The_Zergling
Junior Member
This is what I got out of it with online translation (slightly edited by me for grammar and words that didn't get translated)... a decent one, I'd say. I skipped the introduction and focused on the area talking about Taiwan. My notes are in red.
PEACE REUNION
The further existence of Taiwan as de facto independent state becomes intolerant for Beijing. China cannot apply for a role of a superstate if it is not capable to restore the sovereignty above a small rebellious province.
The peaceful unification of the island state, certainly, is more favourable to the Peoples Republic of China. It will instantly provide significant economic, financial, technological, and military power to to China, as well as growth in international prestige.
The plan of nonviolent actions concerning Taiwan is realized by Beijing in several directions. First, as "bait" the principle " one country - two systems ", with success used in case of with Hong Kong is kept. The PRC promises to apply it to Taiwan. Secondly, the Communist Party of China actively influences politics on island the island via the KMT (Taiwan's current opposition party, China-leaning). The KMT historically has considered itself the legitimate authority for "all China" and opposes independence for Taiwan. Certainly, today the KMT does not have opportunity to carry this out, but at the least it aspires to return to holding the reins of government in Taipei.
China uses a financial resource-propaganda of a handheld computer, but simultaneously turns to "the fifth column" Beijing on island. In particular, deputies from KMT in the Taiwan parliament have blocked arms sales from the United States for quite some time.
Thirdly, the Peoples Republic of China several years ago has opened access to its economy, including capital from the ROC. Taiwan's investments in the various enterprises of continental China have exceeded 100 billion dollars and has made the majority of the largest businessmen of the island hostages of policy of Beijing. Taiwan economically is actually already an integral part of the Peoples Republic of China. Over 70% of all investments and almost 40% of export of island business go here; more than 50% of the hi-tech Taiwanese goods are really made in "Communist" China.
Until recently, the People's liberation army of China had no opportunity for capture of Taiwan since its military - though possessing significant quantitative superiority - was inferior on almost on all quality indicators. But the technological gap has closed, and even the out-of-date equipment still gives the PRC an overwhelming advantage ("effect of weight" taking up defensive resources)
China has reached the absolute superiority in a class of heavy fighters and fighters-bombers: it now has almost three hundred J-11s and J-12s (Su-27 and Su-30). China has modern fighters such as the J-10 and new updates for machines of an older generation - up to 1000 J-7s and J-8s. In resistance, Taiwan can field fighters such as the F-16, "Мirage-2000" and "IDF" (all adding up to the little more than 300 units). If older aircraft are considered then the superiority of the PRC over Taiwan is more than tenfold. Beijing has reached a significant advantage regarding modern diesel submarines (12 constructed in Russia in 1998-2006 of submarines of projects 877 and 636). And on the general number of submarines the PLAN surpasses ROCN 15 times.
Taipei for today has no equivalent to the Russian-built Chinese destroyers of the project 956 and means of protection from "Mosquito" with which they are armed. Until recently a weak place of Navies China was antiaircraft defense, however a situation has changed, after the construction of two destroyers of the project 052С, armed ЗРК "Reef" (sea variant С-300).
At the same time the parliament of Taiwan blocks purchase in USA ЭМ of type "Arleigh Burke" with system "Aegis", i.e. here again China has the advantage. As a whole China surpasses Taiwan by 3 times in destroyers, in 2 times - in quantity of frigates, in 5 times - the quantity of fighting boats (including in 1.5 times - on rocket boats). Sharply increasing landing opportunities for China (both on the sea, and in air).
At the same time China has many more resources than the island state; it can buy and develop technology and much faster rates. In addition to the forementioned weaponary, the PRC has hundreds of operational tactical missiles aimed at Taiwan which can practically destroy the military and civil infrastructure of the island without reprisal. Without the help of Washington the situation becomes more and more problematic for Taipei.
10 years ago the USA was theoretically capable of providing protection or Taiwan against China at a nearly loss-free rate. Certain both today and in the near future, the American naval and air forces can prevent the PRC from invading the island, but with inevitable heavy losses. Thus the probability of armed participation on the part of the USA is sharpy reduced, and in view of the Iraq fiasco and problems aggravated in connection with it, claims of easy military success will be viewed skeptically and illusionary. If the management and population of Taiwan is convinced that Washington is not prepared to support the island militarily in an invasion, then capitulation from Taipei in front of Beijing even before physical battles is almost inevitable.
It is possible to assume that the critical period will be the autumn of 2008. The PRC will try to lead the Olympic Games in Beijing in all aspects, in which China will try to assume the new image of a new superstate. Then the presidential elections in the USA in which the present Republican administration will very likely be defeated (a reason for this would be overly aggressive foreign policy), and in general, war tends to be inconvenient for elections, especially one with China.
This would be the ideal situation for Beijing to present Taipei with an ultimatum demanding immediate unification. The probability is very high that it will be "one that is impossible to refuse". China will develop full-scale information-psychological warfare against the island, combining intimidation with the intrusion of missiles hitting it, and a full sea and air blockade. (This is a serious threat, considering Taiwan's high dependence on imports - in particular, on foodstuffs 90% and oil 100%) Taiwan will also be wooed with the advertising appeal of a new economic, political, military, and sports superstate. It is quite probable by that moment the KMT will control both the executive and legislative branch on the island, thus increasing the chances of capitulation.
That's all the time I have for now, so far it doesn't really say anything I didn't already know...
PEACE REUNION
The further existence of Taiwan as de facto independent state becomes intolerant for Beijing. China cannot apply for a role of a superstate if it is not capable to restore the sovereignty above a small rebellious province.
The peaceful unification of the island state, certainly, is more favourable to the Peoples Republic of China. It will instantly provide significant economic, financial, technological, and military power to to China, as well as growth in international prestige.
The plan of nonviolent actions concerning Taiwan is realized by Beijing in several directions. First, as "bait" the principle " one country - two systems ", with success used in case of with Hong Kong is kept. The PRC promises to apply it to Taiwan. Secondly, the Communist Party of China actively influences politics on island the island via the KMT (Taiwan's current opposition party, China-leaning). The KMT historically has considered itself the legitimate authority for "all China" and opposes independence for Taiwan. Certainly, today the KMT does not have opportunity to carry this out, but at the least it aspires to return to holding the reins of government in Taipei.
China uses a financial resource-propaganda of a handheld computer, but simultaneously turns to "the fifth column" Beijing on island. In particular, deputies from KMT in the Taiwan parliament have blocked arms sales from the United States for quite some time.
Thirdly, the Peoples Republic of China several years ago has opened access to its economy, including capital from the ROC. Taiwan's investments in the various enterprises of continental China have exceeded 100 billion dollars and has made the majority of the largest businessmen of the island hostages of policy of Beijing. Taiwan economically is actually already an integral part of the Peoples Republic of China. Over 70% of all investments and almost 40% of export of island business go here; more than 50% of the hi-tech Taiwanese goods are really made in "Communist" China.
Until recently, the People's liberation army of China had no opportunity for capture of Taiwan since its military - though possessing significant quantitative superiority - was inferior on almost on all quality indicators. But the technological gap has closed, and even the out-of-date equipment still gives the PRC an overwhelming advantage ("effect of weight" taking up defensive resources)
China has reached the absolute superiority in a class of heavy fighters and fighters-bombers: it now has almost three hundred J-11s and J-12s (Su-27 and Su-30). China has modern fighters such as the J-10 and new updates for machines of an older generation - up to 1000 J-7s and J-8s. In resistance, Taiwan can field fighters such as the F-16, "Мirage-2000" and "IDF" (all adding up to the little more than 300 units). If older aircraft are considered then the superiority of the PRC over Taiwan is more than tenfold. Beijing has reached a significant advantage regarding modern diesel submarines (12 constructed in Russia in 1998-2006 of submarines of projects 877 and 636). And on the general number of submarines the PLAN surpasses ROCN 15 times.
Taipei for today has no equivalent to the Russian-built Chinese destroyers of the project 956 and means of protection from "Mosquito" with which they are armed. Until recently a weak place of Navies China was antiaircraft defense, however a situation has changed, after the construction of two destroyers of the project 052С, armed ЗРК "Reef" (sea variant С-300).
At the same time the parliament of Taiwan blocks purchase in USA ЭМ of type "Arleigh Burke" with system "Aegis", i.e. here again China has the advantage. As a whole China surpasses Taiwan by 3 times in destroyers, in 2 times - in quantity of frigates, in 5 times - the quantity of fighting boats (including in 1.5 times - on rocket boats). Sharply increasing landing opportunities for China (both on the sea, and in air).
At the same time China has many more resources than the island state; it can buy and develop technology and much faster rates. In addition to the forementioned weaponary, the PRC has hundreds of operational tactical missiles aimed at Taiwan which can practically destroy the military and civil infrastructure of the island without reprisal. Without the help of Washington the situation becomes more and more problematic for Taipei.
10 years ago the USA was theoretically capable of providing protection or Taiwan against China at a nearly loss-free rate. Certain both today and in the near future, the American naval and air forces can prevent the PRC from invading the island, but with inevitable heavy losses. Thus the probability of armed participation on the part of the USA is sharpy reduced, and in view of the Iraq fiasco and problems aggravated in connection with it, claims of easy military success will be viewed skeptically and illusionary. If the management and population of Taiwan is convinced that Washington is not prepared to support the island militarily in an invasion, then capitulation from Taipei in front of Beijing even before physical battles is almost inevitable.
It is possible to assume that the critical period will be the autumn of 2008. The PRC will try to lead the Olympic Games in Beijing in all aspects, in which China will try to assume the new image of a new superstate. Then the presidential elections in the USA in which the present Republican administration will very likely be defeated (a reason for this would be overly aggressive foreign policy), and in general, war tends to be inconvenient for elections, especially one with China.
This would be the ideal situation for Beijing to present Taipei with an ultimatum demanding immediate unification. The probability is very high that it will be "one that is impossible to refuse". China will develop full-scale information-psychological warfare against the island, combining intimidation with the intrusion of missiles hitting it, and a full sea and air blockade. (This is a serious threat, considering Taiwan's high dependence on imports - in particular, on foodstuffs 90% and oil 100%) Taiwan will also be wooed with the advertising appeal of a new economic, political, military, and sports superstate. It is quite probable by that moment the KMT will control both the executive and legislative branch on the island, thus increasing the chances of capitulation.
That's all the time I have for now, so far it doesn't really say anything I didn't already know...