Shenyang next gen combat aircraft thread

[mack8]

I'll just say related to this back and forth re J-35 and J-50, 4th and 5th gens were and are still produced in parallel in the 3 of the 5th gen countries so far, China, Russia, US. So it is safe to say the same will apply to the 5th and 6th gen production, i would be surprised if J-20 production will stop before 2035 and same for J-35 before 2040, and possibly well past those years especially for J-35, and especially for exports. It will be an option for many countries that couldn't afford or couldn't buy 6th gens.

 

[GiantPanda]

I'll just say related to this back and forth re J-35 and J-50, 4th and 5th gens were and are still produced in parallel in the 3 of the 5th gen countries so far, China, Russia, US. So it is safe to say the same will apply to the 5th and 6th gen production, i would be surprised if J-20 production will stop before 2035 and same for J-35 before 2040, and possibly well past those years especially for J-35, and especially for exports. It will be an option for many countries that couldn't afford or couldn't buy 6th gens.

No air force immediately gives up existing assets the moment a new aircraft is produced.

Existing models have sunk cost advantages that benefits with deployment of new models. The J-15 and J-35 will continue until the new aircraft is mature enough to expand into roles held by existing aircraft and do it in logistically affordable way.

Sometimes the new aircraft never expand into those roles.

F-22 production came and went while the F-15 continue to be produced with new variants.

 

[ougoah]

Not only that but insights into observing Chinese military over the decades has taught us that China always does backup programs and plans. The Su-35 and J-11D (The Chinese "super flanker", not an EW variant of J-11) were both hedges against the J-20 project not producing desired domination over 4.5 gen fighters and being able to counter US 5th gens as far as it can be ascertained. Plenty of examples similar to this but even with tactics, see how pre J-20 PLAAF wanted to develop tactics on countering stealth aircraft. Only now with better networking can PLAAF use 4.5 gens against stealth aircraft with any sort of effectiveness. Real world application may vary from testing though and stealth is always better anyway.

PLA will never just trust CAC and SAC 6th gen without having a massive force of more proven 5th gens as a fallback. J-50 could be in service when only 300 J-35s are produced but it still takes time to develop and reinforce good tactics in its application. It still takes many years to ramp up production and perform those initial refinements. You'd have >500 J-35s by then at the minimum and even if the J-50 is just that much of a leap better than 5th gen fighters, you are replacing your early and aging 4th gens with something at this point. Even if drones are going to do much of the grunt work by then, you can sell a portion of those 5th gens that you potentially have less use for now you have these newer shinier and far more effective fighters while your 7th gen X planes are performing fly offs.

 

[siegecrossbow]

You guys underestimate the amount of time required to develop and train pilots in new combat doctrines after a new aircraft type is inducted, especially for something revolutionary and has no known precursor.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

You guys underestimate the amount of time required to develop and train pilots in new combat doctrines after a new aircraft type is inducted, especially for something revolutionary and has no known precursor.

Which does mean that if the SAC 6th gen can get in LRIP sooner, it will benefit training.

Even if not fully translatable to CAC one, but maybe for others as well as CCAs.

 

[AndrewS]

Of course, it's the Navy's order, but if there's still no low-observable fighter on deck before 2030 and the J-15 is still the primary aircraft carrier, what other options does the Navy have besides accepting a J-35 and J-15 combination?

Delay? Comparing the speed at which the J-20 and J-35 entered service, is there any other reason besides the Navy's lack of urgency? Are there no connections between the F-31 and the J-35? The first time I saw the F-31, someone on the forum was already saying, "Navy, navy, navy!"

On the contrary, because the JXX is unlikely to be fully deployed before 2030, this is the scenario for the J35 to enter service.
If the JXX is in service before 2030, there's no reason to rapidly expand J35 production now. Someone here is even willing to sell you the Golden Gate Bridge. If the JXX can't be mass-produced in 3-4 years, then how can the J35 be?


Yes, because the JXX is unlikely to reach mass production before 2035, the combined presence and expansion of the J35 and J15 are essential.
This is based on naval mission scenarios, and while I'm not implicating the J35 or J15, I'm looking at the optimal option: Is a multi-role fighter jet inevitably going to be low-observable? Should carrier-based fighter jets be multi-role, rather than specialized?

If the answer is "yes," then a medium-to-large, low-observable, multi-role fighter is required. This would likely be delayed until around 2035.
The F35C stands for Joint Strike Fighter C. What was it originally intended to replace? The Mach 2 F-14 interceptor?

The US Navy's current aircraft carriers are mostly equipped with the F/A-18 Super Hornet.

Of course, we understand that neither aircraft alone might be effective.

But this is the US Navy's aspiration: a unified, multi-role fighter.


I think this is you fantasy. The J10 freeze has nothing to do with the J20. That's not my point.
If you think Shenyang still targets the J11D after the J20's release, that's your problem. A large number of J11s remain in service. They've switched to the two-seat, multi-role, high-payload J16.
As for upgrading the J10, we can bet the J10A will simply be retired over time, and there were no plans to install an AESA radar on the J10B. Furthermore, upgrading and designing a new aircraft are two completely different things.
The J-10 can still shoot down Rafale fighters. But does anyone expect it to go into mass production? You'd prefer the J-35.

The J-35 is China's best carrier-based fighter currently in service and is about to enter mass production. But if you assume Shenyang will have the J-XX on deck before 2030, when J-35 production is at its peak?

This has nothing to do with backwardness; it's about military spending being squandered.

Finally, I'll say this: You seem to have completely misunderstood my point: The JXX is unlikely to be fielded before 2030, which is why the J35 and J15 are now appearing in large numbers. The Chinese military wouldn't do these things without a plan.

That's exactly my point.

There just aren't the aircraft carriers available to utilise large numbers of J-35 and J-15.

Suppose we have production of 50 naval aircraft per year. That is enough for 1 carrier per year, and no carrier programme is anywhere near that.

 

[MC530]

There just aren't the aircraft carriers available to utilise large numbers of J-35 and J-15.

Suppose we have production of 50 naval aircraft per year. That is enough for 1 carrier per year, and no carrier programme is anywhere near that.

Producing 50 stealth fighters annually—well, it seems everyone's excitement is a bit too high. The Rafale fighter jet production is 11 per year. The Typhoon fighter jet production is 20-30 per year, and the British are regretfully planning to shut it down.

The US F-35's peak production is 156 (in 2023), including the Navy, Air Force, export, and Marine Corps.

This is the stealth fighter with the highest demand in the world.

The goal of 50 J-35s clearly includes the Navy, Air Force, and export.
Production solely for the Navy is unlikely.

My view is that J-35 production will be determined by the J-10 replacement, the Navy's aircraft carrier fleet, and export sales. There's no rush to expand. After all, we need to get used to China already having the world's largest heavy stealth fighter fleet and the second-largest fourth-generation fighter fleet.

 

[pokepara]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the primary advantage of 5th/6th gen fighters is their stealth, right? This comes at the cost of payload. If you need to use external hard points anyway, doesn't the J-15 make sense to fill that role?

Even when J-50 is in service, doesn't the J-15 make sense for a 'Hi-Low mix'? Or would it be UCAVs?

 

[ougoah]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the primary advantage of 5th/6th gen fighters is their stealth, right? This comes at the cost of payload. If you need to use external hard points anyway, doesn't the J-15 make sense to fill that role?

Even when J-50 is in service, doesn't the J-15 make sense for a 'Hi-Low mix'? Or would it be UCAVs?

Are you implying the relevance of 4.5 gen fighters? This is accurate. 4.5 gen fighters do have payload capacity advantage in some sense. I mean 5th gens and 6th gens can carry weapons externally but that would really be defeating the purpose of their unique advantages.

Both China and US are currently still producing 4.5 gen fighters and non-stealth aircraft of all sorts including non-stealth UAVs.

UCAVs or CCAs are just another piece of the expanding puzzle for future air combat doctrine and network. They don't necessarily negate or overlap with the utility of the three generations of fighters in active service when these 6th gens reach service. I'm not sure what else you mean by your post. J-15/16 absolutely have a role in PLAAF and PLANAF when even J-36 and J-50 are in service.

 

[pokepara]

Basically, I'm responding to this:

The Shenyang Aircraft Manufacturing Corporation has a tendency to speak out ahead of time. For example, rumors of the J35's imminent deployment have long circulated, but these rumors weren't confirmed until the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show. If the J50 is scheduled to enter service in 2030, all the work done on the J35 will be wasted. If it's a carrier-based aircraft, the J15 will become a nonperforming asset, and if it's a heavy fighter, the J16 will become a nonperforming asset.
If it is put into use in 2035 (small batch production), then the production ratio of different types of fighters can be adjusted starting in 2030, and finally the fourth-generation fighters can be phased out in continuous production in 2040.