Rumoured Projects & Likelihood Thereof

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
Agreed.

Speaking of which, which company/organization/institute is responsible for the development of the CFX?

C929 flight control system contract won by AVIC XXX subsidiary. they even announced it on their wechat account.. this is a huge deal considering C919 flight control system came from Honeywell.. all composite material used in C929 are locally sourced as well. despite being the most technological complex project the localization of C929 core components shows the confidence Chinese suppliers gain after C919 and AG600 development. AG600 glass cockpit looks absolutely world class and supplied by AVIC 615 institute. this is what @老王RR涡扇花动机. was talking about........

CFX variant is replacing all imported components in C919 with locally sourced parts.
 
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Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
A really crazy idea: Is it reasonable to be able to develop a bomber based on shared wing and engines as this platform?

Last year after the 9.3 parade, there were discussions on a possible future B-52/Tu-95-esque bomber meant to function as cheap missile trucks, given that this platform could provide a wing and engine designed for an overall MTOW between 150-180t which really isn't much lighter than Tu-95, would it be reasonable to use that wing and pair it with a new fuselage for a bomber? It would probably massively reduce both developmental costs and overall lifetime costs for both aircraft types.

Granted, I've never heard of any cases of passenger jets designs being modified into bombers, though there are cases of where the opposite happens such as the Tu-114 which was basically just a Tu-95 wing and engines with a brand new wider pressured fuselage.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
A really crazy idea: Is it reasonable to be able to develop a bomber based on shared wing and engines as this platform?

Last year after the 9.3 parade, there were discussions on a possible future B-52/Tu-95-esque bomber meant to function as cheap missile trucks, given that this platform could provide a wing and engine designed for an overall MTOW between 150-180t which really isn't much lighter than Tu-95, would it be reasonable to use that wing and pair it with a new fuselage for a bomber? It would probably massively reduce both developmental costs and overall lifetime costs for both aircraft types.

Granted, I've never heard of any cases of passenger jets designs being modified into bombers, though there are cases of where the opposite happens such as the Tu-114 which was basically just a Tu-95 wing and engines with a brand new wider pressured fuselage.
You really need to look at the mission requirements and corresponding flight profiles you want for said bomber. If you just want a low cost bomb truck the H-6 is already a more than adequate platform.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
A really crazy idea: Is it reasonable to be able to develop a bomber based on shared wing and engines as this platform?

Last year after the 9.3 parade, there were discussions on a possible future B-52/Tu-95-esque bomber meant to function as cheap missile trucks, given that this platform could provide a wing and engine designed for an overall MTOW between 150-180t which really isn't much lighter than Tu-95, would it be reasonable to use that wing and pair it with a new fuselage for a bomber? It would probably massively reduce both developmental costs and overall lifetime costs for both aircraft types.

Granted, I've never heard of any cases of passenger jets designs being modified into bombers, though there are cases of where the opposite happens such as the Tu-114 which was basically just a Tu-95 wing and engines with a brand new wider pressured fuselage.

I think this is stretching the idea so far (i.e. a hypothetical derivative of a yet to be confirmed project) that I think it's a bit too "out there" to be discussed seriously tbh.

The prospect of a future non stealthy general bomber has merit but at this stage I can't see it being a matter of priority and not greatly influential on the prospect of this new supposed platform.

I know one of the most prominent voice against this new common platform aircraft on Weibo is @老王RR涡扇花动机. He velhelmly rejected the notion of such aircraft, with one of his main arguments being that nobody is modifying 757s and 767s to be used as MPA/ASW, EW and AEW&C aircraft today, and that there won't be enough demand for such non-civilian common platform aircraft to justify and cover the costs incured during development and production, in lieu of the C919 and the upcoming C929 (which he apparently believes that domestic companies/suppliers will step up WRT the components for both aircraft "soon enough"). He also floated the notion that the CXF project (which is supposed to be China's all-indigenous variant of the C919) would be coming out sometime within these next few years (though he did mention 2027 for some reason), hence negating the need to develop such an aircraft.

Of course, this certainly doesn't mean that I agree with his points. @latenlazy, @Blitzo and others have already explained the reasons pretty well.

As for the demand issue - China already has 70-80+ KJ-500 today (and likely still increasing), alongside the KJ-700s and the aging KJ-200s. Sooner or later, they will need to be replaced - Of which, should this new common platform aircraft be a real thing and be introduced in the 2030s, then it would be about the right time to have the next-gen AEW&C aircraft (based on said platform aircraft) to replace them on a 1-to-1 basis by then.

Yes, ~20 years may be rather short for an aircraft, but given that tactical airlifter architectures aren't exactly the best airframe type for conducting high-frequency, extended duration missions (which is typical for special mission aircrafts as per one of the Adorable Whale's video back then), alongside the very real possibility of the designers and engineers assigned to the KJ-500 project didn't manage to fully take the possibility and potential of how the aerial warfare domain would develop and progress in the late-202s, 2030s and beyond into account when they worked on the KJ-500 back then (remember that KJ-500 actually took its first flight in the early-2010s) - I think that swapping these current AEW&C aircraft out for a much more powerful, much more capable aircraft with much greater potential for accommodating future upgrades by then would be the better/preferable option.

(I would deem this to be independent of whether the CXF or this new common platform aircraft can be made available to the PLA first.)

Hence, it is reasonable to expect a need for ~80-100 airframes for AEW&C roles, to begin with - Which, frankly, isn't that small of a number. Then, there's also most of the Gaoxin aircraft types (ELINT/EW, SIGINT, etc) and tankers/MRTTs which would demand such common platform aircraft as well, meaning that the aircraft's production run certainly won't be low.

In addition, should the PLA decide to procure such platform aircraft for special mission roles in the future - I think it can be argued that the PLA would be having different ideas on what kind of performance of the platform aircraft which they would prefer than their Western counterparts based on the operating conditions faced by the PLA being taken into account (desired capabilities, anticipated future upgrades, endurance, range, lack of overseas allied bases, etc.). This means that what the West is currently doing cannot be 100% copied-&-pasted onto China.

Though, one thing - Should the CXF be actually based on the C919, be in the same size/MTOW-category as the C919, and be actually rolled out in time for PLA service entry - Then I think we may have found a more suitable platform for China's next-gen MPA/ASW aircraft. Of course, this doesn't contradict with the need for the new common platform aircraft for many other special mission roles (if such aircraft does exist).

Essentially it is a question of
- timing (for both this common platform aircraft as well as for the domestic C919 and domestic C929 variants)
- cost (for the common platform aircraft itself)
- weight class for various missions (domestic C919 is okay for ASW/MPA, and can be suitable for ESM, EW, AEWC, but is far too small for tanking purposes, while a near 767 sized airframe is probably a little bit big for ASW/MPA but is recently suited for all of the other missions including tanking)

I would also add that even for the ASW/MPA role a near 767 sized platform could be okay if paired with future concepts like UAVs.
And for things like ELINT/SIGINT, a near 767 sized plane could offer much longer reach to the second island chain during peacetime.
 
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j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
A really crazy idea: Is it reasonable to be able to develop a bomber based on shared wing and engines as this platform?

Last year after the 9.3 parade, there were discussions on a possible future B-52/Tu-95-esque bomber meant to function as cheap missile trucks, given that this platform could provide a wing and engine designed for an overall MTOW between 150-180t which really isn't much lighter than Tu-95, would it be reasonable to use that wing and pair it with a new fuselage for a bomber? It would probably massively reduce both developmental costs and overall lifetime costs for both aircraft types.

Granted, I've never heard of any cases of passenger jets designs being modified into bombers, though there are cases of where the opposite happens such as the Tu-114 which was basically just a Tu-95 wing and engines with a brand new wider pressured fuselage.

The P-8 Poseidon is a Boeing 737 NG which has ability to drop torpedoes and bombs.
 

Kejora

Junior Member
Registered Member
If they make a KC-46 style tanker from this new plane development of YY-20B tanker might not be pursued after all.
 

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
I'm trying to compile a list of special mission aircraft that could use the alleged new platform and their estimated numbers

Aircraft typeEstimated numbersCurrent platform(s)
AEWC~75+KJ-500/KJ-2000/KJ-3000/KJ-700
EW/ELINT/SIGINT~50+Y-9LG/Y-9GR/Y-9Z//Y-9G/Y-8CB/Y-8JB/Y-8G
PYSOP~5Y-8XZ/Y-9XZ
TACAMO~15Y-9T/Y-8T
Tankers~150+YY-20A/Y-20B MRTT
Airborne Command Post~5N/A
Ranging/Weather/Test~10Y-9QX(?)
Executive Transport~5B737/A319CJ
Total~315-

Excluding MPA/ASW which IMO, would be more suitable for turboprop platforms or smaller jets, we could potentially have up to 300+ airframes procured overall if they were to replace most of the current platforms with it, this is probably a large enough number to justify separate development of a new platform. Given that XAC is allegedly the factory that is going to produce it, one would wonder if they are due for an expansion given the amount of projects that are expected to be built in reasonably large number that are associated with them such as GJ-X, H-20, Superheavy transport, common multimission platform and the in production Y-20Bs.

All of those projects are massive aircraft that needs huge floor spaces to assemble and are all allegedly going to start production within this decade or at the latest early 2030s, so we should on paper be seeing a massive expansion in capacity to support all these projects or possibly they are going to be outsourced to other firms like Shaanxi Aircraft Corp (Which AFAIK is pretty much the only other firm in China that can produce large aircraft and to my knowledge don't actually have too much on their plate, it's basically just Y-15 for now).
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I'm trying to compile a list of special mission aircraft that could use the alleged new platform and their estimated numbers

Aircraft typeEstimated numbersCurrent platform(s)
AEWC~75+KJ-500/KJ-2000/KJ-3000/KJ-700
EW/ELINT/SIGINT~50+Y-9LG/Y-9GR/Y-9Z//Y-9G/Y-8CB/Y-8JB/Y-8G
PYSOP~5Y-8XZ/Y-9XZ
TACAMO~15Y-9T/Y-8T
Tankers~150+YY-20A/Y-20B MRTT
Airborne Command Post~5N/A
Ranging/Weather/Test~10Y-9QX(?)
Executive Transport~5B737/A319CJ
Total~315-

Excluding MPA/ASW which IMO, would be more suitable for turboprop platforms or smaller jets, we could potentially have up to 300+ airframes procured overall if they were to replace most of the current platforms with it, this is probably a large enough number to justify separate development of a new platform. Given that XAC is allegedly the factory that is going to produce it, one would wonder if they are due for an expansion given the amount of projects that are expected to be built in reasonably large number that are associated with them such as GJ-X, H-20, Superheavy transport, common multimission platform and the in production Y-20Bs.

All of those projects are massive aircraft that needs huge floor spaces to assemble and are all allegedly going to start production within this decade or at the latest early 2030s, so we should on paper be seeing a massive expansion in capacity to support all these projects or possibly they are going to be outsourced to other firms like Shaanxi Aircraft Corp (Which AFAIK is pretty much the only other firm in China that can produce large aircraft and to my knowledge don't actually have too much on their plate, it's basically just Y-15 for now).

Tankers could may well be well in excess of 150+ to be honest, potentially even double that.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
- weight class for various missions (domestic C919 is okay for ASW/MPA, and can be suitable for ESM, EW, AEWC, but is far too small for tanking purposes, while a near 767 sized airframe is probably a little bit big for ASW/MPA but is recently suited for all of the other missions including tanking)

I would also add that even for the ASW/MPA role a near 767 sized platform could be okay if paired with future concepts like UAVs.
And for things like ELINT/SIGINT, a near 767 sized plane could offer much longer reach to the second island chain during peacetime.

Technically speaking, developing a smaller-sized special mission platform aircraft of the C919-category that uses two WS-20 engines (~130-160 kNs each) is very much possible in China today, given that Xi'an AC is already serial-producing the much heavier Y-20s for almost a decade by this point (i.e. the knowledge, expertise and experience are available). The demand would be present too, should China intends to have a jet-powered MPA/ASW aircraft fleet that rivals the American and Japanese counterparts (139x P-8s and 36x P-1s, respectively), apart from the needs for other types of military aircraft (e.g., VIP/special transport for high-level government officials like the C-32 and C-40).

However, such an aircraft would likely come into conflict with the CFX.

On one hand, the CFX is aimed at completely indigenizing the C919 (which would free COMAC from any potential chokehold attempts by Western component suppliers), which could render the CFX and this smaller common platform aircraft be duplicative/redundant (of each other). On the other hand, we don't know if the CFX can be certified quick enough to enter serial production quick enough to meet the needs of airlines (if there are such demands for them), let alone whether the production capacity of the CFX is large enough to fulfill the needs of both the civilian and military domains simultaneously for the foreseeable years to come. There are also questions on whether the PLA has enough patience to wait for the CFX to be ready; whether the higher ups in Beijing would like the CFX to stay clear of the PLA (just like the present-day C919), etc. etc.

In any case, should all of these (CFX, smaller common platform, 150-ton common platform) be unavailable to/not chosen by the the PLA, then the PLA would just stick with the Y-9 (and Y-15) platforms for their new/next-gen MPA/ASW aircraft for the foreseeable future.

A really crazy idea: Is it reasonable to be able to develop a bomber based on shared wing and engines as this platform?

Last year after the 9.3 parade, there were discussions on a possible future B-52/Tu-95-esque bomber meant to function as cheap missile trucks, given that this platform could provide a wing and engine designed for an overall MTOW between 150-180t which really isn't much lighter than Tu-95, would it be reasonable to use that wing and pair it with a new fuselage for a bomber? It would probably massively reduce both developmental costs and overall lifetime costs for both aircraft types.

Granted, I've never heard of any cases of passenger jets designs being modified into bombers, though there are cases of where the opposite happens such as the Tu-114 which was basically just a Tu-95 wing and engines with a brand new wider pressured fuselage.

Shared engines? Perhaps.
Shared wing? No.

Non-VLO bombers differ from the other large aircraft types, such that their wings are required to be able to carry heavy missile payloads through their underwing pylons. The H-6K/J/Ns are able to carry CJ-10, YJ-12/15 and YJ-21 missiles, each of them weighs about 2-4+ tons.

In contrast, the underwing pylons of the P-8 are rated to carry a maximum of ~1.1 tons each. (Note: The P-8 lies roughly in the same MTOW category as the H-6 family, albeit likely not quite close).

Granted, the P-8 is based on the civilian 737-NG airframe, but the limits are there. In addition, we certainly won't expect special mission aircrafts to be able to regularly haul missiles that weighs 2-4+ tons each to shoot at enemy warships/land-based facilities either, since those missions are better performed by dedicated bombers and strike aircraft.

Furthermore, the additional structural reinforcements required to enable hauling heavy missiles on underwing pylons would be necessary for the wings of bombers, but would become literal deadweights for the wings of special mission aircrafts. So there's that.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Technically speaking, developing a smaller-sized special mission platform aircraft of the C919-category that uses two WS-20 engines (~130-160 kNs each) is very much possible in China today, given that Xi'an AC is already serial-producing the much heavier Y-20s for almost a decade by this point (i.e. the knowledge, expertise and experience are all available). The demand is present too, should China intends to have an MPA/ASW aircraft fleet that rivals the American and Japanese counterparts (139x P-8s and 36x P-1s, respectively), apart from the needs for other types of military aircraft (e.g., VIP/special transport for high-level government officials like the C-32 and C-40).

However, such an aircraft would likely come into conflict with the CFX.

On one hand, the CFX is aimed at completely indigenize the C919 (which would free COMAC from any potential chokehold attempts by Western component suppliers), which could render the CFX and this smaller common platform aircraft be duplicative/redundant (of each other). On the other hand, we don't know if CFX can be certified quick enough to enter serial production quick enough to meet the needs of airlines (if there are such demands for them), let alone whether the production capacity of the CFX is large enough to fulfill the needs of both the civilian and military domains simultaneously in the coming years. There are also questions of whether the PLA has enough patience to wait for the CFX to be ready; whether the higher ups in Beijing would like the CFX to stay clear of the PLA (just like the present-day C919), etc.

Perhaps the PLA would just stick with the Y-9 (and Y-15) platforms for their new/next-gen MPA/ASW aircraft for the foreseeable future, if they don't want to use the 150-ton common platform aircraft for MPA/ASW...

Yes, it's absolutely within their capability to develop a smaller sized special mission platform powered by two WS-20s, which would end up being C919/737/A320 in weight class.

I wasn't talking about how such an aircraft would be particularly difficult for the PRC aero industry to develop -- in fact I wasn't even entertaining the idea of such an aircraft, because as far as we know, no such aircraft is in the works to begin with (which obviously would also be a bit odd in basically being a less capable CFX).
In short, we don't need to entertain the idea of a "twin WS-20 engine C919/737/A320 special mission platform" because there are no rumours of such an aircraft.


Instead, based on current rumours, the discussion should be clearly fenced off only in terms of:
-domestic C919/CFX
-domestic C929
-this "sino-near-767" aircraft...
... and how timing, cost and weight class/mission appropriateness works for those three platforms.
 
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