Rand Report : US Could be Defeated

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coolieno99

Junior Member
Reasonable depends on who you talk to. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked because it would save Americans lives. Unofficially it can be debated if that was the real reason. I don't see any difference with Japan and China in that regard. Rememeber Bush says the US has the right to first strike with nukes on a country with nukes. A carrier is so important in the minds of Americans that they would respond with nukes.

Japan didn't have any nukes to respond in kind. So it was an easy decision to make for bombing Japan.
China is different. Even if all 12 American carriers were lost to conventional weapons, I believe U.S. would not dare to launch a nuclear attack.

Youtube video of China first thermonuclear device detonated on June 17, 1967. The yield was 3 MT (150 Hiroshima A-bomb)
At 00:40, the little white dot next to the fireball is the sun.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
When the other side has nuclear weapons, the US doesn't know if and when they'll use them. And Americans are pretty paranoid about countries that aren't allies having nukes. Which they spend so much time preoccupied these days. So this falls along with the policy of right to first strike and right to preemptive strike because it's all about getting them before they get you.

Japan not having nukes and being bombed anyway just shows the willingness to use nukes even on a non-nuclear nations.
 

Ecowarrior

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Reasonable depends on who you talk to. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked because it would save Americans lives. Unofficially it can be debated if that was the real reason. I don't see any difference with Japan and China in that regard. Rememeber Bush says the US has the right to first strike with nukes on a country with nukes. A carrier is so important in the minds of Americans that they would respond with nukes.

You are correct in stating that part of the argument for Hiroshima/Nagasaki was to save American lives, however, it was also argued that such action would save Japanese lives. It was widely believed that the Japanese planned on "fighting to the last man", and historical evidence supports that conclusion. This was a cultural trait that would have lead to a massive reduction in the Japanese population - Far more so than the localized destruction of two major cities. Today's nukes are so much more powerful, that situational comparison is difficult (even when discussing limited tactical nuclear use, which would inevitably lead to larger scale usage).
 
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unknauthr

Junior Member
Its likely that China would not go to war with the US... unless it had first formed an Axis with other powers traditionally hostile to US interests. Its unlikely their would be any sort of purely localized conflict betteen the US and China. Any Sino-American military action would likely be in the context of a world war as smaller allies to both nations were almost instantly dragged in.

Perhaps . . . or perhaps not. The Rand report was actually written in the context of a limited confrontation between the US and China, likely sparked over a regional war, in which China would want to prevent the US from intervening.

What regional conflict could they authors have been referring to? Taiwan is mentioned 57 times in this report. Korea is mentioned 24 times. Japan 51 times. The Philippenes are mentioned 6 times. Of these proposed scenarios, I believe that most would concur that a confrontation over Taiwan is the only realistic possibility in the foreseeable future.

The real meaning of the Rand study is to suggest that, based on current developments, China could theoretically deny the US access to the region long enough to win a local war. Unlike other "think tanks", many of which are highly politicized, the Rand Corporation is US government funded. Its views therefore take on a lot more weight than some of the more partisan "think tank" reports.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
You are correct in stating that part of the argument for Hiroshima/Nagasaki was to save American lives, however, it was also argued that such action would save Japanese lives. It was widely believed that the Japanese planned on "fighting to the last man", and historical evidence supports that conclusion. This was a cultural trait that would have lead to a massive reduction in the Japanese population - Far more so than the localized destruction of two major cities. Today's nukes are so much more powerful, that situational comparison is difficult (even when discussing limited tactical nuclear use, which would inevitably lead to larger scale usage).

Sorry but given the time and situation, Americans could not care about saving Japanese lives. Take away the world war and look what was happening domestically in the US. During the Vietnam War the news every night kept a score on Vietnamese killed by Americans. When you hear even liberals and Democrats talk about the Vietnam War today you only hear them cry about the 58,000 Americans lives lost. The 2-3 million Vietnamese that were killed by Americans is just a footnote.
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
Reasonable depends on who you talk to. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked because it would save Americans lives.

Not precisely. American lifes were indeed saved and it was indeed a reason for the dropping of both atom bombs. That statement hardly tells even a portion of the whole story. Much more was needed to convince Truman to drop and atom bomb.

1- American society considered the Japanese political structure to be far more centralized then it actually was. It was sincerely believed that if the emperor remained UN-convinced of the futility of further conflict, that the whole of the Japanese population would continue in suicidal resistance.

2- American leaders were convinced that the bulk of the Japanese civilians would die for their emperor in kamikaze attacks just as their military had. Given the very large differences between Japanese and American cultures circa 1940s it was not hard for Truman and his aids to imagine having to shoot at human waves of civilians!

3- More damage was done in massive fire bomb attacks then in either atomic blast. The point was the damage was done with a single bomb and that point was going to be used to convince the emperor that America was not resistible by samurai style fatalism. The proposal to test the weapon in a remote area was rejected because it was believed that the emperor might not be properly informed of the blast if it did not destroy a major city. It should be noted that the original site chosen by American Military planners of the time was slated to be Kyoto because the target would have had more of an effect on the emperor, but the city was later judged too small for an effective demonstration. (NOTE: nuclear weapons were primitive then and nobody had any idea they would leave long term radiation effects behind after the blast to the extent they did)

Unofficially it can be debated if that was the real reason. I don't see any difference with Japan and China in that regard. Remember Bush says the US has the right to first strike with nukes on a country with nukes. A carrier is so important in the minds of Americans that they would respond with nukes.

A carrier would not force Bush to use Nukes but any massive killing of American civilians might elicit some form of retaliation but probably not nukes.

Perhaps . . . or perhaps not. The Rand report was actually written in the context of a limited confrontation between the US and China, likely sparked over a regional war, in which China would want to prevent the US from intervening.

I doubt you can have a limited confrontation in Asia between just the US and China. If Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea were attacked all those just named and the US would come to the aid of each other. In any conflict the Chinese could probable demand and get the help of North Korea at minimum and likely many of the more paternalistic and authoritarian pacific rim countries as well.

I believe that most would concur that a confrontation over Taiwan is the only realistic possibility in the foreseeable future.

I agree Taiwan is the most likely flash point but I would submit that the mainlanders will wait for some sort of energy crisis before going after Taiwan. Most wars require an economic component and not merely a social one (not even the huge difference between a noble democracy like Taiwan and the authoritarianism that imposes itself upon those who live on the mainland.) If any conflict erupts between China and Taiwan the oil under the spratly reefs will play a large part.

The real meaning of the Rand study is to suggest that, based on current developments, China could theoretically deny the US access to the region long enough to win a local war. Unlike other "think tanks", many of which are highly politicized, the Rand Corporation is US government funded. Its views therefore take on a lot more weight than some of the more partisan "think tank" reports.

"Denial of the region to US forces" would require the ability to sink most of the american fleet with few looses. Currently China does not have the ability to win blue water engagements with the US fleet in blue water under standard tatical conditions. New techonolgies or a state of extreme over extention of american forces would have to take place. China is unlikely to strike at this point unless US NAVAL forces are too thinly spread.

The US army may be over extended due to its stumbling attempts to free the middle east from tyrannical religious governments and secure the free trade of oil. On the other hand the US Navy is not anywhere near taxed. The Chinese can only hope to catch at least 2-3 entire carrier groups out of position. The Chinese have yet to develop an effective counter that we know of to ultra quiet US submarines of the Los Angeles Class generation, let alone the Sea Wolf or upcoming Virgina class.

I have a feeling the Rand Report talks about some sort of ultra rapid shock and awe campaign that completes its objectives before the bulk of American forces can properly get into position.
 
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Raptoreyes

New Member
Sorry but given the time and situation, Americans could not care about saving Japanese lives.

Please note that at the end of WWII the United States could have taken over the world as the sole nuclear power. Not only did the US not take this course but it also offered massive amounts of foreign aid to former allies and enemies after after the hostilities. The only ones tried and killed by the American War crimes tribunals were high ranking government officals in the axis countries. This alone is huge prof of the good intentions of the United States. Remember that nothing at all would have stopped the US from taking over the entire world after WWII except the gentleness inherent to all democratic systems.

The world as we see it today with multiple nations is only possible because the US politial structure RESTRAINED itself at a time when it could have conquered all. Simply because as imperfect as America is it shares with all decentralized democracies a lack of real desire toward expansionism via military conquest. Most of the power the US has in the world if via the semi free exchange of goods.

Take away the world war and look what was happening domestically in the US. During the Vietnam War the news every night kept a score on Vietnamese killed by Americans.

The attrition strategy was one of the many mistakes made by Johnson and Robert McNamara. The way the news was reported was simply an outgrowth of that. Comparing a second wave war like Viet Nam to the first Iraq war or any US conflict afterwards is specious anyway because smart weapons mean war can be far more moral then it ever has been before. Immorality was and insufficient supervision of troops was simply going to happen in any war prior to our modern info wars but its noteworthy that the US engaged in fewer bad war acts then any authoritarian power and is roughly on parity with the other democracies for good behavior in war. (especially when you consider that the US is the unofficial defender of democracies that are too small or diffuse in indigenous population to defend them selfs in many instances)

When you hear even liberals and Democrats talk about the Vietnam War today you only hear them cry about the 58,000 Americans lives lost.

This is mostly due to the fact that the Viet Cong successfully blended into the South Vietnamese areas despite being despised by the peasantry in both the North and Southern regions. Never the less the clear and hold plan that the USMC wanted to carry out was never implemented on a large scale (marines and solders living along side people in the larger villages) in favor of a strategy that was micromanaged by of the most incompetent managers in American history. Yes I speak of none other then Robert McNamara.

In the confusion and mismanagement's of the military the North Vietnamese were able to pull off an extraordinary politial deception. America felt we were not wanted in the region when in fact we would have had allies, but for the fact that the Viet Cong successfully gave the impression that the United States could not properly protect the villagers from communist death squads of the VC.

The 2-3 million Vietnamese that were killed by Americans is just a footnote.

Actually more Vietnamese were killed by the Viet Cong then the Americans. Vietnam is an outdated comparison. any way you choose to look at it. The first highly primitive smart bomb was used to take out a bridge near the extreme tail in end of the Viet Nam war. Heavy jungle made it impossible to tell friend from foe without cumbersome proceeder's that could rarely be safely followed. Bombing holidays and other highly unnecessary restraints upon combat prolonged the war beyond what was reasonable and actually made North Vietnamese victory possible where it would have been impossible with semi competent leadership from Washington at the time.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
The Spratley islands have nothing to do with Taiwan anyway. Its way too south. That's a dispute China has to deal with Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

Otherwise keep going. Its all enjoyable reads.
 

Troika

Junior Member
Please note that at the end of WWII the United States could have taken over the world as the sole nuclear power. Not only did the US not take this course but it also offered massive amounts of foreign aid to former allies and enemies after after the hostilities. The only ones tried and killed by the American War crimes tribunals were high ranking government officals in the axis countries. This alone is huge prof of the good intentions of the United States. Remember that nothing at all would have stopped the US from taking over the entire world after WWII except the gentleness inherent to all democratic systems.

Umm, no. The theoretical power to destroy a great portion of the world (immediate post war period, perhaps 100 weapons would be available in the short term, with more in the long term). That is insufficient to win a war by itself. The bomb destroys, it is insufficient to rule. The Soviet Union and China each sustained over 30 million dead, and more wounded, against brutal fascist invaders (which America WOULD be one if she were willing to use atomic weapons en masse to subjugate the world). You will STILL have to put boots on the ground to actually 'take over' the world, or even just Europe, as historically America DID. That need for troops would only go UP if America showed itself to be not a generally benevolent friend but a violent maniac. It is highly doubtful if it is politically plausible to draft and send out MORE troops to do task of invasion and occupation. Any attempt to 'take over' the world, or even a portion of it (say, South America) would have entailed an extended campaign and and even more extended period of occupation.

I am NOT disputing that America behaved with general benevolence after end of Second World War, but to ascribe that to purely noble motives is naive to the extreme. It is like saying Britain was very benevolent because it didn't take over Travancore when it obviously could have. We do not live in an vacuum, everything we do have consequences, and people do not simply do things because they may have the theoretical capability to do so.


The world as we see it today with multiple nations is only possible because the US politial structure RESTRAINED itself at a time when it could have conquered all. Simply because as imperfect as America is it shares with all decentralized democracies a lack of real desire toward expansionism via military conquest. Most of the power the US has in the world if via the semi free exchange of goods.

The US political structure restrained itself because it was the sensible thing to do. Now, picture a world where occupation and invasion would be a lot more painless, and maybe we would see a different conclusion. We DID see different conclusions, at least in the 19th century. Ask the natives or the Mexicans. Of course, 19th century America is not the same animal, but there is a lesson there.

As for 'real desire towards expansionism and military conquest' of all 'decentralised democracies', I find that very ironic indeed, considering how America came by the huge real estate it is now sitting on. If history does not fail me, scramble for Africa was also conducted mostly by democracies, although admittedly Britain and France was not so 'decentralised', but deomcracies only has greater restraining power towards expansionism when the COST of said expansionism begins to mount. Human beings being what they are, a mob of them is not necessarily any more moral then one dictator. The trick of the democracy is to have many many mobs of them so they restrain each other.

When there's some easy picking out there, then you have a problem.


The attrition strategy was one of the many mistakes made by Johnson and Robert McNamara. The way the news was reported was simply an outgrowth of that. Comparing a second wave war like Viet Nam to the first Iraq war or any US conflict afterwards is specious anyway because smart weapons mean war can be far more moral then it ever has been before. Immorality was and insufficient supervision of troops was simply going to happen in any war prior to our modern info wars but its noteworthy that the US engaged in fewer bad war acts then any authoritarian power and is roughly on parity with the other democracies for good behavior in war. (especially when you consider that the US is the unofficial defender of democracies that are too small or diffuse in indigenous population to defend them selfs in many instances)

You base this on WHAT statistic exactly? The PLA generally behaved well, in foreign and domestic war (there was a reason why they won the hearts and minds of Northern Chinese peasants, and no, campaign of terror don't generally do that). Soviet forces also tried to behave well, we made attempts to treat medically prisoners and civilians and also to feed them. And that was a nation who killed 30 millions of countrymen. Part of this 'bad war act' you ascribe to authoritarian regimes was also due in part to sheer brutality of warfare (some, however, was not, of course. There is nothing to excuse unit 731 or the Holocaust of Jews and Soviet war-prisoners). If America had to fight on her home soil a campaign such as the Great Patriotic War, against an enemy just as brutal, can you look me straight in the eye and promise me that American soldiers won't be just as brutal by the end of the war?


This is mostly due to the fact that the Viet Cong successfully blended into the South Vietnamese areas despite being despised by the peasantry in both the North and Southern regions. Never the less the clear and hold plan that the USMC wanted to carry out was never implemented on a large scale (marines and solders living along side people in the larger villages) in favor of a strategy that was micromanaged by of the most incompetent managers in American history. Yes I speak of none other then Robert McNamara.

In the confusion and mismanagement's of the military the North Vietnamese were able to pull off an extraordinary politial deception. America felt we were not wanted in the region when in fact we would have had allies, but for the fact that the Viet Cong successfully gave the impression that the United States could not properly protect the villagers from communist death squads of the VC.

Maybe the support of the notably corrupt and incompetent regime in the South has SOMETHING to do with it? Also, pretty impressive of you to come up with a detailed statistical study of what the Vietnamese peasants felt in general. Not to say they weren't nasty pieces of work - the wave of refugees came for a reason - but then in any realistic comparison, we must compare PRVN to the RVN, at that time period.

Actually more Vietnamese were killed by the Viet Cong then the Americans. Vietnam is an outdated comparison. any way you choose to look at it. The first highly primitive smart bomb was used to take out a bridge near the extreme tail in end of the Viet Nam war. Heavy jungle made it impossible to tell friend from foe without cumbersome proceeder's that could rarely be safely followed. Bombing holidays and other highly unnecessary restraints upon combat prolonged the war beyond what was reasonable and actually made North Vietnamese victory possible where it would have been impossible with semi competent leadership from Washington at the time.

Well, not my argument, I am going to stay out of this one.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Raptoreyes,

You certainly spent a lot of time stating your perspective but the problem is it's all technical details. I'm talking basically politcal. For example, it doesn't matter how many Vietnamese were killed by Vietnamese. Does that make it okay for Americans to have killed 2-3 million Vietnamese especially when we know what started American involvement was an engineered lie. My point was that even the bleeding heart liberals only mention the 58,000 American lives wasted as the gretaest tragedy of that war not the footnote that the US killed 2-3 million based on a lie. So if liberals could care less about millions of non-American lives lost unjustly, what makes one think Americans in general care about Japanese lives during WWII?
 
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