South East Asia Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Jura said:

Today at 5:22 PM
now I'm guessing this is a confirmation:
Kontrak Pengadaan Diteken, Sukhoi Su-35 Tiba di Indonesia Oktober

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Indonesia's programme to procure Sukhoi Su-35 'Flanker-E' multirole combat aircraft from Russia is at risk of termination because of the possible consequences of US legislation that seeks to penalise procurers of Russian military systems.

Air Commodore Novyan Samyoga, the chief of information in the Indonesian Air Force (Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara: TNI-AU), told Jane's at the Indo Defence show in Jakarta on 7 November that if the US places overbearing restrictions on Indonesia through the legislation the service will be forced to procure a "Western fighter aircraft".

If that happens, Jane's understands that Lockheed Martin's F-16 Viper fighter is likely to be selected by the TNI-AU instead of the Su-35.

Indonesia signed a contract to procure 11 Su-35s in February this year, just a few months after the US enacted the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which proposes sanctions on Russia's defence customers in response to Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 US presidential election and the annexation of Crimea.

Air Cdre Samyoga said that even though the contract has been signed Indonesia will have no option other to terminate the deal if the US government introduces harsh sanctions on the Southeast Asian country.

The US government imposed sanctions on Indonesia through much of the 1990s until 2005 as a result of perceived Indonesian military human rights abuses in East Timor. The ban had a significantly detrimental effect on the TNI-AU, which was unable to procure parts for its fleets of US-made aircraft such as F-16s and C-130 Hercules transport aircraft.

"We need to operate a combination of east- and west-made fighters," said Air Cdre Samyoga. "Politics is uncertain, and we need balance because if we have problems with the west we can use aircraft made in the east. We have had sanctions imposed on us before, so we know we need that balance."

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Some of the fiercest Muslim rebel commanders in the southern Philippines were sworn in Friday as administrators of a new Muslim autonomous region in a delicate milestone to settle one of Asia’s longest-raging rebellions.

President

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led a ceremony to name

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leader Murad Ebrahim and some of his top commanders as among 80 administrators of a transition government for the five-province region called Bangsamoro.

About 12,000 combatants with thousands of firearms are to be demobilized starting this year under the peace deal. Thousands of other guerrillas would disarm if agreements under the deal would be followed, including providing the insurgents with livelihood to help them return to normal life.

"We would like to see an end of the violence," Duterte said. "After all, we go to war and shoot each other counting our victories not by the progress or development of the place but by the dead bodies that were strewn around during the violent years."

About 150,000 people have died in the conflict over several decades and stunted development in the resource-rich region that is the country's poorest. Duterte promised adequate resources, a daunting problem in the past.

The Philippine and Western governments and the guerrillas see an effective Muslim autonomy as an antidote to nearly half a century of Muslim secessionist violence, which the Islamic State group could exploit to gain a foothold.

"The dream that we have fought for is now happening and there's no more reason for us to carry our guns and continue the war," rebel forces spokesman Von Al Haq told The Associated Press in an interview ahead of the ceremony.

Several commanders long wanted for deadly attacks were given safety passes to be able to travel to Manila and join the ceremony, including Abdullah Macapaar, who uses the nom de guerre Commander Bravo, Al Haq said. Known for his fiery rhetoric while wearing his camouflage uniform and brandishing his assault rifle and grenades, Macapaar will be one of the 41 regional administrators from the Muslim rebel front.

Duterte would pick his representatives to fill the rest of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, which will also act as a regional parliament with Murad as the chief minister until regular officials are elected in 2022.

Members of another Muslim rebel group, the Moro National Liberation Front, which signed a 1996 autonomy deal that has largely been seen as a failure, would also be given seats in the autonomous government.

Disgruntled fighters of the Moro National Liberation Front broke off and formed new armed groups, including the notorious

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which turned to terrorism and banditry after losing its commanders early in battle.

The Abu Sayyaf has been blacklisted by the United States as a terrorist organization and has been suspected of staging a suspected

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l on southern Jolo island.

"We have already seen the pitfalls," Al Haq said, acknowledging that the violence would not stop overnight because of the presence of the Abu Sayyaf and other armed groups, some linked to the Islamic State group.

“It’s a very difficult and challenging process.”

Sidney Jones, a Jakarta-based analyst for the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, said three of the biggest challenges will be finding a meaningful role for ex-combatants, avoiding a sense of entitlement that leads to corruption and "staying united in a way that can finally break the power clan politics in Muslim Mindanao," referring to the southern region that is the homeland of minority Muslims in the largely Roman Catholic nation.

Under the peace deal brokered by Malaysia, the rebels gave up their goal of a separate state in exchange for broader autonomy. The 40,000 fighters and at least 7,000 firearms that Murad’s group has declared would be demobilized in three phases depending on progress in the agreement’s enforcement.

Bangsamoro replaces an existing poverty-wracked autonomous region with a larger, better-funded and more powerful entity. An annual grant, which could reach more than $1 billion, is to be set aside to bolster development in a region deeply scarred by decades of fighting.

Centuries of conquest — first by Spanish and American colonial forces that had ruled the Philippine archipelago followed by Filipino Christian settlers — have gradually turned Muslims into a minority group in Mindanao region, triggering conflict over land, resources and sharing of political power.

Uprisings seeking self-rule have been brutally suppressed by government forces, feeding more resentment.

Security has been a major issue due to the proliferation of firearms and armed groups that have resorted to ransom kidnappings and extortion such as the Abu Sayyaf.

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Jura said:

Feb 15, 2018
while now
Indo Defence 2018: Indonesia’s Su-35 procurement faces CAATSA hurdle
... and the rest is behind paywall at Jane's

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(by the way noticed as it's like News Of The Hour at gazeta.ru right now:

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)

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Lethe said:

The prior experience with, and ongoing spectre of, US sanctions is precisely why Indonesia needs Russian (or at least non-American) hardware. The US is attempting to bind Indonesia into a vassal-like relationship, the question is whether Indonesia has the pride and will to resist and assert its independence.

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Trade and commercial disputes have consistently caused disruptions in China-U.S. relations in recent years, but geopolitical rivalry in the South China Sea is another bone of contention between the two big powers that's never far from the surface.

On March 1, the issue came to the fore after Singapore's defense minister Dr Ng Eng Hen announced in Parliament that the country plans to buy up to 12 F-35 stealth jets from the U.S.

Speculation soon followed that such a move is "indicative of growing concerns within Asia regarding China's regional ambitions," with an article on CNN hinting at Singapore's fear of China's "aggressiveness" in the South China Sea. The article also suggested that a deal would further deepen the divide between Beijing and Washington.

However, such a claim is simply a reflection of a common tendency by some to overplay China's security threat and to try to link every change in Southeast Asia security situation with China-U.S. rivalry. Regarding the Singapore purchase, Chinese experts dispute the claim that it is targeted at China or is associated with the South China Sea issue.

They point out that Singapore is not one of the disputing parties in the territorial disputes regarding the South China Sea, which mainly involve Brunei, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. According to Cheng Hanping, senior researcher at the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, it is a far-fetched idea that this major weapon procurement is a reaction to China's handling of the issue.

Instead, the decision should be examined in the broader context of the country's defense policy, experts advised. As a city-state that has a territory of only 721.5 km² and a population of 5 million people, Singapore actively seeks to build a robust national defense with "its policy placing 'self-defense' at the core," or "deterrence and diplomacy" in the official wording, according to Tang Qifang, an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.

Its turbulent relations with its neighbors in the past, most notably Malaysia with which Singapore has frequently squabbled over maritime and airspace disputes since its separation from the former in 1965, also weighs heavily in its defense strategy. Therefore, "If anything, this move is more likely to be seen as a deterrence to Malaysia, rather than defiance of China," said Cheng.

Moreover, Singapore's close relationship with the U.S. is nothing new. Traditionally it has been in a strong military alliance with America and hosts one of its overseas navy facilities, even though it has been careful enough not to openly label the relationship as one of allies. Given its lack of land to train troops, Singapore has had to resort to acquiring high-end military weapons, with the U.S as the main supplier. Experts believe that buying F-35s is consistent with the strategy and there is no need to read too much into the decision.

Zhou Chenming, a military commentator at Phoenix TV, also said that even though Singapore's real intention behind acquiring such weapons that can initiate offensive attacks have not been crystal clear "as the country has not faced the kind of threat that would make such purchases necessary in recent years," it is better not to jump to conclusions too quickly and "we need more time to find out."

Nevertheless, the experts are wary of some of the possible repercussions of a combat aircraft deal.

According to Zhou, the U.S. wants to beef up its military presence in the South China Sea, and Singapore's purchase may give it opportunities to do so, given the close military cooperation between the two countries.

He added, however, that chances of big clashes between China and the U.S. in the region are slim and the status quo in the region should be maintained in the coming years.

There is also room for potential disruptive effects to the regional security balance. "It will certainly raise some eyebrows among regional countries," Cheng said.

The reason is simple. With its vast economic wealth, the Southeast Asian powerhouse has been able to achieve a military prowess that far outweighs what its size would suggest. For example, Zhou said that Singapore already possesses the best air force and navy in the region and the purchase of F-35 fighter jets which have "advanced situational awareness and mission systems," would be the icing on the cake.

That will cause concern for other regional powers especially Malaysia and Indonesia. "Regional countries may follow suit, potentially exacerbating underlying tensions in the region and triggering an arms race," he said.

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