state debt and how it works

Kurt

Junior Member
Nixon dropped the gold standard in 1972? I thought FDR did in 1933
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The US did it when the Pound Sterling and Franc were the world's currency.

It is not like the US have the resource for themselves -> her oil reserves are purely strategic, while most of her ore and coal reserves are now depleted.

Who cares about credit rating? well, if all US bond yield go up the US govt have to pay more, and therefore the citizen will have to pay more taxes. Unless the US household income increases with the rate of money printing, you will easily have revolt on the streets.

And even if the US control USD, don't forget that people using USD can still buy US items like companies, mines, infrastructure, etc at a US price. If the USA prevents foreign countries from buying up the country with her own currency, then the money is as good as worthless and other countries might as well go to war over it.

Please, going to war over that issue is a bit overreacting, the US can do with their currency whatever they want. It will foremost hurt the ones with the closest connections to the US, but any serious investor is advised to diversify his investments. And such a situation will play out over a relatively long time concerning actual change of economic worth with 5% inflation considered a "catastrophy".
 

solarz

Brigadier
Yes, because US debt is in it's currency, US$ ... the US have 100% control of it, so no problem at all :)

But Greece, Italia, Spain, France, etc debt is in Euro, US$, Yen and Yuan, which they have no control at all ;-(

If the US lowers the value of its currency by printing money, the cost of its imports will go up. Since 95% of everyday items in the US are imported, that effectively means wild inflation for the common people. How do you think the American people will react to that?

I guess the US could return to manufacturing, but according to this site:

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The average salary in the manufacturing sector in the US is $2372 USD per month.
In China, it's $134 USD per month.

How much of a pay cut do you think US workers would be willing to take?
 

Kurt

Junior Member
That's still comparing apples and oranges. US workers don't operate under the same conditions. While it doesn't pay off to use sophisticated machinery at such a low wage, the higher wage means that you are more inclined towards automatization and have humans as an integral part of it. You can produce lots of things in the West, I even worked at a computer assembly company. To make it short, we Europeans can compete in that field because we are better able to customize products and deliver quality (I was in quality control) and even in Europe lower wages in another geographic region mean lower quality. There's afactor of workers being nurtured with approaches that helped create that wealth in the first place. Looking at reports from China they'll still have a long way to go because they consider human labour cheap and don't use it efficient.
The Chinese for example have an advantage at producing bulk goods.
Futhermore if you look at economic relations, most activities creating wealth are local and can't be outsourced.
The current outsourcing trend is as much a statement about management errors due to not understanding the soft-skills they have in the developed countries and quite a number of companies reverted their shifts abroad (not necessarily from China, but within Europe).
The unemployment is also a statement about accepting working conditions. If you want to work anything to earn a dime, well, you can, I and many others found out. So these unemployed are a reserve work force that has not yet found a goal they consider worth to pursue. This has in Germany at least to do with the restrictive social networks and corresponding job offers that make it hard to escape poverty. I've not been convinced of minimum wages, but now consider it feasible and necessary as part of a broader approach to bolster economic development.
Another truth is that any widening scissor is not as good for economic growth as more wealth for the least wealthy who create more economic incentives.

So my opinion is that we can create more secondary sector jobs, but will likely shift the focus to few essential high tech parts production know-how in the Western World and have an ever expanding third sector that should be subdivided by now, while the primary sector leap with green energy is imminent as it provides the only means for all of us to live a life with enough wealth to not wonder about tomorrow's meal, but tomorrow's dreams.
 

Lezt

Junior Member
Please, going to war over that issue is a bit overreacting, the US can do with their currency whatever they want. It will foremost hurt the ones with the closest connections to the US, but any serious investor is advised to diversify his investments. And such a situation will play out over a relatively long time concerning actual change of economic worth with 5% inflation considered a "catastrophy".

Why Kurt? there are many war fought over economics - trade rights, market access, treaty ports.

If people were willing to start a war because someone else is not willing to trade with you; why do you think that people will not be willing to start a war with someone who made your life savings worthless.

As much as we talk about Nazism today, we often forget that it is the WW1 repatriations which broke the German economy and instilled the sense to the people that they have nothing to lose, why not take it back from the people who took it first from them?

That's still comparing apples and oranges. US workers don't operate under the same conditions. While it doesn't pay off to use sophisticated machinery at such a low wage, the higher wage means that you are more inclined towards automatization and have humans as an integral part of it. You can produce lots of things in the West, I even worked at a computer assembly company. To make it short, we Europeans can compete in that field because we are better able to customize products and deliver quality (I was in quality control) and even in Europe lower wages in another geographic region mean lower quality. There's afactor of workers being nurtured with approaches that helped create that wealth in the first place. Looking at reports from China they'll still have a long way to go because they consider human labour cheap and don't use it efficient.
The Chinese for example have an advantage at producing bulk goods.
Futhermore if you look at economic relations, most activities creating wealth are local and can't be outsourced.
The current outsourcing trend is as much a statement about management errors due to not understanding the soft-skills they have in the developed countries and quite a number of companies reverted their shifts abroad (not necessarily from China, but within Europe).
The unemployment is also a statement about accepting working conditions. If you want to work anything to earn a dime, well, you can, I and many others found out. So these unemployed are a reserve work force that has not yet found a goal they consider worth to pursue. This has in Germany at least to do with the restrictive social networks and corresponding job offers that make it hard to escape poverty. I've not been convinced of minimum wages, but now consider it feasible and necessary as part of a broader approach to bolster economic development.
Another truth is that any widening scissor is not as good for economic growth as more wealth for the least wealthy who create more economic incentives.

So my opinion is that we can create more secondary sector jobs, but will likely shift the focus to few essential high tech parts production know-how in the Western World and have an ever expanding third sector that should be subdivided by now, while the primary sector leap with green energy is imminent as it provides the only means for all of us to live a life with enough wealth to not wonder about tomorrow's meal, but tomorrow's dreams.

You know, as an Engineer who have worked in North America in the sustainability sector, I think you underestimate Chinese technology too much. Having dealt with the big 3, auto worker unions -> I have no idea how you can come up with the idea that US workers are more efficient than Chinese ones.

Nor is your statement about quality accurate, a made in China Lenovo is as good as any American/European/Japanese/Korean product.

The many Chinese scientific instruments I have used in my field is equipment in performance to many of the European/American ones I was using but at a fraction of the price.

For example, since you were in Germany, Chinese solar panels have similar performance and life to Viessmann types but at a quarter the cost. I mean, China do make some crappy products and it takes an expert to pick and choose which one is good enough and which one is to avoid. Like, a lot of your DSLR from Cannon and Nikon is made in China as well.

The fact is, a country need a pyramid of jobs, some in the primary sector, more in the secondary sector and a lot in the tietiary sector. You cannot have all your population go to school for 18 years + 4 university + 4 years training + 5 years experience to get his title to become an engineer or something similar.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
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This is an article by the partisan Noble prize economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times.
It points out that debt itself is not neccessarily a problem, nor does America have an economic problem by foreign debt holders because Americans receive higher interests for the money they lend than for the money they borrow.
To make the point quick to understand, under current conditions, the USA could borrow money in China, lend it to another state (for example a EU member) and would make a profit.
The current debt level is even rather irrelevant if the right economic policy is pursued because if you look at WWII you can see how the US made a GDP growth while not actually paying back the war debt, but creating money to make it irrelevant.
So if you look for example at the US debt in Chinese hands, how does that compare to the Fed's share of US debt and ability to acquire more of that debt.

So other than the debt issue, that is often associated with failling US hegemony, and the Chinese US debt stakeholding, associated with the rising power of a new peer competitor, the whole financial interdependence could be overstated as well as the mutual interdependence.
In a way the PR China issue, pushed as a military aggressive competitor serves as a very strange rationale for an enormous military budget and accustomes people to the idea of a clash.
I have doubts that the US is economically as weak as often presented because the article is quite right that state debt is a different animal from private debt.
I think WWII is a bad analogy. People forget the fact that Continential US was largely untouched by armed conflict and therefore did not need to rebuild infrastructure and businesses. Rather it was largely left without competition after the War. Sure you had the Soviet Union but it wasn't really capitalist, and other economies in Europe and Japan were devastated by war. Rest of the world was still undeveloped and barely achieving industrialization. Add in the fact that W. European countries were indebted to US (like Germany which was not able to repay its debts to USA until 1970s) from the Marshall Plan you have a scenario unlikely to repeat it self.

Still i do not think debt right now is our main concern but rather growth. So long as investors keep interest rates low by buying bonds and t-bills, I think we're safe. Still the markets as such the human mind is fickle and can change at a moments notice so there is always the danger of a crash.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
If the US lowers the value of its currency by printing money, the cost of its imports will go up. Since 95% of everyday items in the US are imported, that effectively means wild inflation for the common people. How do you think the American people will react to that?

I guess the US could return to manufacturing, but according to this site:

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The average salary in the manufacturing sector in the US is $2372 USD per month.
In China, it's $134 USD per month.

How much of a pay cut do you think US workers would be willing to take?


It seems you have a very short memory :)

Remember in the end of 2008 when Lehmann Bro collapsed, the whole thing were about how bad US economy was and guess what currency strengthened ? ... right US$, even the economic crisis was actually US economy crisis.

1 A$ at that time was equal to roughly 0.59 US$ from high 0.98 a few months before the event, almost half the value ... same thing happened to most currencies (apart from YEN and YUAN from my memory), 1 NZ$ was equal to 0.45 from high 0.84. Not sure whether you understand why the above anomaly hapenned, I do :)
 

Lezt

Junior Member
It seems you have a very short memory :)

Remember in the end of 2008 when Lehmann Bro collapsed, the whole thing were about how bad US economy was and guess what currency strengthened ? ... right US$, even the economic crisis was actually US economy crisis.

1 A$ at that time was equal to roughly 0.59 US$ from high 0.98 a few months before the event, almost half the value ... same thing happened to most currencies (apart from YEN and YUAN from my memory), 1 NZ$ was equal to 0.45 from high 0.84. Not sure whether you understand why the above anomaly hapenned, I do :)

your statement is only correct if the A$ is a good gauge of value and that it does not fluctuate.

Frankly, the USD had not really strengthened, purchasing power and belief in the USD is much lower than before. Exchange rates are all but one indicator of the currency strength.

likewise, I can choose to show that the USD was weaker against gold, 1 ounce of gold in 2008 is around 850 USD, while today it is around 1600 USD -> does that mean that the USD depreciated ~50% or did gold appreciate ~100%?
 

delft

Brigadier
A new world currency system was developed in Bretton Woods (
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) in 1944. Currencies were to be convertible into US dollars at a nearly constant exchange rates, beside of course occasional devaluation or revaluation.The US dollar would be convertible into gold at $35/troy oz.This system worked, but for a devaluation of the US $ to 42.22/troy oz. until Nixon abolished it, since when no hard currency exists in the world. The US has been rigging the system for their own convenience from the beginning and has operated artificially low interest rates from the time of President Reagan. There was no alternative so they could safely do so. But now, confronted with "Quantative Easing" including the Fed buying US debt with money created from thin air, countries are preparing for the end of the system. A few years ago China opened trade with smaller neighbors to use RMB and this has been extended to some African countries and recently Japan. The volume is still small and the failure of the dollar would still be a major disaster for international trade but a smaller disaster than it would have been five years ago.
The US import a lot of oil and a large amount of industrial products and of course cocaine and heroin so a large drop in value of the dollar would have serious consequences but I don't expect anything like what happened in Germany nearly ninety years ago.
One way the US tried to avoid the loss of economic competitiveness was by a system of forced trade. By having a large garrison In Iraq the oil countries around Iraq would be dissuaded from acting against US interests. A commentary in yesterday's Christian Science Monitor (
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) argued that the US needed to keep 20 000 to 30 000 troops in Afghanistan in order to persuade that country and other Central Asian countries to trade with US companies. I don't think this will succeed.
All together we are at the end of the Nixon system and no-one knows what will come next but it is likely to be drastically different from what went before.
 
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solarz

Brigadier
It seems you have a very short memory :)

Remember in the end of 2008 when Lehmann Bro collapsed, the whole thing were about how bad US economy was and guess what currency strengthened ? ... right US$, even the economic crisis was actually US economy crisis.

1 A$ at that time was equal to roughly 0.59 US$ from high 0.98 a few months before the event, almost half the value ... same thing happened to most currencies (apart from YEN and YUAN from my memory), 1 NZ$ was equal to 0.45 from high 0.84. Not sure whether you understand why the above anomaly hapenned, I do :)

Read the post to which I'm responding to. We're talking about the US deliberately devaluing its dollar, not the US suffering some economic recession.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
your statement is only correct if the A$ is a good gauge of value and that it does not fluctuate.

Frankly, the USD had not really strengthened, purchasing power and belief in the USD is much lower than before. Exchange rates are all but one indicator of the currency strength.

likewise, I can choose to show that the USD was weaker against gold, 1 ounce of gold in 2008 is around 850 USD, while today it is around 1600 USD -> does that mean that the USD depreciated ~50% or did gold appreciate ~100%?

If you are talking about Gold, Gold dropped to around US$500 to $600 in 2009.

I said most currencies. A$ and NZ$ are just example, British Pound, Euro, are included
 
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