Renminbi (RMB)/Yuan Appreciation & Internationalization

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not an expert in this domain. However, I do know that allowing the yuan to become a reserve currency would increase demand for the yuan in the global currency market, putting upward pressure on the value of the yuan while maintaining the current value would require more yuan would have to be printed, causing inflation in China. So, allowing the value to appreciate would eliminate China's trade advantage and makes its peoducts less competitive globally. Therefore, i think that's why China still maintains capital controls to keep demand for the yuan limited, or I'm I mistaken?
Plus, there's also the outsized role played by the United States in capital markets, trade and debt reinforces the status quo.
Else it's unreasonable that despite China's large economy and beings the world's top trader, its share of RMB in use for world trade/reserve currency is even below that of our currency the pound and even Japanese Yen.
View attachment 110271
View attachment 110270
I think it's also because of the reason I mentioned above? To be honest, as long as this is the case, I don't see the Yuan ever being a significant challenge to the US Dollar. Unless the global economy undergoes a complete overhaul(which is unlikely anytime soon).
A large offshore market for your national currency is only a problem if the international use of the RMB is disproportionately high compared to the domestic market. This is the problem of the Swiss franc, the Swiss market is so small that large pools of francs abroad could quickly overwhelm the Swiss national bank.

China is increasing its share of global GDP every year with GDP growth and Chinese international trade outstripping the global average every year. So China has a lot of room for increasing the amount of offshore RMB.

Supplying RMB to international trading partners is actually necessary to prevent appreciation of the currency. If countries like Russia, Brazil, Iran and Saudi are buying up all the available RMB for their reserves and their trade with third countries, there'll be a shortage of RMB resulting in unnecessary appreciation
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
This is probably the most under appreciated comment of the Macron trip (which in itself was a giant finger toward America).

If Europe starts to use the Euro to buy oil & natural gas, de-dollarization is going to happen really fast. Keep in mind that it was a French company that did the first LNG trade on SHPGX. Now China just needs to do things to encourage more companies from France and rest of the world to buy LNG from SHPGX.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
This is something to think about
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
now we have others observing that China has suddenly become a very safe place to invest compared to Western banks. Remember the Saudis losing at least $1B with Credit Suisse? That cannot have gone down to well.

so would you rather invest in a real Chinese asset or UST or Swiss bank right now?
People from back 15 years ago will be very surprised at the answer today.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Share of Yuan transactions have reached 39% in Russia and dollar transctions have decreased to 34% in Russia.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Another item here important to see
In a signal to the yuan's rising position in Russia, NBD-Bank, a Russian bank for small and medium-sized businesses, has joined the Cross-border Interbank Payment System — or CIPS, which specializes in renminbi cross-border payment clearing, according to media reports.

Joining CIPS can reduce the processing time for renminbi payments in China,
the goal of having Russian banks/corporates fully adopting Chinese is working itself out. Now just need more banks on CIPS
 
Top