Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Mr T · Jan 14, 2011

Skywatcher said:
Doubt the KMT is going to lose, the DPP is in even worst shape. To win in politics, you often just have to be the least stupid person in the room.

KMT lost the recent local elections based on votes won nationally. Don't be too sure they'll win, the DPP is doing a lot better under its current leader.

No more political discussion, please!

Bltizo said:
I mean it's not like the US doesn't know this is a red line, and everytime they cross it military relations will be broken off

Then why does China restart them? Is it so stupid to think that if it does the US won't sell anymore weapons to Taiwan? If China was serious, it would say "no more military relations until you repeal the Taiwan Relations Act".

It's just an act on China's part. It's hoping to somehow pressure the US into stopping the arms sales, but it guesses that it doesn't have much of a chance. At least, I think it would if it were realistic.

I wonder if Gates has a significant say in whether to sell off weapons or not, and I still can't tell if he really does want good relations with the PLA.

What if India said "if you want good relations with us you'll have to stop offering any military assistance to Pakistan". Would China do that? No, because it's a sovereign nation that can make its own choices. It's the same with the US.

I'm also surprised the Chinese side hasn't said something along the lines of "the weapons you sell to Taiwan are altering the military balance in the strait -- you give the Taiwanese the potential to call for formal independance which will lead to conflict. Our weapons are a deterrent for that conflict and you are raising tensions which we will have to respond to. K thx bye")

Because if they said that they would sound stupid, as the only reason Taiwan purchases weapons is to defend itself - that they are only for a deterrent against an unprovoked Chinese attack. China alters the military balance every time it commissions a new submarine, frigate, missile battery or fighter squadron. Hell there hasn't been any "balance" for almost a decade.

China wants balance? Fine, show the way and halve the J-10 and submarine fleets, cancel the J-20 and decommission 1,000 of its short ranged missiles. That would be a start at least.

Now, I found something interesting on the first page of this thread posted by the chief moderator.

Please note that this thread is reserved for discussion of Taiwanese military news, developments, etc. The following is a list of topics and comments that expressly forbidden:

- Discussion of the China-Taiwan relationship.
- Why does Taiwan need an army/Why does Taiwan need to buy weapons?
- Taiwan should unite with China/declare independence.
- China/Taiwan cannot win the war.

Do not try to dodge around this list - it is not exhaustive. Please remember to adhere to the general forum rules too.

It is best to avoid all diplomatic, economic and political discussion. Focus on news about the change in the Taiwanese armed forces.

I think if anyone disagrees with Taiwan buying arms/being sold arms, this isn't the thread for them. Nor is this a place to discuss Sino-American relations.

MwRYum · Jan 14, 2011

I'm not disagree if Taiwan should buy arms - for the route they take, that's one of the necessary evils - what I got bones about it is that their politicians and leaders need to show far more political wisdom and will in this...and be honest, everyone of them only do lips service when comes to this matter.

Skywatcher · Jan 14, 2011

Well, Tsai's tenure as MAC chairperson saw cross straits trade skyrocket (won't say anymore).
Bill Gertz, the F-16 upgrade package is $4 billion, and apparently offers everything short of refurbishing the airframes (new radars, engines, missiles).

Inside the Ring
By Bill Gertz

The Washington Times

8:27 p.m., Wednesday, January 12, 2011

A new showdown is looming between China and the United States over arms sales to Taiwan. The Obama administration privately has decided to sell a new arms package to the island but is keeping details secret until after next week's visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao.

A senior Obama administration official told Inside the Ring that the latest multibillion-dollar arms package is expected to trigger new outrage from China's military. It includes much-needed equipment to upgrade Taiwan's aging arsenal of 145 U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters with new electronics, engines and missiles.

The new arms package could be worth up to $4 billion for defense contractors and will be the first test of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates' efforts in Beijing this week to restart stalled military-to-military relations with China.

Beijing cut off ties with the Pentagon last year in January after Congress was notified about plans to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan, the island nation Beijing insists is part of its territory. In 2008, China halted the military exchange program over an earlier arms sale.

Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie said after meeting with Mr. Gates on Monday that China has been "clear and consistent" in opposing arms sales to Taiwan, claiming they "seriously damaged China's core interests, and we do not want to see that happen again." He also added that "neither do we hope that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will again and further disrupt our bilateral and military-to-military relationship."

Mr. Gates told reporters later that decisions on arms sales are focused on defensive capabilities and obligations based on U.S. law. He said he told the Chinese "we were not going to change our policy, but clearly over time, if the environment changed and if the relationship between China and Taiwan continued to improve and the security environment for Taiwan changed, then perhaps that would create the conditions for re-examining all of this."

However, it would be "an evolutionary and a long-term process," he said, adding, "I don't think that's anything that's going to happen anytime soon."

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, said the arms package has been approved by all U.S. agencies except the State Department. Once it is fully approved, Taiwan will decide what to buy for retrofitting the F-16s. A final notice to Congress is not expected until later this year, he said.

Defense sources said Taiwan's request to buy more modern F-16s is still being considered, but the upgrade package is assured.

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Guess there won't be money for any other big purchases for the next year or two.

Blitzo · Jan 14, 2011

Mr T said:
KMT lost the recent local elections based on votes won nationally. Don't be too sure they'll win, the DPP is doing a lot better under its current leader.

No more political discussion, please!

Then why does China restart them? Is it so stupid to think that if it does the US won't sell anymore weapons to Taiwan? If China was serious, it would say "no more military relations until you repeal the Taiwan Relations Act".

It's just an act on China's part. It's hoping to somehow pressure the US into stopping the arms sales, but it guesses that it doesn't have much of a chance. At least, I think it would if it were realistic.

What if India said "if you want good relations with us you'll have to stop offering any military assistance to Pakistan". Would China do that? No, because it's a sovereign nation that can make its own choices. It's the same with the US.

Because if they said that they would sound stupid, as the only reason Taiwan purchases weapons is to defend itself - that they are only for a deterrent against an unprovoked Chinese attack. China alters the military balance every time it commissions a new submarine, frigate, missile battery or fighter squadron. Hell there hasn't been any "balance" for almost a decade.

China wants balance? Fine, show the way and halve the J-10 and submarine fleets, cancel the J-20 and decommission 1,000 of its short ranged missiles. That would be a start at least.

But unfortunately China has interests beyond Taiwan -- and the Taiwanese military can be seen as a destabilizing force which could prompt Taiwan to declare (unprovoked) independence which would lead to war. Therefore the weapons the PLA field are a deterrent to conflict.

Now, I found something interesting on the first page of this thread posted by the chief moderator.

I think if anyone disagrees with Taiwan buying arms/being sold arms, this isn't the thread for them. Nor is this a place to discuss Sino-American relations.

All that aside, I'm not trying to say Taiwan shouldn't get weapons but rather that the the US can't really expect to improve military relations the way they're going now.
I'll stop now if you will -- I just started discussing this because I found the timing with the new round of weapon sales is so soon after Gates visit to China.

Blitzo · Jan 14, 2011

I think the best option for Taiwan in the air is to keep their air force in shape while procuring more SAMs -- Patriots and the Sky meteor or sky sword or whatever -- and use SAMs as their main method of denying airspace rather than primarily using fighter aircraft; it would probably be more cost effective and harder for the PLAAF to neutralize.

Aero_Wing_32 · Jan 14, 2011

That would be an impressive package...

More on the subject / from the Taipei Times, same article in chinese at todays China Times newspaper :

US has decided on new arms sale to Taiwan: media

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Sat, Jan 15, 2011

By Vincent Y. Chao / Staff Reporter, with CNA

US-based media reported on Thursday that the US government had privately decided to sell a new arms package to Taiwan, but was keeping it under wraps until after an official delegation by Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) visits next week.

Quoting unnamed senior US government officials, the Washington Times said the package would include new upgrades for Taiwan’s aging arsenal of US-made F-16A/Bs and it is expected to trigger fresh outrage from Beijing.

In Taiwan, the Ministry of National Defense and the Air Force would neither confirm nor deny the information, with officials saying they had yet to learn of the content of the reports.

In recent years, Taiwan has made repeated requests for purchases of F-16C/D aircraft from the US, saying the fighters were necessary to ensure balance in the Taiwan Strait following reports of China’s development and testing of fourth and fifth-generation fighter aircraft, including the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter.

The prototype plane — China’s first radar-eluding stealth fighter, seen as match for the US’ F-22 — reportedly made its first test flight on Wednesday. Experts said that when operational, the fighter would likely overwhelm Taiwanese defense capabilities.

The Washington Times reported that while Taiwan’s request for F-16C/Ds was still being considered, the upgrade package, which would provide the existing fleet with new electronics, engines and missiles, had already been secured.
Other elements of the arms package could include new radar, possibly the advanced Active Electronically Scanned Array system and AIM-9X air-to-air missiles, the report said.
Time is running short for the new F-16 request. US lawmakers who support their inclusion have said that F-16 production lines are expected to close soon, possibly later this year, and are unlikely to be reopened.

The news comes at a sensitive time for US-China relations, with Hu expected to meet US President Barack Obama at the White House on Wednesday. Beijing cut military exchanges after a previous arms deal last year and imposed sanctions on US firms involved in the deal.

One of the aims of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ three-day visit to Beijing earlier this week was to reactivate military exchanges between the US and China.

At a joint press conference on Monday, Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) said the US should halt future arms sales to Taiwan, as they “jeopardized China’s core interests.”

Reports said Gates later told reporters he did not believe the US’ arms sales policy toward Taiwan would change anytime soon.

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), a member of the legislature’s Foreign and National Defense Committee, said that based on recent meetings with US government officials, the upgrade package for the F-16s could materialize “soon,” adding that the deal was likelier to materialize than the sale of new F-16C/Ds.
Under the US’ Taiwan Relations Act, the US is obliged to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, although sales of major hardware, including fighter aircraft, have become less frequent in recent years.

Most of Taiwan’s arsenal of Air Force fighters other than the F-16A/Bs could be retired by 2025, with F-5E/Fs scheduled to be decommissioned between 2014 and 2017.

Spartan95 · Jan 15, 2011

Mr T said:
I'm not holding my breath for the French to sell any new, substantial weapons to Taiwan.

Be that as it may, it proves that ROC is not reliant entirely on the US for military purchases (you said that ROCAF can't do anything if US don't sell it aircraft in your post).

And France isn't the only fighter exporter in the world. ROC can turn to other options, such as the Gripen, or even Russian SU/MIGs.

Mr T said:
Probably because the KMT kept vetoing the arms purchases in the legislative for most of those 8 years. By the time they decided they might win the 2008 election and therefore needed to upgrade the armed forces, the US was more reluctant to sell arms.

Yes, the military modernisation was made a sacrifical lamb by their internal politics (8 years wasted is a common senitment in the ROC military). Which is why I questioned whether they are in denial in my earlier post.

MwRYum · Jan 15, 2011

Spartan95 said:
Be that as it may, it proves that ROC is not reliant entirely on the US for military purchases (you said that ROCAF can't do anything if US don't sell it aircraft in your post).

And France isn't the only fighter exporter in the world. ROC can turn to other options, such as the Gripen, or even Russian SU/MIGs.

First of all, there's the problem if other countries would sell them, while risk to lose out in trades and more with China. Neither is this the world when such can do so "quietly", not to mention Taiwanese MPs have a tendency to disclose such trade to grab headlines for themselves, and blew the whole operation in the process.

As for source, it's for more complex - things like Gripen has a large portion of US technologies and that means should Sweden braved the China's "response", that'd depend on US's blessing in how advanced they'd let ROCAF moved forward. Next would be systems - even now ROCAF and ROCN have to contend with both US and French system (F-CK-1 and other home-grown weapon systems are spawned from US heritage, so fall), to include the Russian systems would be far too taxing on the logistics for Taiwan who have not been that rich in financial and manpower base.

While Singapore isn't a good comparison sample (the political will, public opinion, procurement channels, local defense industry and funding towards military are the direct opposite to Taiwan), even they'd limit their diversification in their branches - airforce is largely US with a few Eurpoean/Russian components, navy with largely European/French-based components, army with largely local made units with the exception of MBTs.

Spartan95 said:
Yes, the military modernisation was made a sacrifical lamb by their internal politics (8 years wasted is a common senitment in the ROC military). Which is why I questioned whether they are in denial in my earlier post.

Taiwanese knew that too well they've wasted those 8 years - more if you include the years prior to that, when they began to let AIDC to bleed its talent pool. But their politicians cares only about elections, and little about doing real works, especially those that requires long-term investments, and when it bears fruit it'd be very well claimed by anyone but them...

Spartan95 · Jan 16, 2011

MwRYum said:
First of all, there's the problem if other countries would sell them, while risk to lose out in trades and more with China. Neither is this the world when such can do so "quietly", not to mention Taiwanese MPs have a tendency to disclose such trade to grab headlines for themselves, and blew the whole operation in the process.

As for source, it's for more complex - things like Gripen has a large portion of US technologies and that means should Sweden braved the China's "response", that'd depend on US's blessing in how advanced they'd let ROCAF moved forward. Next would be systems - even now ROCAF and ROCN have to contend with both US and French system (F-CK-1 and other home-grown weapon systems are spawned from US heritage, so fall), to include the Russian systems would be far too taxing on the logistics for Taiwan who have not been that rich in financial and manpower base.

While Singapore isn't a good comparison sample (the political will, public opinion, procurement channels, local defense industry and funding towards military are the direct opposite to Taiwan), even they'd limit their diversification in their branches - airforce is largely US with a few Eurpoean/Russian components, navy with largely European/French-based components, army with largely local made units with the exception of MBTs.

Taiwanese knew that too well they've wasted those 8 years - more if you include the years prior to that, when they began to let AIDC to bleed its talent pool. But their politicians cares only about elections, and little about doing real works, especially those that requires long-term investments, and when it bears fruit it'd be very well claimed by anyone but them...

These are all valid points.

However, minimally the ROC administration needs to do more to modernise their military. They are currently relying entirely on US without exploring other options. Is that a tenable position given the massive modernisation the PLA is under-going?

And the reason for mentioning Sweden's Gripen is because they did "brave" PRC's response by giving the Nobel Peace prize to Liu Xiaobo. Other than Gripen, Sweden can also sell ROCAF the Saab340 AEW, Visby Stealth Corvette and their littoral submarine. That's quite a bit of modernisation right there.

Mr T · Jan 16, 2011

Spartan95 said:
Other than Gripen, Sweden can also sell ROCAF the Saab340 AEW, Visby Stealth Corvette and their littoral submarine. That's quite a bit of modernisation right there.

Liu Xiaobo isn't relevent, because the Swedish government didn't order the prize to go to him. The committee made its own decision, and there wasn't much that could be done to stop them. Sweden could sell weapons to Taiwan but it won't.

I'm sure that all avenues are explored and no doors of opportunity have been closed. But realistically at the moment the US is the only major supplier out there, unless the French through up a surprise. That is based on years of trends and action/inactivity. At the moment many countries are both running scared of and trying to suck up to China for more trade. Taiwan can't compete with that.

Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Mr T

Senior Member

MwRYum

Major

Skywatcher

Captain

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Aero_Wing_32

Junior Member

Spartan95

Junior Member

MwRYum

Major

Spartan95

Junior Member

Mr T

Senior Member