Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)
- Thread starter A Bar Brother
- Start date
To admit and even we are surely not best friend due to our different perceptions and approach on how to analyse and evaluate information and sources, here I agree with B787; Dave Majumdar is a very special kind of analyst (?), roughly in the same league as David Axe ... at least IMO.
Overall this report sums up quite nicely what we all know since some time ... but it's way he tells the story.
Deino
Brumby
Major
There seems to be some form of developing view that the PAKFA will be inducted into operational status in 2017. Whilst I am sceptical about the meaning of the term "operational", it is hard to put meaning to it because it is a highly subjective term. What I am interested in and probably like some of you is to understand in reality what is the contextual status of this project in view of the lack of transparency and specifics being made available publicly regardless of this "operational" narrative.
I have put together an analysis using as a benchmark a RAND study I came across recently regarding development testing required of new aircraft. Typically for a fourth generation aircraft, the development testing in terms of flight hours are between close to 3,000 hours to 5,000 flight hours.
I would argue that for a fifth generation program, the required flight hours would be even much more because of the complexities associated with a fifth generation platform.
For example,
In the case of the PAKFA program, based on publicly known information the development testing as of the fall of 2015 can be summarised as :
Even against a very conservative figure of 5000 flight hours required for development testing, the PAKFA program as of the fall of 2015 has done only about 14 % of what would constitute as requirement per RAND study to complete development testing. In contrast, the F-35 as of 4th Qtr 2015 had completed 42,000 hours of flight testing and even on the back of this the F-35A would not be projected to achieve IOC for another year from that date.
It should also be noted that the average 3.35 flight hours per aircraft month achieved against an average of at least 10 hours is indicative that the PAKFA program is encountering significant technical difficulties.
I also did a similar study of the J-20 program but will not disclose it as any disclosure would be perceived as program bashing regardless of the intend.
I have put together an analysis using as a benchmark a RAND study I came across recently regarding development testing required of new aircraft. Typically for a fourth generation aircraft, the development testing in terms of flight hours are between close to 3,000 hours to 5,000 flight hours.
I would argue that for a fifth generation program, the required flight hours would be even much more because of the complexities associated with a fifth generation platform.
For example,
In the case of the PAKFA program, based on publicly known information the development testing as of the fall of 2015 can be summarised as :
Even against a very conservative figure of 5000 flight hours required for development testing, the PAKFA program as of the fall of 2015 has done only about 14 % of what would constitute as requirement per RAND study to complete development testing. In contrast, the F-35 as of 4th Qtr 2015 had completed 42,000 hours of flight testing and even on the back of this the F-35A would not be projected to achieve IOC for another year from that date.
It should also be noted that the average 3.35 flight hours per aircraft month achieved against an average of at least 10 hours is indicative that the PAKFA program is encountering significant technical difficulties.
I also did a similar study of the J-20 program but will not disclose it as any disclosure would be perceived as program bashing regardless of the intend.
Jura The idiot
General
... as in today's announcement of the Russian Ministry of Defense "Acquisition Chief"
who said in 2018 PAKFAs from the serial production should start to be delivered (the contract should be signed in 2017)
052 picture from May 2016
Heh! Heh! Heh!, the fact that we are still "ooohhhing and aaaahhhiing" 051 and 052 is ample evidence that this program has rebuilt, and returned them to full flight status. It is also evidence of how seriously this program was hurt by those structural issues and the fire which destroyed 055.
So the PAK-FA has obviously been moved back to the front burner, and that's good, but it is lagging where is should/could have been??? while that is not catastrophic, much needs to be done to assure the Indians that FGFA will be a viable choice, and that they need to be "back on board".
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
wait What?
So the Russians are building the successor to the F302?