Rumoured Projects & Likelihood Thereof

Tomboy said:

I wonder if we could upgrade to a 3 given that SOYO just hinted about the existence of such an aircraft today in his post about the radiator arrangement on WJ-10 nacelle.

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IMO the PLA do really need something to replace the old Y-7s

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I'd be reluctant to put it at "3" for now, since it's only SOYO who has mentioned this on Weibo thus far, and that he mentioned that as a "guess". Whether he meant his "guess" as a "I believe that there might be a project on this, based on my deduction on the auxiliary air intake differences of the WJ-10 seen on the Y-15 versus the AEP400 seen on the revived MA700/other engines" or "I did find some papers/documents indicating that this project is in some kind of progress" is unclear to me, so I'd choose to be cautious for the time being.

sunnymaxi said:

why not MA-700 to replace older Y-7 ? another turboprop clean-sheet design is a colossal waste of money and time.

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Refer to @Tomboy's reply.

Besides, the C-295 has already proven itself in the recent CSAR mission for the downed F-15 pilots inside Iran (also pointed out by SOYO), hence I believe that China could also be looking into the needs for this kind of tactical airlifter (for similar CSAR missions in Taiwan or in the Xizang Plateau, alongside other missions). In addition, it's already long in the tooth for the Y-7 family (which is based on the old An-26 from the early-1970s) still in PLA service to be retired and be replaced by this point.

Tomboy said:

Really depends on what they actually want, if they want a true tactical airlifter, MA-700 will not be sufficient as it is not designed for rough/unprep and short strips takeoffs and landings which is something you'll probably want on a frontline tactical transport, neither does it have a rear ramp like C-27J/C-295 which is also pretty important for paradropping and airlifting. On the other hand, if the PLA just wants a maritime patrol aircraft, VIP/troop transport or utility, MA-700 should be more than enough.

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see this interesting piece of information.

Xian AIC going to invest 329 million RMB in regional aircraft sector.. looks like MA-700 program accelerated for certification and maybe for something else as well.


@ACuriousPLAFan

sunnymaxi said:

see this interesting piece of information.

Xian AIC going to invest 329 million RMB in regional aircraft sector.. looks like MA-700 program accelerated for certification and maybe for something else as well.

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@ACuriousPLAFan

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That's most likely referring to the MA700, which is indeed a regional aircraft.

On one hand, what has been subtly hinted/speculated at by SOYO is a C-27J/C-295-counterpart, which is a tactical airlifter of military nature from the very beginning, with (mainly) military-exclusive features like a cargo bay and a cargo ramp door. On the other hand, the MA700 is not known as a military aircraft and has often been considered a counterpart to the ATR72 and Q400 instead, which also meant that the MA700 isn't designed for rugged field operations under combat scenarios in the first place.

So, no - I don't think that the MA700 will have any further developments/variants into a Sino-C-295/C-27J if this speculated/hypothetical project does exist.

Speaking of which - SOYO posted this illustration (likely taken from an academic paper/patent document), which seems to depict some kind of fairings and structures (which are typically seen on various special mission aircraft) placed across different parts of the aircraft fuselage:



In the meantime, SOYO has noted that the airframe's outline above is actually taken from the Air China Cargo website's page on the A330-243P2F (Passenger-To-Freighter), of which the airframe's outline has been seen several times in academic papers and/or patent documents:




This, per my understanding, is that the authors of the academic papers and/or patent documents are merely using this Air China Cargo A330P2F's outline as bases for their illustrations on whatever special mission aircraft that is being discussed upon in those papers and/or documents, rather than specifically indicating that whatever special mission aircraft studied/illustrated in those papers and/or documents will be utilizing an A330-sized airframe as its/their platform(s).

Of course, I should note that this may or may not mean anything, or whether this is related to the previously discussed common platform aircraft or not. Hence, please note that I'm posting these here just for the record.

Tomboy said:

AFAIK, it seems the argument on the Chinese side is not really whether PLA will choose a new platform instead of relying on Y-9s (Most people seems to agree that the Y-9 turboprop platform is due to replacement) but actually whether there'll be a dedicated platform built instead of just waiting for C929/919.

Some argues that CXF is due within this decade while all of C929's critical systems are or have initial options to be domestic while also being able to take advantage of the logistics and repair network that is envisioned for COMAC aircraft further reducing cost hence pursuing a separate military only development is a waste of time and money.

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ACuriousPLAFan said:

I know one of the most prominent voice against this new common platform aircraft on Weibo is @老王RR涡扇花动机. He velhelmly rejected the notion of such aircraft, with one of his main arguments being that nobody is modifying 757s and 767s to be used as MPA/ASW, EW and AEW&C aircraft today, and that there won't be enough demand for such non-civilian common platform aircraft to justify and cover the costs incured during development and production, in lieu of the C919 and the upcoming C929 (which he apparently believes that domestic companies/suppliers will step up WRT the components for both aircraft "soon enough"). He also floated the notion that the CXF project (which is supposed to be China's all-indigenous variant of the C919) would be coming out sometime within these next few years (though he did mention 2027 for some reason), hence negating the need to develop such an aircraft.

Of course, this certainly doesn't mean that I agree with his points. @latenlazy, @Blitzo and others have already explained the reasons pretty well.

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Now that I think about it, are people like @老王RR涡扇花动机 even known to have connections to the military side of things (e.g., Xi'an AC and Shaanxi AC), instead of only the civilian side of things (i.e., COMAC)?

Based on his Weibo posting history, I can see that it's clearly the latter, which certainly makes him less comparable to (and less dependable on such topics than) the likes of the known big shrimps on the Chinese side of OSINT, who actually do have sources from the military side of things.

According to 一定会对蛙动手, SAC has some sort of manned supersonic strategic reconnaissance aircraft project. He says that a paper about it exists and is certain that the project itself also exists.

00CuriousObserver said:

According to 一定会对蛙动手, SAC has some sort of manned supersonic strategic reconnaissance aircraft project. He says that a paper about it exists and is certain that the project itself also exists.

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Hmmm ... different but it would fit to this shape!

00CuriousObserver said:

According to 一定会对蛙动手, SAC has some sort of manned supersonic strategic reconnaissance aircraft project. He says that a paper about it exists and is certain that the project itself also exists.

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Are those folding fins? If so, it reminds me about the initial speculation of J-50 having such folding fins, but maybe the insiders were confused (or misleading?) regarding which project did have folding fins.

00CuriousObserver said:

According to 一定会对蛙动手, SAC has some sort of manned supersonic strategic reconnaissance aircraft project. He says that a paper about it exists and is certain that the project itself also exists.

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Does anyone remember that aerodynamics paper that supposedly describes a supposedly HCM detaching from the weapons bay at high Mach (Mach 3+)?

Could this be related to this...?