Sinodefence.com cited on newspaper

SDF about 094 pic already reported by Japan newspaper <产经新闻> last week, in same time last week Google search published another 094 pic,Japanese press concern these 2 pic widely.
and the pic reported and discussed in Chinese internet last week widely, some people think maybe 092m, some people think they are real 094 but will be improved later....
that Chinese newspaper report is too late,Japanese and Chinese internet already keep quiet.
I would open new thread for this last week but I was busy.this thread comes little bit late.
when I first time saw the pic in SDF two weeks ago, I was frustrated.how closed this 094 pic with 092 pic they are,and only 12 lunch well.

Yes I know a lot of people were disappointed with the 094 and in fact people were claiming these had to be all a PS because it just looked disappointingly like a Xia.

When I first spotted the two subs in Huludao in GE, I thought they were Xias, and proof that there is a second Xia along with the first. But when I measured the length of the subs, they were far too long, which immediately puts them as 094.

For that matter, people, including me, first thought that the sub spotted in Xiaopingdao, Dalian was some kind of enhanced 092. When the details of the sub were clearer, plus when the 093 itself was finally revealed, it appears that the sink hole patterns along the side of the "enhanced Xia" did not match that of the 092 nor of the Hans, but that of the 093, indicating hull and pressure tank designs that match that of the 093. That makes it clear that the sub was based on the 093 rather than the 092, and this makes it clearly, the 094. More pictures continue to verify the limber hole pattern. In addition to that, the sail of the sub also matches that of the 093 to a tee.

What makes the 094 looks like an 092 is because both subs are using the Delta I/II/III humpback missile compartment complete with the free flood hole lines along the bottom of the compartment. The holes were completely absent in the Delta IV though, so if the 094 is following the same development pattern, the next 094s may also have a new missile turtle back compartment, although the 093 base hull will still be there.

Now this is a long sub, approximately 133 meters, while only carrying 12 missiles. The Xia is about 120 meters. One reason why you are much longer and larger while carrying the same number of missiles is that the missiles themselves are much larger. In fact, the hump on the 094 is taller than the 092's given that the 094's hump has a fourth line of flood holes while the Xia only has three. Larger missiles imply larger warheads and boost stages, which means far greater ranges.

You can have the same sub, with 20 to 24 JL-1As or 12 JL-2. Perhaps the average fan might be happier to see having more missile tubes, but in the true strategic sense, such a sub would be the greater disappointment because the range of the missiles would be much shorter.

Gollevainen said:

Detached from reality? Funny, becouse its often the wanna-be-chinese who are tends to get deluded.

The real mainlanders, the very few that I have had privilegs to actually discuss tends to have far more rational viewpoints about chinese military than the western kids. But like I've said so many times there aren't much of them around and thats IMO 90% for one reason: the lack of good english skills.

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Yeah, Golli explaining the ´fantastic world of PLA´ to the unwitting and hapless mainlander being inarticulate in the language of the western Empire.

Possibly many chinese people would not be amused reading long treatises by a certain SDF mod portraying the PLA ground forces of today as a bad copy cat version of the 70's Soviet Army.

As you should know dear Gollevainen being delusional begins with being in denial about newly emerging facts. Actually the world is changing fast in our times but China is a certain exception since this country has changed relentlessly during the last two decades. Interestingly my experience from discussions with mainlanders (...mainly college students and academics) is that they will tell inevitably a story about how incomprehensible fast their country is changing and most worry about not recognizing wide parts of their home city or even quarter after being overseas for a year.

I wouldn't joint the topic,I just talk to Crobato here:
you are right, that I have some knowledge from your post.I have seen the pic which measured the length of the sub that fits JL- 2,I think people disappointed that because they have been waiting so long.
lets see, 1987-1989 Xia service in PLAN, now,18 years.if this 094 pic appeared in 1997-2000,that should be reasonable,people would not disappoint.
so I think much difficulty for China research the 094,however China got experience now, the later type SSBN will come fast.
this 094 SSBN is not much large, think the displacement not over 8000t,I think that is the naval strategy,PLAN is not blue navy yet,unlike USN, war ship sail everywhere freely.China rather like to create more number of smaller tonnage SSBN ,that fits China condition.

Yeah, Golli explaining the ´fantastic world of PLA´ to the unwitting and hapless mainlander being inarticulate in the language of the western Empire.

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Again I cannot understand what You implifying there? That I would prevent mainlanders to come here I would really love to hear how Im conducting it.

Possibly many chinese people would not be amused reading long treatises by a certain SDF mod portraying the PLA ground forces of today as a bad copy cat version of the 70's Soviet Army.

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When I have said that? Im not thinking that PLA is somewhat in Soviets 70's level...in some cases, like in my bravadure artillery China isent even in the level of soviets in the 60s

But comparing what sort of toys PLA has and make assumptions purely based on that is that Delusion that I have found custome to ethnic chinese 16 year olds who live in rich west and compesates their bullying in schools by raving with their fantasies migthy PLA and invades taiwans, japanese, and indians in the mean time....

Some once said that amatours talk about weapons, professionals talk about logistics. And all who know the level of PLAs rear services, doctrines and organistion knows defects and loop holes that PLA is still struggeling with. Discussion over these matters are sadly sparse and absent. Kids love more of digging tunnels to Taiwan or swirls their spears to block the arrows...

And finally, if my obinions here would dismish unfairly PLA here, last thing that mainland chinese who has served in PLA and would have skills to discuss in here would do is to get offended and decides to ignore us. Those who have served in any form of military will know the pride that it brings to your own army and branch. If someone dismish that, it will raise a anger and fustration in this hypothetical ex-PLA member and He would storm in here with huge circus to show this arrogant westener how the thing really are.

That is how I first came here and among the chinese military forums. Some kids were talking about artillery with no clue what so ever over the matter. I felt outrage and strong need to come correct the things. That is how the thing works, expecially among us who have served.

In reality the reason why we dont have them, is what Crobato and I have been saying.





.....or they just know in their hearts that im rigth

maozedong said:

I wouldn't joint the topic,I just talk to Crobato here:
you are right, that I have some knowledge from your post.I have seen the pic which measured the length of the sub that fits JL- 2,I think people disappointed that because they have been waiting so long.
lets see, 1987-1989 Xia service in PLAN, now,18 years.if this 094 pic appeared in 1997-2000,that should be reasonable,people would not disappoint.
so I think much difficulty for China research the 094,however China got experience now, the later type SSBN will come fast.
this 094 SSBN is not much large, think the displacement not over 8000t,I think that is the naval strategy,PLAN is not blue navy yet,unlike USN, war ship sail everywhere freely.China rather like to create more number of smaller tonnage SSBN ,that fits China condition.

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You do realize that the PLA is not in the business of appeasing Chinese military enthusiasts.

They have their own goals and reasons. Sometimes I think the number of missiles allowed per submarine may have been deliberately limited as if with political agreement with 2nd Artillery. From an overall strategic sense I am still trying to grasp what boomers can do for China that mobile TELs cannot.

The PLAN simply does not have the budget outlay to design and create dedicated SSBNs, maybe in the future they will have. When I mean dedicated, I mean subs that don't look like a conversion of an SSN, like the way the 094 is from the 093.

For me, going from one trial sub, to making as many as potentially four in a space of two years is more than enough "excitement" for me even though the design is somewhat underwhelming.

From an overall strategic sense I am still trying to grasp what boomers can do for China that mobile TELs cannot.

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I would say Plausible Deniability. In a world which has an increasing number of boomer operators, its no longer a case of "one of theirs or one of ours". If a Sub launches a missile from just beyond an opponents territorial waters it may prove very difficult to identify who actually launched it. Even the Isotopic providence of the fissile material may not be sufficient to pin point an attacker definitively. At the very least it would cause uncertainty and buy the attacker valuable time.

A land launched Ballistic missile is rather unambiguous as to its origin!

I think that PLA will not attach importance to them, otherwise, they would be able to be put in there, as if exhibits the same, the PLA's intentions? Also deliberately open the missile launch cover, which only they themselves know.
I believe the US are aware of their intentions, but deliberately did not say. U.S. military on the Google Search once the 094 satellite images are not interested.

Re: Sinodefense.com cited on newspaper

Norfolk said:

We need all the fresh blood we can get, especially from China itself. Those of us who are Westerners with military experience or defence industry expertise, can see things that even Chinese cannot about the PLA because there are things that only military people or defence industry professionals can properly grasp or perceive; but we need more Chinese military/ex-military and defence industry types to speak up, when and where they are able to do so without compromising their lawful duties, to give as rounded a picture of the PLA and the world that it perceives around it as possible.

That said, there are some regular posters on this board who are neither current or former military or defence industry who have excellent sense and judgement; and giving them VIP-Status, especially if they are Chinese, may go some way to providing more balance and wider perspective in the Professional Discussion Forums, even on topics that they have no experience with. Some of us current VIP members could stand to learn a lot if challenged by those who do not share our assumptions and we have to explain them to others or re-examine them ourselves.

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Let me just say that to do as you suggest will have some risk. As much as their would be obvious benefits from going the extra mile to include citizens of the mainland in the VIP discussions a certain amount of vetting should be maintained. After all disinformation and deception are indispensable in war and such "selective use of information" is hardly limited to a declared state of war. We live in a time when forums, such this one, often have information that would have received high level classification had it been generated say.... 20 years ago. The temptation to tamper with or dilute such good information with dis-information would be enticing to many parties that are effected by the types of info this forum is known to carry. I would ask any moderators to investigate the history of any who you would make a VIP most throughly.

SampanViking said:

I would say Plausible Deniability. In a world which has an increasing number of boomer operators, its no longer a case of "one of theirs or one of ours". If a Sub launches a missile from just beyond an opponents territorial waters it may prove very difficult to identify who actually launched it. Even the Isotopic providence of the fissile material may not be sufficient to pin point an attacker definitively. At the very least it would cause uncertainty and buy the attacker valuable time.

A land launched Ballistic missile is rather unambiguous as to its origin!

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Actually experts have become extremely skilled at Isotopic Providence if recent news reports are any indication. The polonium 210 that killed a noted opponent of Vladimir Puten's government was found to be from a reactor in Russia only a week or so after the subjects death. Apparently from the fissile material itself they could determine precisely what reactor produced it. T

This is not to say that conditions inside some reactors might be manupliated to make the material appear to come from another source.... however I will let somebody experienced in reactor material or operation comment on the feasibility of getting away with this form of deception. If what I am proposing is even remotely possible with regards to fooling the investigators.