Renminbi (RMB)/Yuan Appreciation & Internationalization

tonyget said:

Because most of goods traded aren't under sanction

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you seriously need to study more about geopolitics , finance and other tech. i have noticed so many times, you appear out of no where just to post some random unknown link ..

Semiconductors , machine tools and critical machinery have been banned from all western countries and Japan , Taiwan.. its only China, who is supplying all these critical goods..
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in 2023 about 90% of Russia’s microelectronics came from China

Nearly 70% of Russia’s approximately $900 million in machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023 came from China.


Russia is almost entirely cut off from SWIFT system, then how can China continue supply to those materials and manufacturing goods.. its from CIPS system.

tonyget said:

It just shows you that how vulnerable Chinese banks are to the US. And the CIPS system doesn't seem to have much progress recent years，at least China-Russia trade are still dominated by SWIFT

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"China’s Yuan replaces US dollar, Euro as Russia’s ‘primary’ foreign currency for overseas economic activity: Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina says the Yuan’s share in Russia’s exports has increased from 0.4 to 34.5 per cent over the last two years."


what is this .. ? LOOOOL

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30 Russian banks seem to have joined CIPS.

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RMB trading in Russia's forex market has hit an all time high again in both OTC and exchange trading. Over 50% in March in exchange trading and almost 40% in OTC market


@Michaelsinodef @FairAndUnbiased ..

it's been known for a while now that banks who want to do business with the West are more way of handling Russian transactions. There are plenty of smaller banks willing to do business with Russia.

This topic is on RMB, can we stay on topic?

sunnymaxi said:

30 Russian banks seem to have joined CIPS.

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RMB trading in Russia's forex market has hit an all time high again in both OTC and exchange trading. Over 50% in March in exchange trading and almost 40% in OTC market

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Agree. Think its also because Russian banks/institutions have little to no choice than to go to China. Will be good if the CIPS can also impose itself without this and can compete more with SWIFT on equal footing in future. So it will have to offer some advantage which SWIFT doesnt to be widely adopted globally.

tonyget said:

Why do you Chinese companies use these second tier banks to do business with Russians in the first place？Because they cannot use “large SOE banks”. The “large SOE banks” block these kind of transaction（deals involve “sensitive products”）ever since the very beginning of the war，that's why Chinese companies went to smaller banks. Now smaller banks also starting to deny these kind of transaction.

It just shows you that how vulnerable Chinese banks are to the US. And the CIPS system doesn't seem to have much progress recent years，at least China-Russia trade are still dominated by SWIFT

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I think you need to calm down on this and be more rational. To be honest even if its the case, i dont think its unreqsonable. As much as Russia(just like China) has conflict of interests against the West , we also have to acknowledge that Russia has almost a weak economic/trade weight when compared to China's interests vis a vis the US/West and its East Asian allies(Japan, South Korea,Singapore, Taiwan etc). So if most Chinese companies had to choose (especially those with international exposure ) then they will choose to forgo Russia for their larger international and trade interests which is reasonable since if they are sanctioned by the countries i mentioned they will.lose far more than what they can gain with Russia. So it depends on their exposure as well. So we cant expect Chinese companies to act like it was business as usual. I think that's why many Chinese companies have either hidden their involvement in Russia or "officially " stop operations there but others have carried on.
Its actually quite surprising that Russia doesnt have any major project that has come to fruition with China and be successful. Can barely think of any which is weird since one would have expectedboth countriesto have many such joint projects given their shared interests good relations . Surprisngly China even has far more successful economic/trade relations and joint project with Western countries than with Russia.
The only major project which would have been good to see between Russia and China would have been the CR929 widebody civil aircraft project but as always its seems Russia messed things up with Ukraine invasion and had to be kicked out of the project. I think even the ILRS for moon base project might go the same way as well. Having Russia as a meaningful partner in any major prokect nowadays is a sensitive topic for any country. Its unfortunate but that's the reality.

Michael90 said:

Its actually quite surprising that Russia doesnt have any major project that has come to fruition with China and be successful. Can barely think of any which is weird since one would have expectedboth countriesto have many such joint projects given their shared interests good relations . Surprisngly China even has far more successful economic/trade relations and joint project with Western countries than with Russia.

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ESPO and Power of Siberia pipelines are not large enough for you?

Russia has also transferred certain advanced technologies to China. One example is uranium centrifuge technology. Another example is sodium fast nuclear reactor technology. Yet another example is technology for manned spaceflight. It is pretty obvious that the Russians transferred the technologies used to make the Soyuz capsule so China would develop the Shenzhou. Russia also transferred designs to help make the JL-10 trainer aircraft.

Another interesting development.

Shanghai Stock Exchange is the sole commodities bourse to stay open to Russian Aluminium, copper and nickel as sanctions drive Moscow towards China | South China Morning Post.

Shanghai is the sole commodities bourse to stay open to Russian aluminium, copper and nickel as sanctions drive Moscow towards China​

• The London Metal Exchange’s ban on newly produced Russian aluminium, copper and nickel is likely to drive Chinese imports even higher
• It also leaves the Shanghai Futures Exchange as the only major commodities bourse in the world to accept Russian shipments of the three metals

sunnymaxi said:

Another interesting development.

Shanghai Stock Exchange is the sole commodities bourse to stay open to Russian Aluminium, copper and nickel as sanctions drive Moscow towards China | South China Morning Post.

Shanghai is the sole commodities bourse to stay open to Russian aluminium, copper and nickel as sanctions drive Moscow towards China​

• The London Metal Exchange’s ban on newly produced Russian aluminium, copper and nickel is likely to drive Chinese imports even higher
• It also leaves the Shanghai Futures Exchange as the only major commodities bourse in the world to accept Russian shipments of the three metals

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not shanghai stock exchange, shanghai futures exchange. They are entirely different. The latter actually has some really unique liquidities and more potential to take over from LME. Although, it does split flow with DCE and ZCE

Good news for Yuan. The usage in swift increase to 5%.

is there a way to compare yuan usage with USD outside of swift? Total CIPS trading, total yuan CIPS trading outside China, total USD CIPS trading (if applicable) and so on.

Totoro said:

is there a way to compare yuan usage with USD outside of swift? Total CIPS trading, total yuan CIPS trading outside China, total USD CIPS trading (if applicable) and so on.

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Not really.

Or atleast, I'm not aware of where such data is publically available.

Edit: Actually, we get some crumbs for total (like yearly or quarterly?), but not really that detailed.

Although it should be quite larger than done through Swift iirc.