Rumoured Projects & Likelihood Thereof

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
Welp, apparently Adorable Whale is claiming that (in his own Weibo chat group) the rumors/claims on the development of the new common platform for special mission aircraft are merely nonsense:

View attachment 175215

Which SOYO replied: "We'll know everything in the next couple of years anyway."

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On the other hand, @Oneninety replied to a follower asking about this development: "It's only a matter of time (before this new common platform aircraft comes out."
View attachment 175217

So, eh. Make of that what you will.
fine but if soyo and Oneninety are saying this it means something is really cooking but yeah we have to wait and see.

but this general purpose aircraft will solve many shortcomings include Government VIP transport.
 

MeiouHades

Junior Member
Registered Member
A Sino P-8 based on the 757/767 will indeed be very interesting. Easily the most advanced MPA to enter service at that point
 

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
fine but if soyo and Oneninety are saying this it means something is really cooking but yeah we have to wait and see.

but this general purpose aircraft will solve many shortcomings include Government VIP transport.
Though, not that I doubt them but I wonder where they get their sources. Unlike the Guancha trio who actually has insider sources, SOYO to my knowledge is basically just a really dedicated guy with decent past record who digs through papers and possibly some info from followers etc. I'm not really sure who Oneninety is but someone apparently said he works at CAC, though given how proper projects are likely highly compartmentalised hence even if CAC is contracted to build parts for this new aircraft, I doubt the average employee would know anything about its purpose assuming he even works directly with production, administration and other non technical staff would likely know even less.
 

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
Though, not that I doubt them but I wonder where they get their sources. Unlike the Guancha trio who actually has insider sources, SOYO to my knowledge is basically just a really dedicated guy with decent past record who digs through papers and possibly some info from followers etc. I'm not really sure who Oneninety is but someone apparently said he works at CAC, though given how proper projects are likely highly compartmentalised hence even if CAC is contracted to build parts for this new aircraft, I doubt the average employee would know anything about its purpose assuming he even works directly with production, administration and other non technical staff would likely know even less.
yeah Guancha trio are tier1 source. they barely leak any secretive projects so we are left with these people like orca and soyo. Oneninety is more credible but still lower than Guancha guys.

this 100-150 tons category class general purpose aircraft is in news for quite some time. this rumor is quite old actually so this latest news looks authentic but again we have to wait and see..
 

00CuriousObserver

Senior Member
Registered Member
Though, not that I doubt them but I wonder where they get their sources. Unlike the Guancha trio who actually has insider sources, SOYO to my knowledge is basically just a really dedicated guy with decent past record who digs through papers and possibly some info from followers etc. I'm not really sure who Oneninety is but someone apparently said he works at CAC, though given how proper projects are likely highly compartmentalised hence even if CAC is contracted to build parts for this new aircraft, I doubt the average employee would know anything about its purpose assuming he even works directly with production, administration and other non technical staff would likely know even less.

Information diffusion is quite interesting and it is a key part of what we are doing. The fundamental principle is that information exists and it spreads, just at different rates and through different avenues.

SOYO is apparently some kind of teaching assistant at a university right now (something of this nature, I don't exactly remember). He might just know someone, maybe a former classmate who works somewhere relevant, or someone he met at the Zhuhai Airshow and stayed in contact with. Alternatively, he might know where to look in places that others do not.

These people also all have their private groupchats.

Another factor to consider is the denominator. We should expect there to be many projects currently being undertaken, projects we don't know about. At some point, statistically we should hear about something.

In fact, I have noticed that the Guancha Gang has significantly reduced how much information they disclose over the past two thirds of the year. It is highly likely that they thought they were attracting too much attention. I did translate entire sections of what they said, and others have done similar things as well. One post even ended up being shared by Deino on Twitter and going somewhat viral. I imagine they did not like that and cut back on what they disclose. Having this kind of information spread on the foreign internet and traced back to them is very sensitive and potentially dangerous, so they need to be extremely cautious.

Which means I think the PLA watching "unknown unknowns" set is currently larger than what we observe.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Though, not that I doubt them but I wonder where they get their sources. Unlike the Guancha trio who actually has insider sources, SOYO to my knowledge is basically just a really dedicated guy with decent past record who digs through papers and possibly some info from followers etc. I'm not really sure who Oneninety is but someone apparently said he works at CAC, though given how proper projects are likely highly compartmentalised hence even if CAC is contracted to build parts for this new aircraft, I doubt the average employee would know anything about its purpose assuming he even works directly with production, administration and other non technical staff would likely know even less.

In that case, who is Adorable Whale/Cute Orca?
 

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
In that case, who is Adorable Whale/Cute Orca?
I actually have no idea who they actually are or what he does other than the fact that he has a large follower count, apparently said to be reasonably credible, possibly knows personally or atleast interacts somewhat regularly with Guancha folks, primarily does aerospace/military topics and thats about it.
 
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