Russia Economy Thread

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia generally has mid-high economic growth since Putin took over in 2000. Russia's GDP dropped in 2008, due to the global recession, but bounced back. Then it suffered another setback in 2014, due to sanctions after it annexed Crimea. It had another major crisis during Covid and 2022 due to sanctions for... obvious reasons.
Yes there was the global recession in 2008 which caused imports of raw materials to drop due to lower demand for finished products in the West. Then there were the lockdowns and the the oil price war with the Saudis.
You could argue that the sanctions in 2014 had limited impact on the Russian economy. The major impact was on Arctic oil drilling. But the market had an oil glut in the 2010s as it was. And increased production wouldn't have helped things.

Remarkably, Russia grew 3+% in 2023. What this tells us, is that generally speaking, Russia is actually very well managed. In fact, Russia would probably be in a very, very good position if it wasn't constantly jerked around by its Western "partners." Of course, I'm not saying that everything Russia does is perfect... but relative to some of its peers it doesn't do bad at all.
Russia's main issue right now is lack of automation in their industrial and service sectors. They have a huge labor shortage. But you should expect further economic growth as factories which closed down after Western 2022 sanctions begin operating again and new factories are built to replace imports. I expect Russian economic growth to remain robust at least until 2026.

If Russia decoupled from the West in 2008 instead of only starting to in 2014... it probably could've been as large as Germany.
Russia will likely surpass Germany in terms of trade volume with China starting this year. And right now Germany, South Korea, and Japan are direct economic competitors to China. As China's industrial economic complexity continues to improve they are starting to outmuscle these countries in the chemical industry, ICs, vehicle production, shipbuilding, etc. You can expect these countries to reply with tariffs on Chinese product imports as the Chinese economy goes up the economic ladder. Russia will continue to be a growing market for China because they simply don't have enough manpower to produce all the products they need and their market lacks economies of scale in production compared with China. As a raw materials exporter to China, Russia will still manage to balance its trade anyway, which is simply not true for most Western industrial economies.

As for Russian GDP vs German GDP, you just cannot rely on GDP in USD (nominal) numbers. Russia has a larger economy than Germany as it is and its economy is overall closer to that of Japan. Just compare Russia and Germany economically. Where is this supposed higher German GDP manifesting itself? The Germans don't make their own advanced jet engines, their aircraft manufacturing is just assembly for Airbus, their own IC sector isn't significantly better than the Russian one if you exclude foreign factories operating in German soil, their software sector isn't significantly better than the Russian one either. Except for a couple bright spots like machine tools and automobiles there is little they excel at. Even then with access being cut to some of their largest machine tool markets in Russia and possibly China in the future it is hard to think they will continue having a radiant future in those sectors either. Especially since they have been falling behind in EV tech.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member

The West decided to kick Russian metals out of the London and New York metal exchanges.
I think this one chart from the video above summarizes the stupidity of this move quite well.

1713364213081.png

Russia will move their gargantuan commodities sales to the Shanghai metals exchange and further increase the price differential between Western and Chinese industry.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs

The West decided to kick Russian metals out of the London and New York metal exchanges.
I think this one chart from the video above summarizes the stupidity of this move quite well.

View attachment 128228

Russia will move their gargantuan commodities sales to the Shanghai metals exchange and further increase the price differential between Western and Chinese industry.
The original from Bloomberg
1713364947375.png
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member

The West decided to kick Russian metals out of the London and New York metal exchanges.
I think this one chart from the video above summarizes the stupidity of this move quite well.

View attachment 128228

Russia will move their gargantuan commodities sales to the Shanghai metals exchange and further increase the price differential between Western and Chinese industry.



I don't see any rationale in this, this just shows how dumb of a system Western liberal democracy is where some kind of retards always lead.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
The original from Bloomberg
View attachment 128229

Remember when they enacted the sanctions on Russian Nickel which pushed the Nickel prices sky high, and resulted in that bizarre scenario where the Chinese nickel tycoon held all the short positions was deep underwater, yet simultaneously commanded the largest Nickel reserves which then became super valuable? Sanctions broke capitalism that day for sure, lol

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Very good insight and post.

I dont think people give Putin enough credit on how he has been able to steer the Russian economy successfully through multiple sanctions, and a war.

Reminds me of the saying "amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics" but maybe we can add that ultimate winners talk about economy.
Putin got the country that already went through reforms and they did discover many things earlier like Dubai Air show but there are things they are wise enough not too much discuss as it can impact Soft Power of Gulf Arabs because they need to maintain image of treating billions of people equally and certainly not publish accurate trade. and in Russia there migrants from many former republics so its safety to keep things modest but still people appear with horses.
A district with Putin name will appear in Grozny. from pics its obvious there will be certain feel of Gulf Emirates and off course creating such place in already developed city will take resources.
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Putinsky district will appear in the capital of Chechnya​

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This Telegram founder alluded to the 90s Saints Petersburg and the education system. and than pivot to he does not advertise. Dubai is not cheap place for this kind of talent and he was already deprived of VK (Russian facebook). he is considered richest non Royal in Dubai.

 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member

The West decided to kick Russian metals out of the London and New York metal exchanges.
I think this one chart from the video above summarizes the stupidity of this move quite well.

View attachment 128228

Russia will move their gargantuan commodities sales to the Shanghai metals exchange and further increase the price differential between Western and Chinese industry.

Next up will be sanctions on Shanghai metals exchange for supporting Putin's war.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
from 2025 they are expecting not import Lithium. and further other rare metals from 2027.
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Russia is among the top three globally in lithium reserves​

further vertical integration in EV from Rosatom. The first batteries will go to larger vehicles.
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Rosatom bought a stake in a manufacturer of charging stations for electric vehicles​

As AUTOSTAT previously reported, the Rosatom state corporation presented a universal battery of its own design for public and commercial electric transport. By the end of 2024, the batteries will be tested at factory testing sites as part of vehicles. Depending on the customer’s needs, the battery system is equipped with batteries ranging from 1 to 16 pieces, which allows for various combinations of voltage and capacity parameters. This system supports fast charging; the capacity of one universal battery can be 42.6 kWh. The battery is designed for installation in urban public transport (electric buses and trolleybuses with extended autonomous travel), as well as in medium-duty and light commercial vehicles, heavy electric trucks, electric vessels, electric trains, etc. Thus, in accordance with the current technical specifications, a system of six batteries will be installed in the Moscow electric bus.
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© Автостат.
The battery case is made of high-strength aluminum alloy, the battery is based on Li-NMC (lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt) battery cells with an energy density of 260 watt-hours per kilogram. The new product is equipped with a highly efficient temperature control system, which allows it to work in climatic zones of the Russian Federation with temperatures ranging from -40°C to +40°C.

This programming contest ICPC. this time a different Russian institute won than the usuals. even in that Barcelona Campus has Russian. this show the effectiveness of the system so long after Soviets.

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They still connecting Soviet and Russian for Soft Power.

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Opening of Russian Film Week in Beijing​

On the occasion of the centenary of its founding, the Russian "Mosfilm" studio opened the "Soviet and Russian Film Week" festival in Beijing.

Kamila is coming to China for event despite Olympic doping case. let see if this happens. Already opened a weibo account. She is the youngest person attending too many government events and her Tatar history traces backs to fighting historic wars and this a trend that Putin is starting.
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Vladimir Putin announced the preparation of a “new elite” in the country from war participants


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