South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

S

supertjx

Just Hatched
Registered Member
LIVING WITH CHINA

Modern South-east Asian history can be understood as a quest for autonomy in which process the formation of Asean was a crucial step. But so can modern Chinese history also be understood as a search to restore the autonomy lost in the 19th century and early 20th century. Asean and China have no choice but to live with each other. We are not enemies, but relations between big and small neighbours cannot but be uneasy. Where the balance of autonomies will be eventually struck between Asean and China is the central issue in the relationship that will in turn determine the extent to which the regional architecture remains open and inclusive.

This is one aspect of the uncertainty and ambiguity that my first lecture argued are the most salient characteristics of the post-Cold War world. To reach and maintain an acceptable balance requires Asean to meet what I described in that lecture as the basic strategic challenge of our times: avoiding being forced into invidious choices and keeping open the maximum range of options.

•Bilahari Kausikan is ambassador- at-large and policy adviser in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore. He is also the Institute of Policy Studies' 2015/16 S R Nathan Fellow for the Study of Singapore.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on April 01, 2016, with the headline 'Pavlovian conditioning and 'correct thinking' on the South China Sea'.
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
according to DefenseNews
China to US: ‘Be Careful’ in South China Sea
Beijing’s Defense Ministry on Thursday warned the US Navy to “be careful” in the South China Sea and slammed a newly signed agreement between Washington and the Philippines.

Earlier this month, Manila agreed to give US forces access to five military bases, including some close to the disputed South China Sea, where tensions have risen over Beijing’s assertion of its territorial claims.

China claims virtually all the South China Sea despite conflicting claims by Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, and has built up artificial islands in the area in recent months, including some with airstrips.

Washington has since October carried out two high-profile “freedom of navigation” operations in which it sailed warships within 12 nautical miles of islets claimed by China.

Asked about a recent report on US patrols in the sea, Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told a briefing on Thursday: “As for the US ships which came, I can only suggest they be careful.”

The agreement between Washington and Manila applies to the Antonio Bautista Air Base on the western island of Palawan, directly on the South China Sea.

Asked about the deal, Yang said: “To strengthen military alliances is a reflection of a Cold War mentality.”

“It is in the opposite direction of the trends of the era for peace, development and cooperation,” he said, adding bilateral military cooperation “should not “undermine a third party’s interests.”

Washington regularly accuses Beijing — which says it has built runways on and deployed unspecified weapons to islands in the South China Sea — of militarizing the area.

Beijing denies the accusations and says US patrols have ramped up tensions.

“Now, the United States has come back, and is reinforcing its military presence in this region and promoting militarization in the South China Sea,” Yang said.

Beijing acknowledges that the facilities on its new islands will have military as well as civilian purposes.

China’s comments came as Malaysia accused “a large number” of Chinese fishing trawlers and a coast guard vessel of entering its waters, understood to be last week.

Kuala Lumpur said China’s envoy to Malaysia was summoned on Thursday “to seek clarification as well as to register Malaysia’s concerns over the matter.”
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Brumby

Brumby

Major
solarz said:
Fallacy of moving the goalpost.


You claimed that China's nine-dash-line was "ambiguous and nebulous". That's what I was responding to.
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That is false. You are misrepresenting what I actually said which is :


Brumby said:
The problem is in the ubiquitous nine-dash combined with the nebulous nature in China’s claims. The end result is a direct function of the ambiguity nature of China’s approach to create confusion and not because of media reporting. You are misdirecting the cause and effect.
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You then responded to state that China’s claims are clear which pertains to islands as reproduced :

solarz said:
No, that is simply false. China has been very clear on its claims, which are all islands within the dashed lines. There is nothing ambiguous or nebulous about such a statement.
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I then responded by asking for explanation to specific claims:

Brumby said:
Then please tell me the specific basis of each claim pertaining to :


Spratly islands


Scarborough Shoals


Luconia shoals


Natunas island. Specifically please address the recent dispute with Indonesia over the ramming incident. China is claiming the incident is within its territorial line (whatever that means) and the obvious question is where is that territorial claim emanating from.
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You then accuse me of changing the goal post.

solarz said:
Fallacy of moving the goalpost.


You claimed that China's nine-dash-line was "ambiguous and nebulous". That's what I was responding to. The specific basis of China's claims is another matter entirely, and has nothing to do with the clarity or ambiguity of China's claims in the SCS.
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I am taking the trouble to put together the sequence of conversation to demonstrate an example of why it is impossible to have a matured conversation with you on China’s actions in the SCS because it is either shafting a goal post around or one has to suspend basic logic and understanding to the meaning of words.


You are attempting to justify that the claim is clear without having to explain why it is clear by decoupling the action from the reasoning. It is like me claiming that I am correct and refusing to justify it by insisting they are separate issues. This is simply making a mockery of the whole conversation.


This is just one example from a list which I would not waste further time on since it is clear to me the lack of good faith and quality in the conversation.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
did you know
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?
Indonesia is looking to build a third submarine base in the South China Sea. Location has been proposed against the backdrop of rising tensions in the area (photo : )
The Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia - Angkatan Laut, or TNI-AL) plans to locate the service's third submarine base on Pulau Natuna Besar, the largest of the Natuna Islands cluster in the South China Sea.
The location was revealed in a transcript of a meeting between Indonesian National Armed Forces commander General Gatot Nurmantyo and the Indonesian House of Representatives commission on defence, intelligence, and foreign affairs (Komisi I) that took place in February 2016.
According to the transcript, Pulau Natuna Besar has been selected due to its proximity to the South China Sea, a region that has received increasing attention from the TNI-AL recently given Beijing's growingly assertive stance in enforcing its territorial claims in the area.
To fund the construction of the proposed submarine base, the TNI-AL has requested for a sum of IDR533 trillion (USD40 million) from Komisi I and the Indonesian Ministry of Defense. Part of the funds requested will also be allocated towards the upgrade of a TNI-AL pier at Sabang Mawang, which is on the same island, so that it can accommodate the deployment of larger naval vessels such as the SIGMA 10514 Perusak Kawal Rudal (PKR) guided-missile frigate.
The TNI-AL currently operates a class of two German-built Cakra Type 209/1300-class diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), which are based in Surabaya. The service is expecting the delivery of three Type 209/1400 SSKs from South Korea and has said that it will base the incoming boats in Palu, Central Sulawesi, where the service's second submarine base is currently under construction.
Building a third submarine base on Pulau Natuna Besar is likely being proposed in preparation for the acquisition of additional boats.
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P

PanAsian

Major
supertjx said:
This is an excerpt of a speech by veteran diplomat Bilahari Kausikan organised by the Institute of Policy Studies on Wednesday. This is his third lecture in the IPS-Nathan Lecture series. In the lecture, he examines the impact of US-China competition on Asean. In the extract below, he gives his reading of what has spurred China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea in recent years.

...

China does not merely want consideration of its interests. China expects deference to its interests to be internalised by Asean members as a mode of thought; as not just a correct calculation of Asean interests vis-a-vis China but "correct thinking: which leads to "correct behaviour". Foreign policy calculations are subject to continual revision; correct thinking is a permanent part of the sub-conscious. This differentiates Chinese diplomacy from the diplomacy of other major powers and represents a melding of Westphalian diplomatic practice with ancient Chinese statecraft.

The very triviality of the behaviour China sometimes tries to impose underscores the cast of mind it seeks to embed in Asean through an almost Pavlovian process of conditioning. It does not always work. It can be counterproductive. But it works often enough and well enough with at least some Asean members for China to persist.

...
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Irony and double standard abound in the sentence I highlighted in italics especially since these two paragraphs would be just as accurate if "China" was replaced with "US" and the mystical "ancient Chinese statecraft" with "manifest US exceptionalism". While there is subtlety to this article overall it still clearly tilts towards singling out China to demonize for behavior practiced by multiple major powers.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
PanAsian said:
Irony and double standard abound in the sentence I highlighted in italics especially since these two paragraphs would be just as accurate if "China" was replaced with "US" and the mystical "ancient Chinese statecraft" with "manifest US exceptionalism". While there is subtlety to this article overall it still clearly tilts towards singling out China to demonize for behavior practiced by multiple major powers.
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On the other hand, why should it surprise anyone China vigoriously pursues its national interests, at times at the expense of other countries, and the more it reemerges back to its traditional role atop of Asia, the more comprehensive power it will use? If China is unjustly blamed for actions to address troubles it didn't start, then I say welcome to the big boys club, because that's the price of admission for great powers, and China will have to learn to deal with it.
 
Brumby

Brumby

Major
U.S. plans third patrol near disputed South China Sea islands: source

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n">The U.S. Navy plans to conduct another passage near disputed islands in the South China Sea in early April, a source familiar with the plan said on Friday, the third in series of challenges that have drawn sharps rebukes from China.

The exact timing of the exercise and which ship would travel inside a 12-nautical mile limit around a disputed island was not immediately clear.

The United States has conducted what it calls "freedom of navigation" exercises in recent months, sailing near disputed islands to underscore its rights to navigate the seas. U.S. Navy officials have said they plan to conduct more and increasingly complex exercises in the future.

The U.S.S. Stennis carrier strike group is currently operating in the South China Sea. The next freedom of navigation exercise is unlikely to be conducted by a carrier like the Stennis, but rather by a smaller ship, the source said.

Experts predict the next U.S. challenge to the various claims in the South China Sea could occur near Mischief Reef, a feature claimed by the Philippines and which was submerged at high tide before China began a dredging project to turn it into an island in 2014.

Mischief Reef is now the site of one of three military-length airfields China has built on man-made islands in the Spratly Islands archipelago.

U.S. Navy ships regularly patrol the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of world trade travels every year. China claims most of the area, and Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan have rival claims.

In recent months, with tensions rising around China's reclamation activities, U.S. ships have been frequently and routinely shadowed by Chinese ships and regular communications with Chinese vessels have often been tense.

News of the planned exercise comes a day after U.S. President Barack Obama met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a nuclear summit in Washington.

During the meetings, Xi told Obama that China would not accept any behavior in the disguise of freedom of navigation that violates its sovereignty, said China's Xinhua news agency, in a clear warning to the United States.
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Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Brumby said:
U.S. plans third patrol near disputed South China Sea islands: source

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OK, the USN could sail shinny and powerful ships where it pleases. So what? We know the third FON isn't likely to impede China in the SCS, does anyone believe the 21st or the 50th FON would be more successful than the first? Since US would not risk a great power war for the likes of Vietnam and Philippines, the balance of resolve favors China. Optics is important here, because if regional states see US unable or unwilling to effectively deal with China's challenge to its primacy in Asia, and SCS is part of that challenge, then they will either look to their own plans (Japan), or slowly bend to the winds of change (everyone else).
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
An article on Chinese Coast Guard escorting about 100 fishing boats in Malasia's EEZ, near Luconia island. Beijing say it wants to lower tension with its SCS neighbors, but it keeps doing the opposite. A bit of double talk, but to what end?

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Malaysia joined the ranks of countries taking issue with Chinese fishermen last Thursday, as 100 trawlers were
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within Malaysia’s claimed EEZ. On Friday, National Security Minister Shahidan Kassim
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that the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) had sighted foreign vessels within Malaysia’s EEZ and were continuing to monitor the situation. When asked about the incident, PRC Spokesperson Hong Lei said he did not “understand the details” but that “[a]t this time of year, every year, Chinese trawlers are in the relevant waters carrying out normal fishing activities.”

Spokesperson Hong Lei’s confusion was strikingly prescient; two days after Minister Kassim’s initial report, Defense Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein “
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that our waters are safe” and denied that any foreign vessels were in Malaysian waters. That same day, however, MMEA Director General Ahmad Puzi Ab Kahar
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the press that 82 (not 100) as-yet unidentified foreign vessels remained in Malaysian waters.

Malaysian authorities coalesced around a common narrative another two days later, as MMEA Director General Kahar
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the Chinese Coast Guard of escorting 100 trawlers into Malaysia’s EEZ around Luconia Shoals. More specifically, Director General Kahar said that from Thursday through Sunday MMEA vessels sighted anywhere from 40 to 100 unmarked trawlers accompanied by vessels from the Chinese Coast Guard. National Security Minister Kassim subsequently
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all foreign vessels from fishing in Malaysian waters, and the Foreign Ministry
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the Chinese Ambassador to communicate its concerns and to “seek clarification.”
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