Continuing discussion from the US Military thread in a more appropriate venue.
Those US sub construction numbers with two shipyards are just pathetic. 1.5 subs a year on average. The Russians with a single shipyard are putting one SSGN and one SSBN into the water each year.
Submarine production has indeed been a relative bright spot for the Russian Navy, but also potentially a transitory one. The current impressive launch/delivery cadence reflects boats laid down throughout the 2009-2017 period. Since that time, relatively few new nuclear boats have been laid down: two 885Ms and two 955As in the last eight years, down from six 885Ms and five 955As in the nine years preceding. That will soon translate to a reduction in deliveries. It's not clear to me what is going on with the 09851 Poseidon boats, but in any case it does not materially change the relative balance between the two periods. Given the cascading consequences of the conflict in Ukraine for budget priorities, it remains to be seen how committed Russia is to its ongoing submarine renaissance.
The Russians will be building at least a dozen each of the Borei and Yasen. So they will lay down two more Borei and three more Yasen.
There is talk of four Poseidon drone carrier submarines.
Putin also announced the Lada diesel submarines would become serial built boats. So there will be more orders than the current four.
The question is about the Husky and the other next generation submarine projects like Arcturus.
The Russian Navy wants the Husky to be a small nuclear attack submarine to replace the Victor III but the design bureaus claim such a submarine won't have the required level of stealth to be survivable.
I'm sure there will be more boats, I'm not suggesting that Russia is about to abandon its nuclear submarine programs, just that we can't assume that the fairly impressive delivery cadence we've seen in recent years will actually be maintained going forward. Indeed we can be confident that, at least for a period beginning late 2020s, it won't be maintained. Just where the longer-term trends will settle remains to be seen.
It depends on if the Husky is indeed a small boat and the Russians mass produce it or not.
Right now the Russians aren't producing enough submarines to replace their still in service old attack subs let alone have the numbers they had in the Cold War.
A smaller boat could be built outside Sevmash. At Admiralty Shipyards and Krasnoye Sormovo for example.
It may have been desirable to slow the rate of new orders for a few years as the industrial base became saturated, akin to the debates in the United States about the merits of creating an ever-larger submarine production backlog by continuing to procure new boats at rates faster than they are being delivered, but I think the slowdown in procurement has gone on too long now for that to be the full story. Budgetary reallocations arising as a consequence of the conflict in Ukraine are a plausible explanation for why we haven't seen more nuclear submarines laid down in recent years. As you say, the remaining boats from the late Cold War period are not getting any younger, so there is no obvious service-level explanation for why demand would have slackened either. I think a reasonable long-term objective for the Russian Navy and SIB would be lay down, launch and deliver one nuclear submarine per year in order to maintain an inventory of ~30-35 nuclear submarines of all types: SSNs, SSGNs, SSBNs and special mission boats.
We are informed that the potential for submarine quieting is fundamentally constrained by the hull diameter of the submarine. A smaller, less expensive submarine that nonetheless employs first-rate quieting measures therefore implies a relatively short and fat hull form, probably shorter than is hydrodynamically optimal. One route to achieving such a submarine, therefore, is to reduce its speed, akin to the American "Fat Albert" Fast Attack Submarine design, with a notional top speed of 27-knots, that was briefly explored in the late 1970s as an alternative or complement to Rickover's preferred SSN-688 design.