S400 in Syria - tactical and strategic implications

This is a thread on the S400 deployment to Syria, which I think we can all agree is a significant development.

The key purpose of this thread is to explore the tactical and strategic implications for all sides on the S400 deployment. I would prefer we focus on the technical and operational side of things, and not get involved in looking at the political and diplomatic implications.

I think before we can consider the tactical and strategic implications, I think it would be useful to establish some key technical capabilities of the S400 system. Some of the questions I would most like answered are:

- What kind of network centric and co-operative engagement capabilities, if any, does the S400 have with other systems and assets the Russians have deployed in Syria? For example, can assets like Su30s, other ground based radar, the Slava class Cruiser (and likely escorts) Russia has deployed network with the S400 and share tracking and targeting data? Can the S400's engagement radar operate in passive mode and rely on the active emissions of other friendly radars to illuminate a target for engagement?

- What kind of scanning and engagement options does the S400 itself have? Does it need to turn on its engagement radar all the time or regularly, or can it rely mainly on its volume search radars and only turn on the "main" set when it decides to actually take a shot? Does the engagement radar have a bank of operating frequencies it can use and switch between to avoid opponents from developing custom EW countermeasures against it?

- How much room does the S400 have to conduct shoot and scoot manoeuvres within the secure confines of the Latakia airport? What is the terrain and security situation like outside the airport perimeter itself? I.E. what are the Russians' options in terms of sending the S400 outside the airport? Obviously given the range of the S400 system and proximity to the boarder, there is no need for it to actually move to be in range, but it might still yield tactical and strategic advantages to be able to change locations and catch opponents unawares.

I think the big question everyone will be looking at is just how effective the Russians could operate their S400 while keeping NATO from being able to learn its secrets and develop custom tailored EW counters against it?

I am not sure what the S-400 can do if Turkey decides to unleash all its forces. Turkey has:

SRBM
>100 J-600T Yıldırım (modified )
>100 MGM-140 ATACMS

Rocket systems
unknown number of T-300 Kasırga (modified S-1B)
unknown number of TOROS rocket system

add to that, almost 240 F-16C/D capable of carrying AGM-88B.

If Turkey wanted to they could easily overwhelm those S-400 systems.

Well, firstly, Turkey would never, and could never used its entire missile and air force to take out one Russian base and SAM battery.

There was never any questions over whether Turkey could take out the Russian Latakia base if it really wanted to. However, if Turkey were to do that, it would be pretty much in open, full scale war with Russia, in which case Russia would be bringing in significant other assets to bear as well. That's an escalation scenario with such an obvious and pointless end game its not really worth discussing. Neither side is crazy or suicidal enough to let things every get that far.

The only engagement scenario realistically on the cards is if the Russians decide to take a shot at a Turkish F16 or two on the boarder as payback for the downing on its Su24, and maybe the Turkish F16 shoots back with some HARMs.

I think the entire discussion should be focused exclusively on that very narrow scenario, rather than a full-scale war.

But even that limited engagement scenario is very unlikely to happen. The S400 deployment is mostly a threat display intended more for show rather than because the Russians really want to use it shoot down some F16s, imo at least.

In the context of the scenario outlined above, the Turks would either have to keep their planes grounded/outside of the range of the S400s, or it could probe and test it to see if they could get any useful data to fine tune their EW.

The Russians, OTOH, would want to get actionable engagement options on Turkish F16s, without risking revealing anything that might aid NATO EW against the S400.

It is in this context that I wish to explore what options and capabilities the Turks and Russians have to be able to achieve their own objective, while trying to frustrate those of its opponent's.

Russia will never use S400 to engage Turkish jets because then Turkey can close Russian movements through Bosphourous as per agreement

Without resupply Russian forces will crumble in Syria, they can not estabilish a air bridge

Best way to take down s400 is to analyse radar emissions and load onto anti radiation missile which Turkish military is doing I am sure NATO and Americans would love that info

Second opinion is to drop in Turkish special forces to take the sit

My understanding of this, is that the primary benefit of deploying the S400 is that its Radar's will now give the Russians a very comprehensive situational awareness, especially around the border regions with Turkey.
This would make the type of ambush that we saw last week very difficult and considerably less possible to deny.

I would say it is this situational awareness; especially along the Turkish borders which are a critical component of the ongoing Russian operations in Syria and of which I will be happy to discuss in the appropriate thread after it re-opens.

That is not to say that the missiles are not important, as that would be ridiculous, and these are the big stick that match the Radar's "soft talk". It is that the shoot down last week has given Russia the justification to install this capacity, which previously would have been attacked by NATO as a provocative. In that sense Putin;s initial reaction last week about treachery were carefully weighed and measured prior to use, as indeed were his other words, which are also connected with this but alas must also await the reopen of the other thread.....

asif iqbal said:

Russia will never use S400 to engage Turkish jets because then Turkey can close Russian movements through Bosphourous as per agreement

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Closing the Bosphourous because the Russians shot down a Turkish F16 would be an extremely excessive, and impractical over-reaction that the world, not just Russia, would not stand for. That is Turkey's nuclear option, and not something to do on a whim.

It is also entirely outside the scope of this discussion and will only lead to pointless bickering and endless and unresolvable political arguments.

Without resupply Russian forces will crumble in Syria, they can not estabilish a air bridge

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They already have through Iran and Iraq.

Best way to take down s400 is to analyse radar emissions and load onto anti radiation missile which Turkish military is doing I am sure NATO and Americans would love that info

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But would the Russians be stupid enough to let Turkey and NATO sample any of the S400's engagement radar emissions?

The only way I can see Turkey and NATO getting a sample of that is if Turkey offered up an F16 as bait to get the Russians to actually shoot at it. And that is assuming the S400 couldn't use co-operative engagement and has to employ its own engagement radar.

Is Turkey willing to run the high risk of loosing an F16 to get those frequencies? Frequencies that may only be one set amongst a bank of many that the Russians could switch between.

So if you tailored your EW against the frequencies the Russians last used, you may be in for a nasty surprise if the Russians suddenly started using a very different set which your EW is totally unprepared for, or worse, compromised by the tailoring against the previous set if the Russians were being extra clever and sneaky in its choice of frequencies.

Second opinion is to drop in Turkish special forces to take the sit

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That would be a suicide mission with near zero chance of success. Those S400 missiles are in the middle of a massive Russian military base filled hundreds if not thousands of Russian marines and special forces combat troops in the middle of an active war zone on a hair trigger.

They have artillery, tanks, SAMs, AAA, attack helicopters, jet fighters and everything in between, with a naval task force on standby nearby. You can be sure that they have cleared and grid referenced the entire perimeter to guard against everything from infiltration to direct assault by a conventional army.

There are simply no good (or more likely any viable) infil and exfil options for such a mission. You will have a hell of a job getting your SpecOps teams in, and unless you take out the whole base, any exfil attempt will simply be a one way suicide run.

To attempt such a mission will almost certainly see your entire special forces teams get slaughtered for no Russian losses before they even get close to the base never mind the S400s.

SampanViking said:

My understanding of this, is that the primary benefit of deploying the S400 is that its Radar's will now give the Russians a very comprehensive situational awareness, especially around the border regions with Turkey.
This would make the type of ambush that we saw last week very difficult and considerably less possible to deny.

I would say it is this situational awareness; especially along the Turkish borders which are a critical component of the ongoing Russian operations in Syria and of which I will be happy to discuss in the appropriate thread after it re-opens.

That is not to say that the missiles are not important, as that would be ridiculous, and these are the big stick that match the Radar's "soft talk". It is that the shoot down last week has given Russia the justification to install this capacity, which previously would have been attacked by NATO as a provocative. In that sense Putin;s initial reaction last week about treachery were carefully weighed and measured prior to use, as indeed were his other words, which are also connected with this but alas must also await the reopen of the other thread.....

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The Latakia air base is only 30 miles from the Turkish boarder.

Surely you don't need S400 calibre radars to get a very detailed and comprehensive situation awareness of the Turkish boarder regions when your main base of operations is so close? Especially since Russia has been conduction near non-stop air operations, in which case airborne fighter radar on their Su30s and Su34s should give a very detailed and accurate picture of what is going on along the boarder, which should be significantly better than any ground based radar if for nothing else that the elimination of radar horizon.

I think the ambush was possible not because they Russians couldn't see the F16s, but rather they thought it was a routine intercept/patrol and did not imagine the Turks would actually open fire.

plawolf said:

The Latakia air base is only 30 miles from the Turkish boarder.

Surely you don't need S400 calibre radars to get a very detailed and comprehensive situation awareness of the Turkish boarder regions when your main base of operations is so close? Especially since Russia has been conduction near non-stop air operations, in which case airborne fighter radar on their Su30s and Su34s should give a very detailed and accurate picture of what is going on along the boarder, which should be significantly better than any ground based radar if for nothing else that the elimination of radar horizon.

I think the ambush was possible not because they Russians couldn't see the F16s, but rather they thought it was a routine intercept/patrol and did not imagine the Turks would actually open fire.

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The nearest point of the Turkish border may be only 30 miles away, but it seems Russia has a keen interest in events along it from the Med to Kobane, which by reckoning is the best part of 300 miles long.

I am sure that Flankers can provide very good intel, but even these cannot be in the air 24/7 or even have nothing else better to do. The S-400 is on 24/7 - sits where it sits and does what it does. that I think is the difference. It will also provide the central/control hub from which all other systems and monitors can subordinate too.

FORBIDDEN TOPICS:

• No "what if" discussion about war, particularly nuclear war, between China and other nations, or between any nations.

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source is local: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/sd-forum-rules-of-behavior.t7851/
LOL

Guys, this is getting into that what if danger zone. The S400 were brought in to give the Russians freedom of operation. It ensures that the Russians have a controlling interest in the operations of other foreign states and keeps them from directly supporting anti-Assad factions and striking Syrian regime forces and there allies.