Shenyang / SAC - newly announced 5th generation fighter

H2O said:

I'm expecting some time around the Lunar New Year (Jan 25). New year, new aircraft?

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you are being very specific which is making me curious I hope so

SinoSoldier said:

Does the article give any hints as to what stages it's transitioning to? Some people think it's moving into the construction phase while others think it's about to begin detailed design phase.

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The article did not say anything about that.

I myself is inclined to believe it is "construction phase" because my understanding is that the outcome of the joint team is detailed design which is finished according to the article. Why do I have that understanding? Because the very reason of this "joint team" setup is to eliminate the sequential (waterfall in engineering program terminology) approach which begins with conceptual structural design (601) without knowing if it is and how it is to be fabricated, then it moves to realizing tooling and fabrication procedural capability (MTI), finally it moves back to detailed structural design (601) according to whether or not the fabrication capabilities are realized by the 2nd stage. The joint team essentially merged the three stages into one and have fast turn-around and frequent iteration. The outcome of the team would mean that every millimeter of fuselage structure and method of making it have been settled. It is something broadly used in IT, and SpaceX and probably many other industries.

SinoSoldier said:

Everyone says that but no reasoning to back that up. It's probably going to take far longer unless the progress mentioned in the article predates the article's date by a long shot.

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Agreed. The article mentioned "November 2019, deliver of the blueprint of the first test component".
That means the progress status is very recent. Even if it is a final component it will take months for the first aircraft to be assembled, January 2020 is impossible.

I also feel that the "special day" sentiment is strange.

Scchwerter_ said:

nor I... Also some of the people are saying this is a UAV project (I personally disagree)

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I noticed the word used to describe the platform is "战机" which basically mean warplane. A more appropriate reference to a fighter plane would be to use the characters "战斗机". in other words the description is broad enough to include a bigger population of different type of planes.

Brumby said:

I noticed the word used to describe the platform is "战机" which basically mean warplane. A more appropriate reference to a fighter plane would be to use the characters "战斗机". in other words the description is broad enough to include a bigger population of different type of planes.

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Possibly a drone, although it's likely a fighter. If it's indeed the J-XY naval fighter, it's kind of surprising that it's at such an early stage.

Brumby said:

I noticed the word used to describe the platform is "战机" which basically mean warplane. A more appropriate reference to a fighter plane would be to use the characters "战斗机". in other words the description is broad enough to include a bigger population of different type of planes.

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yes that is true, but the word “战斗机” is specifically mentioned in the article.

SinoSoldier said:

Besides the "joint development team" and the fact that this project seems to be run by Shenyang, there's not much to suggest that this is a direct offshoot of the FC-31 program. Folks seem to agree that the article mentions that test components have already been manufactured and that the design has been frozen, so the question is whether the project is about to enter the detailed design phase (requiring more time than people might've anticipated) or the prototype manufacturing stage (which itself can take over a year).

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Shenyang's participation guarantees it is a direct off shoot of the FC-31 program. Furthermore, saying that test components had already been manufactured and the design has been frozen, puts the project at a very advanced phase. "About to enter detailed design phase"? More like that's been done if test components have already been manufactured and the design has been frozen.

Tam said:

Shenyang's participation guarantees it is a direct off shoot of the FC-31 program. Furthermore, saying that test components had already been manufactured and the design has been frozen, puts the project at a very advanced phase. "About to enter detailed design phase"? More like that's been done if test components have already been manufactured and the design has been frozen.

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Next phase will likely be prototype construction if that's the case; the J-20 prototype took 5 months for construction and the FC-31 just under a year. So a 2020 first flight may very well be possible but January is out of the question for a reveal date.

I guess the word "fighter" could also apply to UCAV.

SinoSoldier said:

Next phase will likely be prototype construction if that's the case; the J-20 prototype took 5 months for construction and the FC-31 just under a year. So a 2020 first flight may very well be possible but January is out of the question for a reveal date.

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I am thinking sometime more like late next year.