Rand Report

Don't underestimate the US. If we're talking war, you can bet anything that is supporting Chinese war efforts can and will be targeted. I don't think you understand how war is fought. And what the objectives would be here.

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Oh really? Well why did the US not even bomb Chinese airfields in the Korean War?

Well, I don't see much change in the larger picture by 2020. That's larger picture I'm talking about. I believe China will have a new generation fighter deployed and such. But it's hard to see if their own resource situation changes in any large way to change anything significantly. And this RAND report doesn't address that as well.

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A new generation fighter by itself is only a single asset, but if their AD network continues to develop at the current rate it will be far beyond anything the US is capable of fielding today. If they choose to develop their navy in the right direction they could potentially develop a regional/green-water force capable of challenging blue-water navies in their waters.

It would take no time to strike assembled assets if necessary as we have submarines and surface ships carrying cruise missiles in the Western Pacific today.

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Subsonic cruise missiles are one of the easiest targets for naval air defense assets to intercept. The main advantage of cruise missiles is their ability to terrain-hug which is negated in open waters.

Well that's true. Taiwan could do things to lessen US intervention. Taiwan knows how that situation works though. So I'm not too concerned about that. Not talking politically, but the US sees status quo, or peaceful integration as the only way. Crazy Chinese invasion scenarios are out of the question.

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Exactly, without an outright declaration of independence there will be no war period. By 2020 China will also gain the capability to destroy Taiwan economically without utilizing a single military asset.

If anyone is talking about war, the chance of a conflict between two powerful nation is slim. In history, you won't see that happening unless its some kind of a World War (plus the last one was back 60+ years ago) The attitude have changed nowadays so more and more nations are trying to refrain from entering a war unless its necessary (like some big nation killing a small one). I know curiosity is part of human's personality--- we all want the top dogs to give it all out, but it is scary because it involves big consequence that we don't want it to happen. Similiarly in a MMA main event match, you want two strongest dude in the arsenal to fight each other , not a strong vs underdog. The best method to decide who is good or bad is to play a ear-simulated game. just my two cent.

The more and more I see it... China is developing weapons more for the idea of technology demonstration, not to use it in war. The numbers China produce for each series or model (either submarine or destroyer) are very limited (no more than 3-4) before moving on to the next concept.

If anyone is talking about war, the chance of a conflict between two powerful nation is slim. In history, you won't see that happening unless its some kind of a World War

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That is very true, I am 100% sure every member of this forum does not expect to see China and the US going to for the next half century. We are just discussing the military, technical, and operational aspects of such a hypothetical scenario.

twodollarss said:

The best method to decide who is good or bad is to play a ear-simulated game. just my two cent.

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I was meant to say.. If anyone want to know who is the better out of the two or which two warplanes (i.e j10 vs f22) will win in a dogfight etc..., then play a war-simulated game so no one will get injured or killed. :nana:

Yes, it is all hypothetical. You know, some people are getting so serious about it. :rofl:

You only ever argue merits of the system crobato. Been there, done that. We do have the capability to upgrade to this standard, and screaming about the merits doesn't change that. There are however a number of naval leaders who disagree with you on those merits and viability of this system. It's obvious as they continue working the issue in FY09. I do know they know alot better than the average internet forum poster.

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You simply failed to account over and over again that it is not safe. How do you expect it to work? Putin gets a call from the White House at 4 in the morning telling him "the missiles flying to Russia right now are not nuclear." That's basically how the paper sounds like.

Please tell me how this system is safe.

And let me remind to you again, that Putin, the most possible guy in the receiving end, has already expressed his opinion. He would consider it a nuclear attack. You think his opinion is not counted?

As for the "capability", if you have them, why do you have to fork over $250 million plus on a plausibility study dfor "research and development" that has yet to include the money to building a prototype?

twodollarss said:

The more and more I see it... China is developing weapons more for the idea of technology demonstration, not to use it in war. The numbers China produce for each series or model (either submarine or destroyer) are very limited (no more than 3-4) before moving on to the next concept.

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True on some models, like the 051B/C and the 052, but not on others, like the 054 series (six counted so far including the originals); the Songs/Yuans (the latter is evolved from the former), the 093/094 (the latter is derived from the former). Another example is the Houbei which is in all out mass production from shipyards nationally. Usually if China feels like it hit the jackpot on that design, they tend to produce on that model. A lot.

It might also appear that the budget balance on the PLAN is leaning favorably to the subs, which means less money for the surface ships, resulting in less surface ships built. The more expensive the surface ship is, the less it tends to be, so its easier for the PLAN to crank out cheaper ships like the 054s and the 022s rather than the destroyers.

crobato said:

The more expensive the surface ship is, the less it tends to be, so its easier for the PLAN to crank out cheaper ships like the 054s and the 022s rather than the destroyers.

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That is the focus of almost every world navy; more money on the general purpose combat warships than the more specialized warships (such as dedicated air defence warships).

As we're approaching the end of 2008, the trend toward an agreement on the Taiwan issue obviously makes any talk of a conflict academic. But it's interesting as a purely theoretical exercise.

China does currently lack the ability to prevent B-2 from flying right up to around the coastline. Further inland, it has assets to deal with this kind of opponent. But it's currently not able to do it with its sea based or air based gear.

I think UAV's will play a role in this in the near future. We already see a variety of cheap and effective UAV's that can work together to patrol maritime airspace.

The other gear that will play a role is Type 052D, we've heard some rumors about this already. Hopefully, they will soon begin building the first at the same time work continues on the new Type 054B. PLAN need something with more powerful radars than that on the Type 054B. Looking at the SY-400 VLS, it does appear that China has the VLS technology down already and probably all the chips are in place to build a world-class destroyer.

As crobato says, it's a budget problem (and the Type 051C might have contributed to this)... the subs get priority. If the recent budget increases continue though, the time for building destroyers at a steady pace (3 per year?) can begin in 2009.

China does currently lack the ability to prevent B-2 from flying right up to around the coastline. Further inland, it has assets to deal with this kind of opponent.

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China might not have the ability to intercept the bombers themselves, but it can deal with its current arsenal of munitions with relative ease. Lone B-2s going on precision-strike missions will fail to have any effect on Chinese assets.