but the real world is more complicated than that; in the real world, jets need to take off, and in meaningful numbers, to be useful.

And actually, the original conversation was you insinuating that an F-16V with AIM-120D would have a qualitative advantage over any non-J-20 PLAAF fighter. And that, as we all know, ended with you unable to show any reason (and guessing A>B when you don't know one, or more often either, value does not count as a reason) why an F-16V would be above the PLAAF 4.5 gens AND you admitting in post 3136 that the "PL-15 may well have longer range" which would be the exact opposite of the AIM-120D giving the ROCAF an edge over the PLAAF.

See below for your original claim:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/taiwan-military-news-reports-data-etc.t3396/page-301#post-557835
 
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Blitzo

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My original point was about the F-16V upgrade being an improvement in capability as a deterrent.

I think you'll find that manqiangrexue agreed with your point about he F-16V offering improved capabilities quite a while ago, and I've already pointed this out before:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/taiwan-military-news-reports-data-etc.t3396/page-302#post-557900

The envelope of discussions was expanded - not my choice but it included attacks on air bases. Once that is expanded the conversation can easily change. People need to make up their mind on scope.

The scope of the conversation has varied over time, however during periods both of you have also engaged in a conversation about the overall balance of air power in relation to OCA, and so it is incorrect of you to interpret the rand study's "2-4 week" number as being relevant to that scenario you guys have been discussing.

If you specifically meant to say that the "2-4 week" scenario was not applicable for a scenario involving OCA then I have no issue with it, but that is a rather significant qualifier worth pointing out.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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Did I ever suggest that the F-16V upgrade will change the strategic imbalance? You are framing it as if I did. The F-16V will more likely than not incur more pain on the Chinese and allow more time for the US to mobilise. The Taiwanese need to demonstrate that they are interested in their own defense. If not, others would not waste their national treasure on it.

That post wasn't directed specifically at you but at everyone discussing the cross strait air balance over the last few pages. After all I think everyone's already established that the F-16V offers a qualitative improvement to the ROCAF's combat fighter fleet compared to what it had before the F-16V.


However, your original post which started these few pages of discussion clearly indicate that you are thinking about the cross strait balance of power as well, when you start to try and qualitatively compare F-16V with Chinese fighters.

If I was Taiwan I would request for AIM-120D. These missiles paired with the F-16V will give the Taiwan Air Force a qualitative edge against the like of J-11, J-16 and J-10B/Cs. There are too few J-20 and is still questionable whether they are ready for prime time with its avionics and sensors.
In BVR, there are 4 variables that matter : RCS, sensors, missiles, and ECM.


By making that sentence (and in particularly the bolded part), one can only interpret that you are thinking about the air force level of capability, meaning you yourself have opened the discussion to air force levels of comparison. And that is why the last few pages have discussed the overall balance of air power across the strait as well, it's because we've interpreted it so with what you wrote.

If you want to retract that statement for something else to limit the scope of the discussion then that is fine.
E.g., if you'd written something like "AIM-120Ds paired with F-16Vs will give the ROCAF significantly greater A2A capability than what they had in the past when operating older fighters and older missiles".
 
As I previously indicated there is no relationship to the F-16 discussion and it appears that we are in agreement. As such the "huh?" becomes the head scratcher.
OK I'll take a look again:

#1
#3018 Brumby, Friday at 6:54 AM
You would then be looking at a preemptive strike. The issue for PRC then is not about whether Taiwan can get its birds in the but its PR viz-a-viz the world not just as an aggressor but the moral ground of a preemptive strike against a weaker nation.
no F-16s inside

#2
#3026 Jura, Friday at 7:21 AM
oh there would be events even before Continental China preempted Taiwan: Continental China would've sent agents and small groups of SF to join with Taiwanese fifth columnist, and hit grids; communications; gates (or deeper) of military bases; and so on
no F-16s inside either

#3
#3031 Brumby, Friday at 2:06 PM
Those kind of events will transpire whether the F-16 is upgraded to V or not. They are therefore superfluous to the conversation.
F-16s brought up, my "huh?" followed Friday at 11:45 PM

wrapping up now,

you posted #1 without a reference to F-16s,

so I posted #2 unrelated to F-16 (but related to the content of #1),

and you posted #3 stating #2 was unrelated to F-16; is that it?
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
The ROCAF operates 6 E-2Ks and no dedicated ECM/EW aircraft of note (a couple of ELINT C-130s and P-3s with ELINT as well, but that's it).

It operates on home ground in a defensive anti air scenario.

Unless this advantage will be degraded like it happened in Iraq 1991(which is extremely optimistic, if not say more), this may very well make ROCAF AEW strength sufficient.
Jammers are far more complicated, answer depends on too many unknown unnowns.

This isn't to say the ROCAF have no chance to exact a degree of cost vs the PLA in event of a conflict if it ever happens.

Question is, can such a cost be made unacceptable in a wider context?
Answer is yes, and, for now(taking US and/or its more loyal allies into account), answer will remain to be the same. By concentrating on key parts of its force(say, strike fighters/interceptors are definetely one of them), Taiwan remains very high up in charts for being "too horny to bite".
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It operates on home ground in a defensive anti air scenario.

Unless this advantage will be degraded like it happened in Iraq 1991(which is extremely optimistic, if not say more), this may very well make ROCAF AEW strength sufficient.
Jammers are far more complicated, answer depends on too many unknown unnowns.
Sufficient for what? What runways are they taking off from? What runways are the fighter escorts taking off from? There's only 6 of them, not that hard to specifically target their runways (especially with the help of ground intelligence teams in Taiwan). Even if one manages to get airborne, and somehow it isn't shot down like a drunk fat fly, what is it going to do with very few to no fighters in the air? AWACs are for commanding airborne squadrons, not 3 jets dispersed through random parts of the island that somehow managed to take off from burning runways in a disoriented frenzy!

Question is, can such a cost be made unacceptable in a wider context?
Answer is yes, and, for now(taking US and/or its more loyal allies into account), answer will remain to be the same. By concentrating on key parts of its force(say, strike fighters/interceptors are definetely one of them), Taiwan remains very high up in charts for being "too horny to bite".
Too thorny to bite as long as there are peaceful reunion hopes and there is no declaration of independence. If that happens, it doesn't matter what the price; China will need to bite will all its force.
 
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Blitzo

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It operates on home ground in a defensive anti air scenario.

Unless this advantage will be degraded like it happened in Iraq 1991(which is extremely optimistic, if not say more), this may very well make ROCAF AEW strength sufficient.
Jammers are far more complicated, answer depends on too many unknown unnowns.

The survivability of ROCAF AEW&C aircraft would obviously be in question given PLA OCA and the difference in strategic depth as aforementioned. Considering ROCAF E-2s and their associated airbase would be considered high value targets by the PLA in the first place and that as AEW&C aircraft they require more specialized facilities to effectively operate from dispersed FARP areas -- yeah I do expect the survivability and mission effectiveness of the ROCAF's six E-2Ks to be significantly in doubt.

This of course is all before they even get into the air.
 
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