South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Well, it is clear that the US strategy is to use its assets (Principally P-8A Posiedon aircraft and US Navy vessels) to monitor, keep track of, and report on Chinese activities in the SCS.

That is not surprising.

More pictures from these aircraft are appearing now, showing Chinese submarines and surface vessels in the South China Sea. Hardly any surprises there...but nice pics just the same:

See my

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Whether this effort to reveal the full effort by the Chinese and seek to associate military activities with it is going to have any real impact remains to be seen.

I believe as so long at the PRC continues its reclamation efforts...and then improvements and building efforts on the resulting islands...and then does not place any truly offensive or game changing weapons systems on the island, that it will all simply be the US documenting what the Chinese are doing.

Otherwise, there is very little the US and others can do about it, and the only real way to counter it is to help other nations try and match the PRC effort.

As I have said numerous times...I do not expect this US Administration to either make an attempt to do that...or to have the influence and leadership skills to make it happen if they did.

In the mean time we can enjoy the pictures...listen to the rhetoric...and sit back and see what happens. The P-8A is certainly getting exercised however, and that will be good as it continues to be introduced by the US Navy around the world.

We'll now have to wait and see what the Vietnamese response will be.

HAIPHONG, Vietnam (AP) — U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Sunday he will urge Vietnamese officials to give up their reclamation projects in the South China Sea, making a direct plea after earlier calling for all countries in the Asia-Pacific region to halt the construction of artificial islands.

Speaking to reporters during a stop at a Vietnamese Navy base, Carter said that all the claimants in the South China Sea must halt their reclamation and any further militarization of the sites. Those would include Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan, but their projects are dwarfed by China's building program on reefs and atolls, which now totals more than 2,000 acres.....

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Hehehe...so, after China has accomplished what it has done, with adding literally hundred and hundreds of acres of land...the US is telling all others to simply stop? Thinking, I suppose, that if everyone else just stops that the Chinese will stop what they are already doing?

Sorry...seems like a reed in the wind to me.

No way is that type of thing going to get China to "stop," what they are doing. At the very least they will absolutely complete every project they are already working on and have gained a tremendous advantage throughout the SCS for their influence in the area.

Yvrch said:

In the US led security architecture shaping up in Asia , even the one for commerce and trading, China is specifically signaled out for exclusion.

Regime change, encirclement, containment, you name it, it just walks the walk.

FoN is just a propaganda slogan US uses to do whatever she wants to do to maintain her global system....

US strategy is to be a top dog in exclusive groups that make critical decisions and rules which have serious consequences for the excluded....

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Yvrch, you are new here, so let me give you some advise as a Super Moderator here before you get yourself warned and suspended.

This forum has members from countries all over the world. We do not tolerate demeaning, comments, flame bait, or accusations against them.

We do allow discussions...but it has to be based on strong premises backed up by evidence and common sense, and avoiding leading or argumentative actions.

READ THE RULES.

So...dispense with comments like, "FoN is just propaganda."

As an individual who have been involved with the US Navy all of my life, either with a father who was a combat veteran and then engineer on Naval systems, as an engineer who has worked on numerous systems myself, and with a son-in-law who is a career US Navy officer, I can assure you that freedom of navigation is not "propaganda," it is a strongly held, very historical tenant of US Policy.

Do not go there and do not use language that will only lead to for arguments and flaming.

Also, this thread is the SCS Strategy Page for non-Chinese nations.

We have a separate thread for Chinese SCS Strategy.

If you want to discuss Chinese strategy, go to that thread...but please keep in mind the things I have communicated to you here.

I have great respect for China and what they are accomplishing. I also recognize that large, powerful nation states are going to have differences...heck, even allies have them. So these types of things we are discussing are not out of the ordinary and they are not necessarily earth shattering.

They just require professional, mature, communications between governments and people to try and find common ground and acceptable understandings.

To do that...they will and should avoid stereotypical pronouncements and inflaming rhetoric. We try to do the same here.

Vietnamese Expansions

West Reef 2010





West Reef 2015

Sin Cowe Island

Jeff Head said:

Hehehe...so, after China has accomplished what it has done, with adding literally hundred and hundreds of acres of land...the US is telling all others to simply stop? Thinking, I suppose, that if everyone else just stops that the Chinese will stop what they are already doing?

Sorry...seems like a reed in the wind to me.

No way is that type of thing going to get China to "stop," what they are doing. At the very least they will absolutely complete every project they are already working on and have gained a tremendous advantage throughout the SCS for their influence in the area.

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I agree it will mostly be a reed in the wind. But it won't just be China not stopping, I don't see the Vietnamese acquiescing to the request either. Too much resources already committed themselves. Still, I think it's a whole lot better for the US to be putting all claimants on notice openly such as this request. It would make the US's concern simply about FON more genuine as well as keeping the neutrality on the dispute. Seeing some of the Vietnamese reclamation pics coming out, it would also be a neutral projection to conduct the same US surveillance flights and sailings to these locations.

Whether this was intended or not, US request to Vietnam provides a way for both China and the US to continue what they are doing without further escalation. Unless Vietnam actually stops their work, China can merely point to other claimants' continued work so they can too. The US will just continue voicing their concerns on FON and conduct their flights on all of them. New status quo.

The US tactic shouldn't just be all about attention to China. It'll just end up hardening Chinese resistance. It needs to shine the attention on the other claimants, allies included as well. Recently, Taiwan proposed joint resource development of the area with such activity not prejudicing any state on the issue of sovereignty. The Philippines was the only one I'm aware to quickly and openly flat out reject the notion. The US should have criticized the Philippines on this. Too often, allies thinking with US backing, they don't need to contemplate any compromises to create a means for peaceful settlement of disputes.

shen said:

Sin Cowe Island

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Shows the Vietnamese themselves are just as hurried with their reclamation. Also the same method, dredging and using that material as landfill on reefs to create new land.

Some interesting quotes and comments after a meeting between Vietnamese and US officials - feels more like posturing than any actual, substantive moves toward meaningful cooperation, at least at this juncture. The US will get nowhere chasing this - "... what is new construction that would be barred and what is maintenance that might be permitted."

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Questions about human rights violations by the Vietnamese government should have no bearing on whether the U.S. should fully remove its ban on lethal weapons' sales to Hanoi, Vietnam's defense minister said Monday after meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

Speaking during a news conference after the meeting with Carter, Thanh said through an interpreter that the full removal of the weapons sales restrictions would be "in line with the interests of both countries. And I think we should not attach that decision to the human rights issue."

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U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter discussed his call for an end to island-building in the South China Sea in talks on Monday with his Vietnamese counterpart, who said Vietnam had not expanded its islands but had done work to prevent wave erosion.

"Vietnam has recently conducted consolidation on the islands under Vietnam's sovereignty," Thanh told reporters, noting that Vietnamese troops were stationed on nine "floating islands" and 12 "submerged islands" in the region.

"On the floating islands, we conducted embankment (consolidation) to prevent them from waves and erosion, to ensure safety for the people and the soldiers stationed on the islands," he said.

"On the submerged islands, we only built small houses, which can accommodate a few people and we are not expanding. The scope and characteristic of our work is purely civilian."

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said later that Vietnam distinguishes its activity from that of China's, saying that it conducts work to maintain buildings erected some time ago and work to prevent wave erosion.

The official indicated that Carter would like to have clearer distinctions between what is new construction that would be barred and what is maintenance that might be permitted.

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As I suspected, Vietnam rejects US request to stop their reclamation, though I find it a stretch to say it's merely to prevent erosion of current infrastructure when pics of Sin Cowe Island shows it doubled in size. But the answers about sovereignty is no different than China.

Vietnam rejected US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter's demand to stop land reclamation in the South China Sea, saying the activities were not aimed at expansion.

Carter called for an "an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by all claimants" at a security summit in Singapore on Saturday. The United States previously accused China of "manufacturing sovereignty" by reclaiming and consolidating islands in the disputed region.

"We have some activities to enhance and consolidate the islands that are under our sovereignty. We do not expand the islands, we just consolidate to prevent erosion because of waves," Vietnam's Defense Minister Phung Quang Thanh said after talks on Monday.

Vietnam also has soldiers stationed on 21 islands and reefs in the disputed region, according to Thanh. A US military source told Reuters that Carter did not receive an explanation over what Vietnam considers maintenance versus new expansion.

"On the submerged islands, we only built small houses, which can accommodate a few people and we are not expanding. The scope and characteristic of our work is purely civilian," Thanh added.

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