Russian fleet: the way to continentalization
While the full realization of the naval component of the 2011-2020 armament plane seems a long time compromised, many questions already surrounding the challenges of the next arming plan. What should expect the Russian fleet?
New determinants
Plans weapons being developed every 5 years and over a period of ten years, the new weapons of the plan would be implemented from 2016 for a period of up to 2025 (the last for the period 2011-2020). However, no plans have been announced, and this should not be the case before 2018, election year in Russia (presidential election), for a period extending to 2025 or beyond. This shift would be of a struggle between the one hand power structures, and the central bankers of the Russian state, on the other hand, which has forced the Kremlin to "kick for touch", and push the plug making.
The conditions prevailing at the time of the development of the 2011-2020 armament plan (the late 2000s) no longer exist: the price of a barrel of crude now stands painfully around $ 50, and economic growth would be at best 1% or 2% in the coming years. The budget of the Russian defense, continuously expanding (in absolute value) throughout the 2000s, had its first budget cuts in 2015, and it should be the same until 2019: the Russian Ministry of Finance has already proposed to reduce defense spending by 6% over the period 2017-2019 compared to the 2016 budget (itself already reduced by 5%). Relations with the West are permanently damaged from the Ukrainian crisis, ruling out any military-technical cooperation in the medium-term high-technologies. In addition, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has terminated its cooperation with the Russian defense industry, depriving Russia of a number of key technologies for the implementation of the 2011-2020 program, including field of shipbuilding. These are conditions that should determine the development of the next armament plan, even if the markers should be applied to the economic aspects. The heyday of the 2000s is over, and the economic pressure causes power struggles within the political and military elite and industrial ..
The mirage goals
The appointment of the former commander of the fleet, Admiral Viktor Chirkov, the Chief Advisor position near President OSK - Russian consortium for shipbuilding - means that the Kremlin wants to limit the damage vis- a-vis the implementation of the 2011-2020 naval component, and especially today give "good habits" to OSK for the realization of the next arming plan. The Russian president also said - about annunciator - that 2020 will correspond to a peak for deliveries of new equipment in the weapons program.
The Russian Navy will not, at maturity of the plan, eight new Borei SSBNs of the project, much less 7 SSGN of Yasen project, let alone the frigates of Project 22350. Some units are already admitted to active service, d more will be, but the objectives will not be met. Unlike OAK - Russian consortium for the aircraft industry - the success of OSK remains very mixed, as evidenced by the number of resignations and replacements in the leadership of this structure in recent years. However, if the industry share some responsibility in the repeated delays in some programs, they are not responsible for everything, and according to experts, it would still fifteen years the Russian naval industrial base to recover the period black 1990s and irregular funding naval programs that still characterized part of the 2000s Today, R & D remains the poor relation of the budget of the Russian defense: it accounted for 3.5% of the 2013 budget, and since she was reduced to a trickle.
Boiling projects related to the project of building a blue water fleet also explains the will power to OSK as effective tool than is OAK for air. If the chances of the next arming plane integrate the construction of an aircraft carrier are thin (which could be the case the next shot), it is however possible to see the laying of the keel of the future of new destroyer generation (the Lider) as well as large amphibious ships (or Priboi Lavina). Beyond the triple economic, industrial and technological challenge that would represent the start of construction of these offshore vessels for Russia, the question is whether they would respond to a need expressed by the Russian Navy.
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