Should China respect sanctions on Iran?

pla101prc said:

still, i wouldnt go that way. you are sending the iranians a wrong message and you are sending everyone else a wrong message. i rather see the major powers, namely EU US PRC, dont try to cheat out of this one. bottom line should be, iran not having nukes, and no sanction. if iran does get nukes then it wont benefit PRC because it means PRC will have to give up the oil contract it signed.

Click to expand...

Bottom line is Iran has the right to tap nuclear power just like China. Nothing so far proves that Iran has and will develop a nuclear bomb.

If and when there is proof of Nuclear weapon development, then I would support a sanction. I am however more skeptical with the accusations of nuclear weapon development. The Americans have an agenda and I would not take their word on this.

Dolcevita said:

I did not say China should sell arms to Iran. By sanctions, i meant
trade in general merchandise and goods.

Nevertheless, there are no binding international sanction of arms to Iran and China should be smart to keep her options open. The Russians are smart to play the arms trade card to their advantage. Americans still aims to contain China if given the chance and China will be smart to keep her options open.

Click to expand...

China will not endorse trade sanctions because of its trade relations with iran. but opposing to arms trade sanction is not a matter of keeping her options open, but a matter of political gesture.

In the short term, Iran is profitable for China in every way. It's a good trade partner, it's a good source of oil and gas, and it's a thorn in the side of the US that keeps us occupied and begging China for favors. China's leaders see no reason to change this state of affairs and I can certainly see why. The way that the situation in the Middle East has developed has been completely to their advantage.

But that's a bit of a short-sighted view. China has to think long and hard about whether and gains that it gets from protecting Iran are worth it in light of the fact that they might be contributing to the rise of a much more powerful, xenophobic, radical Muslim nuclear armed Iran. Iran isn't going to be a stabilizing force, and if there's one thing China values it's stability so they make money off of international trade. Just because Iran's bombmaking activities represents a threat to the US and Israel today doesn't mean that someday, somewhere down the road, China won't have problems with Iran. China's creating the possibility of blowback here. When you don't know what the world is going to throw at you, why make it a more dangerous place?

Finn McCool said:

In the short term, Iran is profitable for China in every way. It's a good trade partner, it's a good source of oil and gas, and it's a thorn in the side of the US that keeps us occupied and begging China for favors. China's leaders see no reason to change this state of affairs and I can certainly see why. The way that the situation in the Middle East has developed has been completely to their advantage.

But that's a bit of a short-sighted view. China has to think long and hard about whether and gains that it gets from protecting Iran are worth it in light of the fact that they might be contributing to the rise of a much more powerful, xenophobic, radical Muslim nuclear armed Iran. Iran isn't going to be a stabilizing force, and if there's one thing China values it's stability so they make money off of international trade. Just because Iran's bombmaking activities represents a threat to the US and Israel today doesn't mean that someday, somewhere down the road, China won't have problems with Iran. China's creating the possibility of blowback here. When you don't know what the world is going to throw at you, why make it a more dangerous place?

Click to expand...

i'd like to sound more objective, but in regards to iran policy there is no way anyone can blame China. afterall, Bush was the one that broke the balance of power which his father so had wisely chosen to preserve, and Russia was the one selling arms to Iran not China. and its wrong to assume that China actually wants Iran to possess nuclear capability just because it sucks for Israel. first of all, its a HUGE destabilizer not just for the region but for the world particularly DPRK. in a more shot-term consideration, having been backing Iran for all this time it would not look good on China if Iran does develop nuclear capability, and it would force China to give up all the oil deals and disrupt its energy strategy overall.

with all that being said, China cannot agree to a sanction because one it has trade interests, two it keeps the US on their toes, three to demonstrate that China has not fallen to the "western camp" and four it doesnt really solve the problem and might actually destabilize the region. you must realize too that the US is counting on China and Russia to resist the pressure, because it needs Iran's cooperation as well with Iraq and Afghanistan.

pla101prc said:

i'd like to sound more objective, but in regards to iran policy there is no way anyone can blame China. afterall, Bush was the one that broke the balance of power which his father so had wisely chosen to preserve, and Russia was the one selling arms to Iran not China. and its wrong to assume that China actually wants Iran to possess nuclear capability just because it sucks for Israel. first of all, its a HUGE destabilizer not just for the region but for the world particularly DPRK. in a more shot-term consideration, having been backing Iran for all this time it would not look good on China if Iran does develop nuclear capability, and it would force China to give up all the oil deals and disrupt its energy strategy overall.

Click to expand...

I'm not blaming China for creating the Iran problem. I'm just saying that they should think long and hard about the fact that their actions today can have completely unforeseen consequences. Trade is all well and good, and so is tying down the US. But at the end of the day is a nuclear armed Iran really in China's long term interests? I would certainly say the answer is no. That's what is really the question here. China probably understands this as well, but they're trying to play a game where the get as much out of the current strategic imbalance as they can. That game can't go on forever though.

read what i said again, i've illustrated the negative implications of iran fairly thoroughly from China's perspective. but i also think that complying with the US isnt really gonna do anyone any good. everyone has their own state interest to look after, but if both China and Russia decides to conform, then who amongst the leading nations in the world now can actually get a word through to the Iranian leadership? i am pretty damn sure that as off now Iran is more likely listening to Moscow than anyone else. why? because its counting on Russia to save its a**, if Russia decides that they are gonna take the same position as Israel, Moscow's words then might now sound as convincing in Tehran. that's the logic of international relations, and that's why the US is counting on Russia and China to not to comply, it works the same way with the NK nuke crisis

Basically with the Western backed ´greens´ shouting slogans like ´Death to China´ (showing that those rioters know absolutely nothing about the history of sino-iranian relations!) Beijing has probably not that many options left.

The Middle East is currently in a transitional period with the reemergence of both Turkey and Iran as regional powers. China should adapt to the new situation and simply hedge her bets.

To the original question.

Provided that the sanctions are agreed multilaterally by UNSC then the answer is yes, because China has had a hand in framing them and help ensure that the price to the US for "International Consensus" are toothless conditions and no threat of further action.

In other words by complying with sanctions it has helped put in place it maintains an ability to influence and stabilise the situation.

Any sanctions which are applied Unilaterally are not binding on China and so it is right to ignore them and actively undermine their objectives.

Well, starting to respect weird US (not UN sanctions, you can respect the UN sanctions and still get filthy rich trading with iran) didnt do Germany much good.

Also, as long as China and Russia cooperate, I cannot see the west throwing more than "hot air" at China.

Oh, and I do not believe that the sale of Chinese assets to Iran (when similiar sales are also going on to other regional powers) will make the Arabians etc. overly sinophobe.

I've read in today's Times that China now has excess petroleum refining ability. Although Iran is a net exporter of oil, it is a net importer of refined petroleum. One conceivable action, as far as sanctions discussed by the US & EU, is banning the exportation of refined petroleum to Iran. China now seems to have the ability to supply Iran with enough refined petroleum regardless of US & EU sanctions of refined oil.

China must, of course, guarantee access to oil as the US & EU have guaranteed access. Therefore, it is in China's interests to not respect any sanctions that would adversely affect China's economy.