unless US has something worthwhile for china. I don't think china will do any tough sanction against Iran. Although i don't think china want a nuclear iran either. last time i saw the news, it seem US currently try to negoiate a deal with saudi, in the event china was cut off from Iran oil, saudi can provide necessary quantity of oil for china. US don't want a war with iran, military strike only delay iran nuclear ambition. The best option would be get everybody on the same side and place tough sanction against iran. don't think thats happen either.
Should China respect sanctions on Iran?
- Thread starter samba
- Start date
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
They say China is headed for agreeing with sanctions because what I've read is China has been assured that if Iran cuts-off deals as punishment for China going along, other oil producing countries have agreed to supply oil and gas to replace any deal made with Iran.
My question is regarding the story in the media recently about an Israeli military envoy going to Beijing basically making a veiled indirect threat that if China didn't go along with sanctions, Israel was going to attack Iran which would be bad for China in the end. So since they're saying China is getting on board with sanctions which I think is not going to change anything and may in fact get worse because of it, should Israel be punished if they attack Iran after everyone, including China, got on board with sanctions? They made the "threat" that it was going to be bad for China because Israel was forced to attack because China was lagging on sanctions. Now if they attack even with sanctions, doesn't that call for punishment? Which makes me wonder if that threat was actually made in the first place and made-up by the media because Israel should know more than most that there's a realistic possibility that sanctions aren't going to work and the threat they see still exists.
My question is regarding the story in the media recently about an Israeli military envoy going to Beijing basically making a veiled indirect threat that if China didn't go along with sanctions, Israel was going to attack Iran which would be bad for China in the end. So since they're saying China is getting on board with sanctions which I think is not going to change anything and may in fact get worse because of it, should Israel be punished if they attack Iran after everyone, including China, got on board with sanctions? They made the "threat" that it was going to be bad for China because Israel was forced to attack because China was lagging on sanctions. Now if they attack even with sanctions, doesn't that call for punishment? Which makes me wonder if that threat was actually made in the first place and made-up by the media because Israel should know more than most that there's a realistic possibility that sanctions aren't going to work and the threat they see still exists.
pretty dumb for israel if they decide to attack Iran after the sanction has been placed. It would only fuel the hatre toward israel, and delay iran nuclear ambitions for few years. on top of that i'm pretty sure Every countries including US will be piss at Israel. Don't think Israel will attack iran without backing from US.
if US can work out a deal with other middle east countries to secure Oil for china in case of iran oil is cut off. then china should agree on sanctions against iran. cause
1. china don't want a nuclear iran
2. It would further alienate other western countries on this issues.
3. if china don't play along it might force US or israel to attack iran since they are out of options.
4. if US attack(air strike) iran, it would be bad for china.
if US can work out a deal with other middle east countries to secure Oil for china in case of iran oil is cut off. then china should agree on sanctions against iran. cause
1. china don't want a nuclear iran
2. It would further alienate other western countries on this issues.
3. if china don't play along it might force US or israel to attack iran since they are out of options.
4. if US attack(air strike) iran, it would be bad for china.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
"They" say plenty of things, they may have made such a deal to China, but whether China accepted is an entirely different matter.
The story about the Israelis making threats is pretty stupid. If the Israeli delegation were to act in such a crude way, the Chinese officials could have simply reminded the Israelis that their American backers will not allow them to jeopardize American forces in the region by attacking Iran.
If the Chinese were really pi$$ed off with the Israeli attitude, they could have asked the Israeli delegation to relay a message to Tel Aviv that China is now considering offering Iran HQ9 SAMs for self defense because of the threats made against Iran by the Israelis. If they want China to reconsider, next time send someone with basic table manners.
Just hypothetically what do you guys think the US will have to offer China in order to get it to back sanctions? We've seen that supposedly the US is trying to arrange alternative oil supplies for China. What else might be on the table? Taiwan? Tibet? The yuan?
No Finn I think they would need to offer something substantive which is theirs to give. All of your examples are already Chinese and not in America gift. To try to use these items as leverage would simply be a threat against Chinese core interests and would illicit a reciprocal response.
If the US wants a solution to Iran, the first thing to put on the table would be its physical presence in Central Asia, then you might have the makings of a deal. It could make a similar offer with its presence in East Asia/Pacific if it wants a solution to North Korea.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
I've heard the oil deal concession for a while because there's been this story going around that some Western diplomat asked China off the record what would it take for them to go along with sanctions. The Chinese diplomat said, "Find us another source for oil." The West wanted to ignore it because they didn't want this as some quid pro quo situation to which is why they from the get-go, just as with Iraq, declared Iran an imminent nuclear threat. They don't want to have to deal with others for everyone to get on the program so they scare everyone into submission. The US has said publicly China is going to have to find another source on their own and tried intimidate China by using the same tactic of labelling China in league with rogue nations by doing business. Then just recently I read a story that Europeans firms are leaving Iran because of impending sanctions making China their major business partner now. Oh so while the West was vilifying China for doing business with Iran for years, Europeans countries were actually doing more business with Iran more than anyone else. I don't know if this has anything to do with it but there was a story a few days ago that China has surpassed the US to be Saudi Arabia's primary customer, a country that was said to be negotiations with China on being an alternate source from Iran.
LostWraith
New Member
That's really interesting. I think another source of oil would be a substantial "offer" if the US is willing to at least help out (secretly if it has to) for Chinese cooperation on sanctions. These sanctions are gonna happen sooner or later and China would be doing itself a favor to get on this ASAP. If the Saudi Arabia deals work out, maybe China can divert its investments elsewhere.
@plawolf The Chinese are just trading its own promises as well. Sure I don't think promises are worth anything on its own but they are worth something when you put them against other promises. Hypothetical situation: The US agrees to non-intervention in Sudan for the next four years in exchange for four years of Chinese cooperation on Iranian sanctions. If the US breaks its promise, China can back out on the sanctions and ruin the plan on the other end.
Fool the world twice? You think 2003 was the first time the people have been fooled? Every war starts with an excuse from the aggressor. The people will fall for it again and again. You believe what the American military said about its own lack of abilities to disable Iran? The American military also predicted 30,000 casualties during Desert Storm, on the first day. Keep believing them.
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Unless the Saudis just doubled their oil reserve overnight, such a deal would not interest China as it would be a short term solution at best.
You are asking China to give up its stranglehold on one of the world's largest proven oil reserves in exchange for a share of another that China had access to to start with?
Its a pathetically poor deal and its says volumes about how weak the negotiating position of the west is if it thinks this is any sort of prize at all for the Chinese.
Thats ridiculous on so many accounts.
1) The Chinese are will not be offering up mere promises. If they sign on to sanctions, they will need to make good on those promises pretty much immediately. As soon as that happens, they have used up their bargaining chips and the Chinese have no means to hold the US to anything. Your hypothetical situation is a plain illogical situation. How could the Chinese simply pull out after sanctions are in place? Especially if the Americans did something that looks completely unrelated?
2) What makes you think the US is able to intervene in the Sudan at all? Any attempt at sanctions will have to pass China's approval at the UN just as any sanctions on Iran, so you are basically still trying to bargain with things that you don't have control over to begin with.
3) How stupid do you think the Chinese are to make such a 4 year deal anyways? You think people can't see the transparent divide and conquer game you are trying to play? Get the Chinese to agree on sanctions on Iran for non-interference in Sudan for 4 years and look to Sudan after you have dealt with the Iranians? Yeah, brilliant deal for China and the Chinese are stupid not to see what you are playing at.
No, but America got so over confident that they overplayed their hand and got caught out badly. Before they were clever enough to leave enough doubt that the majority of the west's population didn't fully see the workings behind the scenes and Washington was always able to play the plausible deniability game.
Now that you have given the game up, it is a lot easier for China and Russia to make things much more difficult for you to pull the same trick as the world has finally woken up to it.
And you can play games all you want, but the fact of the matter is that the American military doesn't want a war with Iran and good luck trying to get your own government to agree on waging a war your generals are telling you you can ill afford.