Robotics and humanoid robotics & civilian drones discussion

PopularScience

Junior Member
Registered Member
How much market share have domestic Chinese industrial robot producers acquired? If I recall correctly they had acquired close to 50% at the end of Q2...
Statistics from the Advanced Industrial Robot Research Institute (GGII) show that China's domestic industrial robot market share reached 52.45% in 2023, surpassing foreign brands in terms of sales for the first time. According to Rui Industrial MIR DATABANK statistics, in the first half of this year, the growth rate of domestic brand industrial robots was 21.3%, while foreign brand industrial robots fell by 7.4%, and the share of domestic robots has reached 50.1%.

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Totoro

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It all depends on how good a robot and its software is. Not talking about current robots but some future variants here.
But once a robot is good enough to do 90% of home chores, most households in US will have one. If people are willing to dish out 20-40 k for a car to last them 10 years, they will be paying that much for a robot to last that long. If not for a shorter robot lifetime. With 130 million households in US, that is some 13 million robot units sold per year. So 1 million robots per year would be like 8% of the US market. Entirely reachable for a company like Tesla. Providing their product is as good as competitors'. Chinese made robots will not reach US market anyway due to tariffs and economic warfare.
So... Perhaps it won't be in the next 5-10 years, technology depending, but eventually we will see many millions of robots sold to inidviduals per year, for the equivalent of today's 20 thousand USD.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
It all depends on how good a robot and its software is. Not talking about current robots but some future variants here.
But once a robot is good enough to do 90% of home chores, most households in US will have one. If people are willing to dish out 20-40 k for a car to last them 10 years, they will be paying that much for a robot to last that long. If not for a shorter robot lifetime. With 130 million households in US, that is some 13 million robot units sold per year. So 1 million robots per year would be like 8% of the US market. Entirely reachable for a company like Tesla. Providing their product is as good as competitors'. Chinese made robots will not reach US market anyway due to tariffs and economic warfare.
So... Perhaps it won't be in the next 5-10 years, technology depending, but eventually we will see many millions of robots sold to inidviduals per year, for the equivalent of today's 20 thousand USD.
Nah, you way overestimate the consumption ability of most US households.

A 20k(current day dollars) house robot would likely only be acquired by less than 20% of US households at the very most (would even say I'm being generous).
 

Totoro

Major
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Disagree. Once a robot can do 90% chores, it will become so desirable that it will be a bigger priority in a household than the second car. And there are 37% housholds in usa with 2 cars, on top of 22% households wirh 3 or more cars. Basically 50-60% households will dish out money on such a robot.
The amount of time a robot would save to entire household cant be overstated. We are talking a few hours per day. And it can even save money. People often order food because they dont have time or energy to cook after work. Imagine coming home to a cooked, therefore cheaper, meal for 2-4 people.

I stress this is only possible once robots are actually that good. It's definitely not in cards in the next 5-10 years and it may take longer. may be even a few decades.
 

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Disagree. Once a robot can do 90% chores, it will become so desirable that it will be a bigger priority in a household than the second car. And there are 37% housholds in usa with 2 cars, on top of 22% households wirh 3 or more cars. Basically 50-60% households will dish out money on such a robot.
The amount of time a robot would save to entire household cant be overstated. We are talking a few hours per day. And it can even save money. People often order food because they dont have time or energy to cook after work. Imagine coming home to a cooked, therefore cheaper, meal for 2-4 people.

I stress this is only possible once robots are actually that good. It's definitely not in cards in the next 5-10 years and it may take longer. may be even a few decades.

I don't think even you yourself think what you wrote is anything but science fiction at this point and that is why you added the second paragraph. An attempt at creating a 'safe' prediction/'rainbow' comment from a dreamer but your premise is very wrong.

Having cars in the US is an absolute necessity. Having more cars in no ways suggest higher disposable income rather more people in the household and much higher monthly car loan payments. Ask yourself, how many physical items inside an average American house is that worth $20K today?

You also forget to consider perhaps people do 'chores' for social/familial/health reasons. Wheelchairs are everywhere today but surely you don't suggest elderlies should stop walking altogether.

Do you really think it is wise to have a single-point-of-failure for 90% of essential tasks? I hope you are not an engineer or a financial advisor.

When robots get smarter, so will everything else. I rather have multiple super-smart and specialized gadgets making food, fold my clothing, vacuum the floor, walk my dogs, wash my car, and play tennis maybe all at the same time. Why would I want a single robot? Neither would you.
 
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