Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Scratch said:

The would still leave controll over major movement in the coutry with the Russians. And there are also the forces in Poti that seem to prepare for a longer stay. By controlling the main highway at few points and perhaps even the big port city, Russia would still be in controll of public life in Georgia even with just a small amount of actuall territory occupied.

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That is precisely my point, it looks like the Russians are trying to turn Georgia into Palestine -- a western part ("Gaza Strip") and an eastern part ("West Bank").

utelore said:

In about 4 months Georgia according to info could then launch a counter offensive. Tiblisi will have multi defensive belts and major rear area actions by georgian Special forces augmenting a insurgency. CIA SAG on the ground NOW.

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If the Russians still control the whole country at the time, no amount of infantry gear is going to help the Georgian capital from a quick decapitation. Even giving them Abrams is not going to change anything. They are simply surrounded.

Finn McCool said:

The Western side in this conflict is getting ready for round two, whether that be a standoff or more hot war.

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There won't be a Georgian counterattack. They are crippled -- physically, economically and MOST IMPORTANTLY they have no moral left. The army (indeed the country) has ceased to function except in the most rudimentary way. If hypothetically there will be a counterattack, it would need US boots on the ground.

utelore said:

The military is now full of war hawks after 8 years of conservative rule and believe it or not with end strength for the army now approaching 600,000 and the Marines 200,000 they believe they can fight and win a major conventional war and 2 COIN conflicts. This is just what my buds are saying.

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Sigh.... are they out of their mind? The US actually has to borrow money from China to do this sort of thing.

utelore said:

1. start no fly zone over Georgia, Russia would get knocked out of the sky in two days. Lets be reasonable on this ,Russia cannot fight the U.S in a Air war over Georgia and Russia would not be that nuts to start shooting nukes.

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Yes, Russian can win an air war over Georgia. It can sortie much more aircraft in the theater (think 10-1 advantage for Russia) and its ground forces can protect themselves with SAMs and even ballistic missile (conventional) against airbases, and there aren't many bases the US can fly from. Nor can it use carriers in that theater.

utelore said:

2. 10,000 82nd airborne, Rangers, special forces, and Marines take positions in Georgia. C-5 transport Abrams and Bradley, strykers from Army ready brigades direct to Tiblisi.

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LOL. Ground forces are not US's strong suit, and something like this would end up looking like Napoleon or Germany's adventures around Russia.

Look guys, here is the deal...white house and GOP dont want Obama in the white house. Best way to do that is threw conflict of international nature. I would not be surprised if "false flag" tactics are used but Russia is walking into a conservative hawks jaws if it even thinks of arms embargo.

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Not in front of a war and deficit fatigued American public, no you don't. The last thing you need is another war, spending money that you don't have, concentrating on foreign problems instead of critical local issues such as the mortgage and foreclosure crisis. If the Republicans are smart, they won't do this; the blow back can cost them the White House.

1. start no fly zone over Georgia, Russia would get knocked out of the sky in two days. Lets be reasonable on this ,Russia cannot fight the U.S in a Air war over Georgia and Russia would not be that nuts to start shooting nukes.

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Who are you trying to kid? Without F-22s or F-35, the air war will be a very bloody affair for both sides. Of course, since the US has more planes and better training it could win in the end, but it would be through attrition only.

And that is assuming the US pulls air assets from other theaters.

Roger604 said:

There won't be a Georgian counterattack. They are crippled -- physically, economically and MOST IMPORTANTLY they have no moral left. The army (indeed the country) has ceased to function except in the most rudimentary way. If hypothetically there will be a counterattack, it would need US boots on the ground.

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I think I didn't make myself clear. I was not thinking of a Georgian counterattack, certainly not in the short-term. I was more thinking of possible further war a long way down the road, like a few years. Or perhaps, in the shorter term, guerilla attacks on possible Russian occupying forces. But yes the Georgian army is not capable of offensive operations at this point.

I agree with you that a war with Russia would be absolutely insane at this point. It would be the "straw that broke the camel's back" (although it wouldn't be a straw, more of a concrete pillar) and would probably lead to "The fall of the the American Empire". A war with Russia would mean, undoubtedly, that the years 2001-2010 will be looked back on as the years where the United States lost its global primacy. Militarily we cannot sustain it, economically we cannot sustain it, politically there is no will for it.

As for enforcing a "no fly zone" over Georgia, that's not really a viable option at this point unless the US can get full Turkish cooperation with basing, etc. and move A LOT of airplanes, including F-22s into place. We would be facing the entire Russian Air Force in its own backyard. I know that the USAF is good, the best by far. But logistics are logistics. And politics are politics. Turkey won't allow it. We can't win that fight, at least not without crippling losses. Not when you're fighting the entire Russian Air Force on the other side of the world from your own logistical centers out of two or three bases.

Military intervention in Georgia would be incredibly foolish. That's why I won't put it past the Bush Administration .

I don't expect the U.S. or Georgia to actually launch an attack now. However, I expect Georgia will become a heavily militarized country with a huge influx of Western weaponry and possibly large NATO/U.S. bases there to offset Russian military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. NATO membership for Georgia will add another aspect to this as it would reinforce Georgia's status as a frontline country in a future war with Russia.

Guys we are looking at the hypothetical becoming real very quick, That is why a U.S intervention for both internal and Geopolitical is not out of the question compounded by the big bear waking up on the wrong side of the bed, you simply have all the ingredients for a major war...we are not much different than the way we were in WW2 as far as the human condition.

AS for air power the rumor of the U.S using the "sky clearer" B-2 firing 20 upgraded Phoenix missiles that do not require the F-14 radar with 100 mile range and can be fired dumb most likely is in the U.S arsenal. The Russians do not have a answer for the B-2 dropping 80 independently targeted 500 lb JDAM not to mention cruise missiles.

U.S F-22 deployed out of Kurdistan would have no problem enforcing a no fly zone over Georgia. DoD rumor mill has it that U.S could take down most russian airbases and have about 90% air supremacy over south russian trans-caucuses In 14 days.

Russia is simply flying super agile 80's eara planes with 70's missile techolgy intergrated into those systems. Russia is laking in a major way in the combination of stealth and BVR systems. We know this for a fact.

1. russian air interceptor Mig-31 which blast away with huge radars for which U.S passive systems to detect and destroy. You can see the nuts and bolts holding it together.

2. Su-27 very agile ok radar but most pilots like using its FLIR air to air device for somewhat long range IR missiles. again not the greatest BVR

3. Mig-29 again agile and uses FLIR with IR and lower grade BVR missiles compared to the U.S

4. Average russian pilot is getting maybe 40 hours of flight time with the exception of a few elite units. NOT versed in the Hi-Tech war they would get hit with such as stealth and ECM.

In closing the Tempo of U.S cruise missiles, stealth, and high degree of air to air BVR lethality is something the Russians would have no concept in dealing with over Georgia theater of operations. I am by no means saying F-15s could operate over Moscow but simply in the Georgia AO and 100 miles north.

utelore, your thought process and beliefs mirrors those of the Georgian president. By reading what you have to say, especially about America's military infallibility and commitment to Georgia, I think are all getting a sense of how this conflict started. Not a slight at all, just bringing up an interesting observation.

If you are just looking at this from a military point of view, possibilities of escalations aside, what makes you think America can defeat Russian forces from the air alone, after failing to do so against Serbian forces after months of bombing? Or are you actually thinking that the US is going to exert its airpower over Russian airspace and bomb targets in Russia? That would be extremely silly, and I think you and I both know that the US would not do it.

Norfolk said:

A couple of maps of maps (in Russian) of how things unfolded in Georgia:

1. The military

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in South Ossetia on 15 August. It shows the (general) positions on that day of both the Russians as well as the Georgians on that day, plus the Russian invasion route into Tskinvali (in red arrows). Note especially the Georgian position just north of T-town through which red arrows pass marking the Russian invasion route from the Roksi Tunnel (not shown); this area is wooded mountains.

2. An overall

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map (up to 18 August).

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Lots of speculation on this thread...some of it pretty wild.

But, in addition to the ongoing C-17 and C-130 airlift (which is also inserting military assessment teams into Georgia), here's one major thing the US is actually doing and has announced internationally and to the Russians.

In anticipation of the Russian withdrawal that Russian President Medvedev assured the world on August 19th would take place by Friday, August 22nd, and having received permission from the Turkish government to transit the Bospuros and Dardanelles, the United States announced that it would have three of its military vessels in the Black Sea of the coast of Georgia to perform humanitairan support for the people of Georgia in the next few days. The guided missile destroyer, USS McFaul, the Command and Control Ship, and flagship of the US 6th fleet, the USS Mount Whitney, and the US Coast Guard, high endurance cutter, USCGC Dallas, will all be in place in that time frame.

The USS McFaul is a front line, major US Navy combatant. An AEGIS Destroyer, she is very good at anti-sub work, anti-surface work, and outstanding at anti-air defense. She's been loaded with humanitarian supplies, and will be the first ship to arrive, probably Friday, th 22nd, or Saturday, the 23rd. Although she is there to help with humanitarian needs, there can be no mistake that she is also a sign of US resolve to assist Georgia.


The USS Mt. Whitney, is a large Command and Control ship, with room for tons of humanitarian supplies of all types and the capability to make over 100,000 gallons of fresh water a day, should arrive early next week, the week of August 17th..

As a Command Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) vessel, and as the flag ship of the US 6th fleet, she is a very critical asset to the US Navy. Considered by some to be the most sophisticated C41 ship ever commissioned, Mount Whitney incorporates various elements of the most advanced C4I equipment on earth and gives the embarked Joint Task Force Commander the capability to effectively command all units in the Joint Task Force. Her presence will provide tremendous humanitarian relief, but will also allow the US to monitor communications in the area and gather lots of intelligence.


The USCGC Dallas (WHEC-716) is a Hamilton class, high endurace cutter of the US Coast guard. All twelve of these vessels, including the Dallas, are outstanding at marittime interdiction, port security, and Search and Rescue missions. She had been in Greece on a port call when called to this duty and should allow over the weekend off of Georgia, following the USS McFaul.


Along with Canadian and Polish vessels which are also in transit to Georgia, this task force will be well equipped to provide tremendous Humanitarian support to the people of Georgia, but will also be very capable of defending itself if it ever became necessary.

I think Russia takes the possibility of a round two quite seriously and seem to be getting their retaliation in first!

This article regarding Syria could well be just a hors durve to the main course.



The concept of a US build up is problematic as Russia will not simply sit and watch as America assembles a task force on its doorstep, but simply act and throttle it at birth.

Further; as others have mentioned, there would be little regional support from Turkey or Azerbyjan, which means no regional Air Bases.

The next big event to watch though will br the SCO Heads of State Summit in Dushanbe starting 28th August. With the Olympics finished, we may get our first view of China’s position both on Georgia and with the fall of its friend Musharref.

I would expect significant Russian pressure to close all remaining US facilities in Kyrgyzstan. It is to be seen how far statements go in respect of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

The overall point is that once a big player from outside seeks to insinuate themselves overtly into a local problem, then that problem is highly likely to spread to all the other local problems in the region very quickly.

Jeff Head said:

Lots of speculation on this thread...some of it pretty wild.

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The wild speculation here is only coming from one particular poster.

I doubt the Russian Black sea fleet will get in the way of this US "humanitarian" mission. Both sides know theres no need to escalate the situation. It will be tense, perhaps some gun pointing as well...but definitely no trigger pulling.