manqiangrexue said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the reaction would resemble that of the Korean war.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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I wouldn't be surprised if the reaction would resemble that of the Korean war.
Jura The idiot
General
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Mmm, OK, that engine is much better than the 104-105 numbers I've seen but it's still not 145, which is what the AL-31's best variants are at. And to the best of my knowledge, from 1989 to 2019, the US has not improved that number to 145 like on the AL-31FM2. So calling the newest AL-31s similar to a 30 year old engine is still completely wrong.
If you want to discuss reliability and fuel efficiency, bring the numbers and do a comparison with cited sources.
One can make "educated" guesses but that doesn't mean that they are useful. J-20 doesn't really employ rear-aspect stealth so that's fine to say that that has to be less than that of the F-22 but frontal stealth is most important. What radar antenna? You mean the pitot tube on prototypes?
Look at the source. It is Deino's and it is not comparing an early J-20 to a late J-20; it is comparing an F-22 to a J-20. The fact that you think you can judge this on your eyes saying it is the same on an airliner shows me you didn't use a brain filter. Are airliners stealthy aircraft? No, so we're not talking about the same tint; the one on the airliner is for glare reduction. Clearly, J-20 is using a tint for RCS reduction (which you said you've never seen before) and its effectiveness needs to be judged by radar measurement, not eye-balling transparency and comparing to glare-reduction tints. Or perhaps you think... China's too cheap to use enough gold? LOL To me, this shows a later and better design where it can achieve the required reduction without blackening the cockpit to the degree seen in the F-22.
15 years behind puts J-20 on par with F-22. C919 is a commercial airliner so to get certification in the US and EU, it would be much much smoother to have critical components already certified as matured and safe designs manufactured there. J-20 is a military aircraft and China is free to take all the risks and technological leapfrogs it can to make it more advanced. Case and point would be China's supercomputer industry's late comer advantage.
Comparing China's international power in 1953 to 2019 has to be the biggest folly possible.
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TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Part of their air defense includes ABM. So yes those to.
S400 has limitations due to the curvature of the earth same for HQ9 unless the radar is parked In the straight it has a serious altitude limit making it fine for targets high altitude but not so good at low to medium.
So it’s Jet vs Jet and that’s a fair fight.
LACM have a slower speed and as I pointed out earlier can be defeated by both IAD and old school CIWS.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
What systems and how many? Compare them to Chinese numbers of ballistic missiles.
200km distance and you're worried about the curvature of the earth compared to the flight altitude of a jet? Over 200km, the earth curves down by an average of 83 feet; over 400km, that's 167 feet. How low do you want them to fly? You're going to get ROCAF pilots killed flying into mountains and buildings trying to avoid those SAMs. And while they do that, Chinese jets fly high and get look-down-shoot-down advantage. Jet vs Jet China has a numerical and at least likely a missile advantage with PL-15. Bring in the SAMs and ROC should just stay on the ground to stay alive, but that's not their choice, because all their airports are still going to be cratered so they can't even take off into the SAM's sights.
Not after ballistic missile take them all out first. Even without, compared them to China's LACM numbers. Missiles vs interceptors is a numbers game.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
OK, here is a more applicable example of late-comer advantage. The F-22, physically smaller than J-20, weighs almost 20 metric tons while the J-20, due to advanced manufacturing technologies including 3D printing, weighs significantly less to relative engine weakness. The exact number is of course classified but multiple Chinese sources have said that it is lighter than Su-27, which is 16.4 tonnes, though one has said that is may be as heavy as 17.5 tonnes. Late comer advantage... but of course, this is not purely because the jet was made later; it is because Chinese 3D printing technology has overtaken the US outright as even F-35 are still made with welded titanium.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Sky bow III in production. And yes if the PLA fired every missile they had they would probably overwhelm them but only after using a large number of missiles. It takes time and resources to load and maintain missiles although a nation may have a large number of missile not all of them are operational.
200km is enough.
Smacking into buildings and mountains? You’re exaggerating.
And this is based on the absolute assumption that the PLA has 40N6 missiles. The really long range missile system. And the missile would have to be parked on the beach of the mainland to attack aircraft across the island. At sea level the radar from the mainland to Taiwan that means minimum altitude of detection is 12,000 feet. To move it below that they would need to mount the radar at an elevation it’s a pretty clear message that the fan is bout to be hit when the PLA starts mounting radars on skyscrapers.
As to hunting from safe up. Because of the range IFF is a major issue PLA fighters would look like ROC fighters to the SAM system. So Not so safe.
As to Ballistic missiles taking out CIWS around bases. These type of systems need not be fixed. The US Mk15 Centurion system is a Phalanx mounted on a trailer.
200km is enough.
Smacking into buildings and mountains? You’re exaggerating.
And this is based on the absolute assumption that the PLA has 40N6 missiles. The really long range missile system. And the missile would have to be parked on the beach of the mainland to attack aircraft across the island. At sea level the radar from the mainland to Taiwan that means minimum altitude of detection is 12,000 feet. To move it below that they would need to mount the radar at an elevation it’s a pretty clear message that the fan is bout to be hit when the PLA starts mounting radars on skyscrapers.
As to hunting from safe up. Because of the range IFF is a major issue PLA fighters would look like ROC fighters to the SAM system. So Not so safe.
As to Ballistic missiles taking out CIWS around bases. These type of systems need not be fixed. The US Mk15 Centurion system is a Phalanx mounted on a trailer.
Without a doubt ROC air defenses and missile defenses will be able to thin out PLA missile strikes somewhat.
However the variety and number of PLA missiles (SRBMs, IRBMs, fighter launched SOMs, bomber launched ALCMs, ground launched GLCMs), combined PLA airborne standoff and tactical jamming will likely greatly complicate the defensive effort.
Again, air defenses and ballistic missile defense doesn't exactly degrade gracefully.
On top of the effect of offensive counter air strikes, the air battle one then would have to factor in the additional force multipliers in the aerial domain such as AEWC and jammers again where there is a gross imbalance between the two sides.
I think it is not an exaggeration at all to say that the ROCAF today faces the worst balance of cross power strait airit has ever faced in its history. Looking at the projected procurement they currently have planned and are likely to have in the next few years vs what the PLA is likely to receive in the same time, the balance of air power is likely to only further shift in the mainland's favour.
However the variety and number of PLA missiles (SRBMs, IRBMs, fighter launched SOMs, bomber launched ALCMs, ground launched GLCMs), combined PLA airborne standoff and tactical jamming will likely greatly complicate the defensive effort.
Again, air defenses and ballistic missile defense doesn't exactly degrade gracefully.
On top of the effect of offensive counter air strikes, the air battle one then would have to factor in the additional force multipliers in the aerial domain such as AEWC and jammers again where there is a gross imbalance between the two sides.
I think it is not an exaggeration at all to say that the ROCAF today faces the worst balance of cross power strait airit has ever faced in its history. Looking at the projected procurement they currently have planned and are likely to have in the next few years vs what the PLA is likely to receive in the same time, the balance of air power is likely to only further shift in the mainland's favour.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
What a coincidence! The PLA has the time and resources and dedication to maintain such a large missile force to easily overwhelm much more than little renegade island provinces! It's their job and passion, you know.
Show calculations. Enough for what?
Show calculations for 12,000 feet. The radar is mobile; they can be quickly mounted and moved anywhere often under the cover of things like tarps/night/etc...
No PLAAF fighters yet = shoot everything in the sky. Then, send PLAAF fighters in at high altitude, shoot everything at low altitude or climbing. 1 S400 can track 80 targets; 1 HQ-9 HT233 radar can track 100. Taiwan island's not that big a place; it's not too hard to keep track.
Not so safe? War's not so safe but if necessary for China's national integrity, of course we take the risk. But it's still a hell of a lot safer to be at 40,000 feet with friendly SAMs behind you facing down a numerically inferior enemy trying to kiss the ground to avoid those SAMs.
I'm sure it won't be 100% destruction immediately; even an experience exterminator can only kill most of the roaches in your house but how many of these has the ROC got? An initial attack won't leave too many of them around to scamper. The rest of them will be a minute force that can at most be a nuisance and every time they try to intercept a LACM, they risk revealing themselves and getting killed again.
It's extremely clear that you are fighting a losing battle making arguments like, "This mouse has really sharp incisors; the lion better watch out or it would be very painful to sustain a bite." Please, it's clear ROC does not have the military capability or will really, to fight against the PRC.
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I consider them 80s era designs. Just like the SPY-1 radar, still being installed and countinuously improved. Maybe a better comparison would be the F110 from GE. That engine while also an 80's era design has seen several updates and the F110-GE-132 has a max thrust of 145kN, so that would make this comparison pretty much square.
I mean the AESA radar in the nose.
There's no confirmation either on what that tint was all about. Prototypes prior to 2017 had transparent canopies. Curiously, only the 2017 displayed that pink tint in some of the photos. I did not see the same in the production models that followed.
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