South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China has been preparing for blockade for years They have open new route to Europe and central Asia thru land either rail road or highway
A transcontinental expressway linking China's Yellow Sea coast with Western Europe has fully opened to traffic. The 8,445km-long highway connects dozens of cities in China, Kazakhstan and Russia, cutting cargo transport time from 45 days by sea to 10 days by land.

 
Air Force Brat

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
plawolf said:
For the Japanese and Koreans, yes, the SCS is important, but hardly critical. Worst case, their ships can loop around the Phillipines east coast and approach from the west. It will add time and cost, but not prohibitively.

For China, if a foreign power controlled the SCS, they can effectively cut Chinese sea based trade lines.

Chinese shipping cannot loop around the same way, as that would be putting them further into the reach of likely hostile foreign powers.

The SCS is the only place on earth where such a blockade would have any hope of succeeding.

Further away and you cannot easily distinguish who’s ships are sailing and where they are going, especially if those ships are actively trying to hide their identity and destination.

Closer and you run into practically and cost barriers as trying to conduct an interdiction campaign within range of mainland Chinese air and land based assets is going to be extreme costly, if not downright impossible.

So, for China, the SCS is effectively an existential issue.

No other power has that level of commitment to the issue, or that resources that could be brought to bare to defend it.

That is why the whole FONOP business is just a non-starter. If push comes to shove, China has the means and motivation to go as far as needed to win there. Whereas no other power can have such commitment or capabilities to wrestle control from China at this point in time, never mind the future.
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China is attempting to control other nations, by controlling passage through the SCS. FONUP's with Friends will be encouraged and increase! China is attempting to expand its territory by bullying and taking what has been mutually and successfully shared by all parties with an equal interest.....

China has been lulled into a sense of complacency under Barack Obama Regime, so where Obama's Pacific Pivot was largely flying a few aircraft and ships through international territory......

We now have a President who is dialed in so to speak, he is going to keep our commitments to our friends, and work diligently to help them maintain their sovereignty.As you will rightly claim, this is also good for the US and our allies in the region.

Threats and intimidation have moved China back into the "threat vector"? that's China's desire I suppose??
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
Air Force Brat said:
China is attempting to control other nations, by controlling passage through the SCS. FONUP's with Friends will be encouraged and increase! China is attempting to expand its territory by bullying and taking what has been mutually and successfully shared by all parties with an equal interest.....

China has been lulled into a sense of complacency under Barack Obama Regime, so where Obama's Pacific Pivot was largely flying a few aircraft and ships through international territory......

We now have a President who is dialed in so to speak, he is going to keep our commitments to our friends, and work diligently to help them maintain their sovereignty.As you will rightly claim, this is also good for the US and our allies in the region.

Threats and intimidation have moved China back into the "threat vector"? that's China's desire I suppose??
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Threats, intimidation and bullying by China? You mean unlike the US regime change that actually kills tens of thousands using force, gun but diplomacy and coercion when the war hawks don't get what they wanted? No wonder so many African and Middle Eastern nations don't trust the US anymore or even gather together as "allies" to prevent China from rising.o_O
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Air Force Brat said:
China is attempting to control other nations, by controlling passage through the SCS. FONUP's with Friends will be encouraged and increase! China is attempting to expand its territory by bullying and taking what has been mutually and successfully shared by all parties with an equal interest.....

China has been lulled into a sense of complacency under Barack Obama Regime, so where Obama's Pacific Pivot was largely flying a few aircraft and ships through international territory......

We now have a President who is dialed in so to speak, he is going to keep our commitments to our friends, and work diligently to help them maintain their sovereignty.As you will rightly claim, this is also good for the US and our allies in the region.

Threats and intimidation have moved China back into the "threat vector"? that's China's desire I suppose??
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We can also consider all this from China's perspective as a change of tune. We all get the US argument i.e. China wants to control those islands and shipping lanes, preventing access by other nations and somehow strangling their economies. The reality is China is trying to stop these seas from becoming Japanese and US territory by extension. The threat is the US and Japan. The two nations that have historically wreaked havoc in this region (not the PRC or the predecessor of the PRC incl the Nationalists)... of course US wars waged in Asia in the last century did not touch China quite as much as Japanese invasion but nevertheless history proves the aggressor is not the PRC. Now consider how many military bases the US have around the Pacific and how many military allies they have who will be willing (or coerced) to fight against China for the US and Japan. Again the belligerent side is not PRC. So as of now, PRC is being blamed as aggressor, yet it only recently started fortifying a few little bases, built out of reefs. Which we all know the US can destroy quite easily. They are there to give China a reason to strike US bases if those islands are attacked because it would be a declaration of war. Those things are there because the US need to hit them first and they are well armed enough to warrant receiving the first blows from the US, giving China enough reason to act in self defense.

So from PRC's perspective, if they allow these waters to be "mutually and successfully shared" (Japanese unilaterally declaring sovereignty when PRC was happy to leave things be and let disputes be sorted in a different time, and Vietnam building man-made structure out of disputed reef is not really sharing) these more numerous and proven aggressors will slowly but surely take it all and if that happens, China is certainly finished. Japan and US will be able to mount offenses from these seas once they fortify their already formidable and numerous bases. North Korea may be destabilised if the couple wants to create more mess in Asia. PRC has really been the glue for Asia when looking at the mess that was the 18th to 20th century. Never has peace and prosperity flourished so much since then. Best thing is for US to stay out and if PRC ever invades Japan or Taiwan (or anyone else for that matter) then they will have proven their slander of PRC being some evil Communist empire... which it hasn't show itself to be yet.

Every informed and unbiased person will understand China is right in all of this. Perhaps acting forcefully but they are forced into a difficult situation against those who have used so much violence in the past. For China to not act and make forceful claims now, it will lose the impetus because the bad guys have started acting. Why don't we ask why Japan unilaterally declared sovereignty, and why Vietnam started with the island building to claim surrounding seas? China merely reacted to aggressive initial action and hopefully PRC government has the guts and means to follow through every possible eventuality. To avoid conflict, it is imperative that PRC leaders make it known to the others that they are willing to go all the way.

Only people who are against it just simply need to be against China and Chinese for various reasons and they will never be convinced otherwise. There may also be some who can never allow themselves to think of the US ever being wrong.
 
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Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
ougoah said:
We can also consider all this from China's perspective as a change of tune. We all get the US argument i.e. China wants to control those islands and shipping lanes, preventing access by other nations and somehow strangling their economies. The reality is China is trying to stop these seas from becoming Japanese and US territory by extension. The threat is the US and Japan. The two nations that have historically wreaked havoc in this region (not the PRC or the predecessor of the PRC incl the Nationalists)... of course US wars waged in Asia in the last century did not touch China quite as much as Japanese invasion but nevertheless history proves the aggressor is not the PRC. Now consider how many military bases the US have around the Pacific and how many military allies they have who will be willing (or coerced) to fight against China for the US and Japan. Again the belligerent side is not PRC. So as of now, PRC is being blamed as aggressor, yet it only recently started fortifying a few little bases, built out of reefs. Which we all know the US can destroy quite easily. They are there to give China a reason to strike US bases if those islands are attacked because it would be a declaration of war. Those things are there because the US need to hit them first and they are well armed enough to warrant receiving the first blows from the US, giving China enough reason to act in self defense.

So from PRC's perspective, if they allow these waters to be "mutually and successfully shared" (Japanese unilaterally declaring sovereignty when PRC was happy to leave things be and let disputes be sorted in a different time, and Vietnam building man-made structure out of disputed reef is not really sharing) these more numerous and proven aggressors will slowly but surely take it all and if that happens, China is certainly finished. Japan and US will be able to mount offenses from these seas once they fortify their already formidable and numerous bases. North Korea may be destabilised if the couple wants to create more mess in Asia. PRC has really been the glue for Asia when looking at the mess that was the 18th to 20th century. Never has peace and prosperity flourished so much since then. Best thing is for US to stay out and if PRC ever invades Japan or Taiwan (or anyone else for that matter) then they will have proven their slander of PRC being some evil Communist empire... which it hasn't show itself to be yet.

Every informed and unbiased person will understand China is right in all of this. Perhaps acting forcefully but they are forced into a difficult situation against those who have used so much violence in the past. For China to not act and make forceful claims now, it will lose the impetus because the bad guys have started acting. Why don't we ask why Japan unilaterally declared sovereignty, and why Vietnam started with the island building to claim surrounding seas? China merely reacted to aggressive initial action and hopefully PRC government has the guts and means to follow through every possible eventuality. To avoid conflict, it is imperative that PRC leaders make it known to the others that they are willing to go all the way.

Only people who are against it just simply need to be against China and Chinese for various reasons and they will never be convinced otherwise. There may also be some who can never allow themselves to think of the US ever being wrong.
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That's the problem, we don't hear or see this kind of perspective or narrative in the main stream media (so called freedom of press claims). It's always either bad China this or China is a threat that no matter if the writers are either conservative or liberal.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's honestly sad to think that humans are willing to put everything on the line over a few bits of ocean and trillions in resources. None of that matters the slightest when the world ends and we see our loved ones perish over the greed and pride of a few. But China here is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either they exert force now or perish in coming decades because the US and her allies are hellbent on dismantling China one way or another. That is clear to all Chinese people because we can see it for what it is because we have reason to. Americans do not and so their anti-China stance grows out of simple fear of the unknown and the whole communist thing. Americans wouldn't care if they were proven wrong and China is "blown off the map" (in fact that's what many so called peaceful and righteous westerners actually want to see and have expressed so in the anonimity of the internet). So this situation is here to stay because people are just so incapable of extending empathy and are always willing to make excuses to defend themselves and point fingers at everyone and anyone else.

In this case, simple diplomatic solutions are available but maybe there is no mechanism in place to make such a thing happen. The woes of a litigious and overly formal system of bi and multi-lateral diplomacy. It would be so easy to come to discuss the issue until mutually agreeable terms are settled on but the US has an agenda that China does not. China is not looking to take over the world and it's nowhere near capable enough today. It is the US that has proven itself to be a warring nation with military bases everywhere and responsible for conflict throughout the last century, continuing this till this day, asserting itself where it has no business. SCS to China is everything to it at this moment and if it were to fall to the US or Japan, its survival and prosperity will be genuinely threatened in a whole new way. To let things fall to that level would be totally irresponsible of the CCP.

One day there will be some greater nutcase in charge of the military empire and it will start shooting. Hopefully China has armed itself well by then. The war on China now is purely financial and aimed at taking away China's means to arm itself. If that fails, the US may start shooting as they still hold a significant advantage. Will be a good time to start praying while we all drive into the mountains.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Equation said:
That's the problem, we don't hear or see this kind of perspective or narrative in the main stream media (so called freedom of press claims). It's always either bad China this or China is a threat that no matter if the writers are either conservative or liberal.
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Most are sooo blind to the other side's perspective. It appears everywhere on every level. What I've realised is that people are great at fooling themselves into thinking a certain way (perhaps it's because it is comforting to not challenge your world view and that of which has been forced on you through your family, media, religion, school etc etc). I'm not a psychologist, but I think most social and political opinions are so rigidly set in most people's minds, it will take many life changing events to make them more open minded. It takes someone with a unique upbringing to develop this higher empathy and many ethnic minorities who grew up in the west developed this. For example, I grew up absolutely convinced Chinese Communists are evil and somehow Chinese are lesser beings than other humans (perhaps with racists suggesting other groups being even less desirable to have around :rolleyes::(). Only after high school did I start questioning these things. Luckily there were some rare people in my life who didn't follow that herd, although most of my white and Chinese friends still repeat the usual bs despite evidence disproving them. Yet they are still open to China becoming some liberal democracy and Chinese people having redeeming qualities. The cognitive dissonance and brainwashing here is honestly so troubling to find in otherwise normal people.

Still it is rare to find truly empathetic and thoughtful people. It's always lazier and easier to go with the masses because your popular opinion makes you accepted by the biggest group. So essentially political opinions sort of evolve similarly to natural selection environment where the popular opinion thrives in many ways and also militarises and wipes out everything else that is competition to it. It's a great way for elites to control the masses and why they love using the media. CCP does the same in China and the propaganda is blatant and obvious (so poorly done) but the western ones takes a rare mind to see through. Not referring to the mountains of conspiracy nuts and paid trolls of course.

Then again it could all be simply a bit Freudian and deep down it's just a power struggle for wealth, influence, and reproductive rights. Human technology has outgrown our biology. Our social brains are still caveman while our technology has taken great leaps. I suspect that very deep down, every instance of one man destroying another or belittling another is done with convenient excuses prepared, but the aggressor understands the true nature of his motivation. Words said are never what they truly think and feel. In case of US, they never want some balanced fair world where all nations in Asia peacefully operate trade through the seas and share resources that were explored and extracted together. But it does sound like a nice thing to say to convince the masses. I mean if they did, they'd be actively assisting the Koreas peaceful reunification which both Koreas desparately want. Yet the chauvinists hate it and the US is actively working against it! If that is not enough evidence I really don't know what is, but then there are plenty lying around the place if one is willing to accept the truth and understand the evil nature of their own leaders and society.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Actually I think had China not moved in the most likely country to enter the SCS would have been Vietnam since they already conduct off-shore oil exploration along their coastline. The Philippines is too mired on their own problems to enter the space proper.
 
SamuraiBlue

SamuraiBlue

Captain
gelgoog said:
Actually I think had China not moved in the most likely country to enter the SCS would have been Vietnam since they already conduct off-shore oil exploration along their coastline. The Philippines is too mired on their own problems to enter the space proper.
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Placing oil rigs in international waters and developing artificial islands placing missiles on them are two completely different things.
The former does not violate any treaties I know of while the later does.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
SamuraiBlue said:
Placing oil rigs in international waters and developing artificial islands placing missiles on them are two completely different things.
The former does not violate any treaties I know of while the later does.
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China's concern is encroachment from United States. It would be foolish to expect such an imperialistic power would allow SCS to remain a neutral ground.
 
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