S400 in Syria - tactical and strategic implications

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Correction, there are some SAM batteries in Syria which according to Russia is an operational S400, huge difference to what you said.

You are free to believe what you want, just don't expect many to share your views on this.

So everyone offered less than their best & the Russian system ended dead last. Either way, hardly a vote of confidence in Russia's tech in this area isn't it ?

The S300 is still a very capable and formidable air defence system, and anyone who underestimates it does so at their own peril.

Don't worry though, Russia says S400 is in Syria & more Nato jets are going there by the day with England being the latest & this Syrian saga is far from over.
We should have plenty of opportunities to see how Russian systems, including this so-called S400, perform in real life, not as according to some sales brochures.

Unless you are hoping to see WWIII break out, neither the S400 or western ECM capabilities will be fully and conclusively tested in Syria.
 
Obviously exported systems are not the same as the Russians' own, and the S-300 is not the S-400, but a related article nonetheless:
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World | Fri Dec 4, 2015 6:52am EST
Israel trained against Russian-made air defense system in Greece - sources
JERUSALEM/ATHENS | BY DAN WILLIAMS AND KAROLINA TAGARIS

Israel has quietly tested ways of defeating an advanced air-defence system that Russia has deployed in the Middle East and that could limit Israel's ability to strike in Syria or Iran, military and diplomatic sources said.

The sources said a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system, sold to Cyprus 18 years ago but now located on the Greek island of Crete, had been activated during joint drills between the Greek and Israeli air forces in April-May this year.

The activation allowed Israel's warplanes to test how the S-300's lock-on system works, gathering data on its powerful tracking radar and how it might be blinded or bluffed.

One defense source in the region said Greece had done so at the request of the United States, Israel’s chief ally, on at least one occasion in the past year. It was unclear whether Israel had shared its findings with its allies.

"Part of the maneuvers involved pitting Israeli jets against Greek anti-aircraft systems," one source said. Two other sources said the Crete S-300 was among the systems turned on.

The sources spoke to Reuters on condition they not be identified by name or nationality. The Greek and Israeli militaries declined to confirm or deny any use of the S-300 system during drills held in the Eastern Mediterranean last April-May or similar exercises in 2012 and 2010.

A senior Greek Defence Ministry official, asked whether the system was operating during Greek-Israeli military exercises, said: "At this moment the S-300 is not in operation." He said Athens' general policy was not to permit any other country to test the system's abilities.

The S-300, first deployed at the height of the Cold War in 1979, can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles up to 300 km (186 miles) away. Israel is concerned by Russia's plan to supply S-300s to Iran.

Israel says Egypt, with which it has a cold peace, has bought a variant of the system. The Israelis also worry about Moscow's announcement last month that it will deploy the S-300 or the kindred system S-400 from its own arsenal in Syria, in response to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian jet there.

Israel has bombed Syrian targets on occasion and is loath to run up against the Russians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met President Vladimir Putin at least twice in recent weeks to discuss coordination and try to avoid accidents.

LEARNING FROM FRIENDS

Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military expert with the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that for Israel training against the Crete S-300 would be "precisely what you need" to study the system's radar frequency, pattern and reach.

"If you know all these details then you are perfectly fitted to replicate this same signal, which means you have a chance to imitate, to sort of bluff-echo" the S-300, he said.

"You can brutally jam it," he said. "You can take the signal and return it, and then you send another ping which imitates the same signal. So instead of one target, the radar operator sees three, five or 10 and he does not know where to fire."

Tal Inbar, senior scholar for the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies near Tel Aviv, said S-300s in areas where Israel operates or might want to operate would challenge its advanced, U.S.-backed military - but not insuperably so.

"In general, any system can be defeated this way or that. Some are harder and some are easier," he said. "The rule of thumb is that if your friends have a system that you are interested in, you can learn all kinds of things about it."

The Crete S-300 was originally bought by Cyprus in 1997, triggering a vitriolic response from Turkey, its decades-old adversary. Under pressure from Britain and NATO, then Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides agreed to store the S-300 on Crete. A 2007 Greek-Cypriot arms swap formally transferred it to Athens.

Greece has experienced a boom in ties with Israel since Israel's once-strong alliance with Turkey broke down in 2010.

After this year's joint drill, Israel's official air force journal said maneuvers had involved all of Greece's air combat arm and "other apparatuses". It offered no details, but quoted an Israeli air force captain as saying the exercise had fostered "flexibility in thinking and dealing with the unknown".

(Additional reporting by Michele Kambas in Nicosia and Renee Maltezou in Athens; Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Luke Baker and Janet McBride)
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
You are free to believe what you want, just don't expect many to share your views on this.
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Unless you are hoping to see WWIII break out, neither the S400 or western ECM capabilities will be fully and conclusively tested in Syria.

Let's not pretend you know the views of the 'many'.
As for the views of those who matter, like Nato, we don't see any sign of backing down since Russia so publicly announced the arrival of S400. In fact, Nato is getting more involved. So S400 is so far not producing the result Russia wants.
Not fully tested nor info fully made public but over the coming months and years, a lot more, than debates on forums or Russian sales brochures, about S400 can be inferred from actions in Syria, especially those involving Nato air assets, the primary targets of S400.
 

Black Shark

Junior Member
For amateurs, such "competitions" "tenders" and whatever you want to call it has very little to do with actual performance of the systems but everything to do with political, logistical and budget. Turkey is a US customer, most of its equipment comes from US so they are very hard relying on US as a provider not just for simple numbers of units and equipment but on technologies for ToT or joint cooperations so Turkey can develope its Military Industrial Complex to become someday independent. What happens when a country does what it wants and does not consider political state and counterparts it is dealing with? You just have to look at France how they were blackmailed by US to cut the deal with Russia over Mistrals, damaging their own reputation, market share, relationships, potential deals (MMRCA failure) and showing to the world who is a bad lap dog. Turkey is far worse than France which at least has an actual market share for its own goods even tho it is highly reliant on joint ventures and companies with rest of EU and abroad countries it still has to some part a weight as a country that could be seen as a partner, turkey does not.

Turkey could never sustain logistics with russia over S-300 aspecially looking at their ambitions and their role in all that Terrorist mess in ME, Russia would cut off such a trouble maker that directly seeks confrontation with Russia for little bit of cheap oil. That would render entire sphere of SAM and turkey defenceless. S-300 is not just a vehicle with launcher it is an entire fleet of different vehicles that are working together that cover each other from different types of threats, Ballistic missiles from high trajectory of high velocities, cruise missiles coming in at low altitude sub or super sonic speeds that need an entire branch of SHORADS, Radars, communication, commanding and netcentric vehicles and scheme of protection.

Overhaul russian genuine SAM's that are used as a countries protection are to high of logistical burden to implement for any country and installing just one of those systems without the rest of all the layers that were specifically designed to layer an countries air defence in such a way that makes any enemy attacks highly ineffecient and highly unfeasible to come with any result for the attacker other than full retaliation response without having achieved anything but sign a suicide document.

Turkey choose A-129 because of a ToT license not because it was the best. It is the worst of plattforms among all competing plattforms but no country offered a ToT license which turkey wanted so damn hard to make MIC development and gain technologies in that field.

Tenders and competitions are almost always a political reason not because of performance of vehicle. Look at Saudi Arabia having different MBT's to please western countries to calm them and make them easier on the issues the Saudis bring while being completle incompetent to use them or to support those MBT's.
 
this is just to post the fresh pictures, which you may like to dislike, found at Twitter:
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Cluster together a bit close aren't they?

interestingly, there aren't too many pictures available in Russian Internet showing multiple launchers "on standby"; you can go to
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and copy&paste into search-window for example:
с-400 триумф
and in the middle of the page, pictures should appear (presumably from Russian web-sites); this way I noticed:
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and
RIAN_02279506.HR.jpg
 
a moment ago I noticed this blog-post (video inside):
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Much hyperbole surrounds Russia’s S-400 advanced surface-to-air missile system, which is now being exported abroad and
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Unsurprisingly,
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. Still, the S-400 is highly capable, and beating it, or any advanced air defense system, is far from simple.

Why The S-400, And Advanced Air Defense Systems In General, Are So Potent

The video was filmed at the
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in the Astakhan region of Russia, during a test of the S-400 against ballistic missile targets. The test supposedly
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. Despite this, Russia claims all four of the missiles hit their targets during their mid-course stage of flight.

It is unclear exactly
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system were present for the test aside from the 92N6E “Gravestone” fire control radar, command and control vehicles, transporter-erector-launchers and the missiles. The S-400 can use multiple types of missiles, and can integrate with various sensor systems including older radars designed for later versions of the S-300 system. This trial appeared to test the system in a mobile expeditionary fashion, not where the S-400 unit is one of many surface-to-air missile systems and sensors that are tied together into a integrated air defense system (IADS).

Advanced IADS are increasingly using some level of sensor fusion to meld many different sensor’s data together into a single common “picture” that is capable of providing engagement-quality tracks of enemy targets.

This makes tactics like stealth and jamming less effective than when taking on a single surface-to-air missile system located in just one geographical place at one time (
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and
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.)

Making things even more complicated is that most IADS have many different sensor and missile systems’ capabilities (not to mention fighter and surveillance aircraft) overlapping in a layered fashion, and some of these could be road-mobile. These systems can pop-up at different locations at different points in times, making them very unpredictable.

This means that what was a once “most survivable route” through an enemy’s IADS, charted based on previous intelligence and often referred to as a “blue line,” could change without notice. If a previously unknown or road mobile air defense system were to pop up in the aircraft’s path it could make the crew adapt its route in real-time, something that could cause a domino effect that greatly reduces their ability to survive over enemy airspace.

Remember, even the stealthiest aircraft is not invisible to radar; it simply has reduced detection range and this may vary greatly depending on what angle the stealth aircraft is at in relation to the sensor radiating it and what wavelength/band/frequency that radar sensor is operating on. Ground-based
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are an entirely different story, but these too can be tied into an IADS.

Once again, this video is said to depict the S-400 being tested in a electronic warfare-heavy environment. Recently, some defense observers and journalists have touted
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, as an antidote to first class air defense systems, and particularly the S-400. This is only partially accurate.

A Complex Solution To A Complex Problem
America’s unique electronic warfare and radar suppression abilities includes the Growler, but also many other platforms and ancillary capabilities as well. This complex ecosystem of weaponry and sensors includes various surveillance aircraft, hacking and cyber warfare abilities, active suppression of enemy air defenses tactics and weaponry, along with low-observable aircraft and long-range “standoff” munitions. The last two are especially potent when combined together and electronic warfare support is added.

Firing long-range low observable (stealthy) weaponry from even a non-stealthy aircraft gives enough stand-off distance to begin taking out an enemy’s known air defenses at a safe distance today, the S-400 included in most cases. When a stealthy launch platform is used instead, you can use more plentiful weapons with less range as that stealth aircraft can get closer to the air defenses being targeted than their non-stealthy brethren can.

For instance, an F-16 may be able to get well within
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range of an advanced SAM site while an F-35 could get within the outer-edge of Small Diameter Bomb range. When you add jamming support, these ranges decrease by a noticeable margin, depending on what tactics are used and what the capacity available is to employ those tactics. The problem is that against an advanced foe, you’re not going up against a single SAM site or radar, but a full constellation of systems that includes aerial assets, just like the advanced integrated air defense system we discussed before.

That is why “brochure comparisons” of systems is nearly useless for such complex military topics. In real life, the Growler does not take on the S-400 alone, and vice-versa.

An advanced IADS including the S-400 in it will likely feature increased detection ranges against stealthy and non-stealthy aircraft alike. It will also make jamming more problematic, and could mean blinding even a portion of that network is much tougher due to multiple layers of redundant air defenses tied together. This is where cyber warfare and pinpoint strikes based on multiple sources of intelligence can be more effective than jamming or going after the surface-to-air missiles and sensors themselves. For instance, taking out the IADS’ “brains,” locations where the sensor fusion occurs, or striking the system’s communications channels.

As IADS sensor and fusion capabilities advances and as surface-to-air missile ranges increase, it may be necessary to use
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, long-range stealthy aircraft and all the other tactics we mentioned, including standoff jamming, in order to begin to degrade and eventually destroy an advanced air defense system. Additionally, this may be necessary due to other area-denial and anti-access capabilities the enemy possesses.

For instance, if a carrier cannot get within 1,500 miles of an enemy’s shores, its aircraft will be incapable of striking targets. Bases within range of ballisitc missile barrages may also be destroyed.

As the cumulative effects of these “first days of war” standoff strikes take hold, the IADS should begin to buckle, and parts of this deadly air defense killing cocktail can be omitted. For instance, instead of using long-range stealthy aircraft to launch long-range stealthy missiles, stealthy fighters can be used to launch medium-range weaponry as their tankers can operate close enough to enemy airspace in order for them to be effective.

Meanwhile,
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, which frees up stealthy long-range aircraft to begin pushing over or near the enemy’s shores for direct attacks. Systems like
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can be used along with strike assets to push deeper into an enemy’s territory, wiping out its air defenses along the way.

As time goes on, a “sanitized” corridor should emerge over enemy airspace, where less complex tactics can be applied and at higher sortie rates. For instance, fighter strikes can be flown with electronic warfare and wild weasel support, without the need for standoff weaponry, or in some cases, without stealthy aircraft at all.

In other words, it takes a complex cocktail of jamming, surveillance and attack assets, both kinetic and non-kinetic, to take on any advanced integrated air defense system, of which the S-400 could be a part. And even then, you degrade and eventually destroy the enemy’s air defense in a very throughout and methodical manner.

...
size-limit reached; source:
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
A fairly good article, I always liked Foxtrod Alpha articles. They seemed to generally be written by people who know what they are saying, and who are more interested in answering the actual questions rather than using the questions as an excuse to score points.
 
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