PRC/PLA 2015 Victory Parade Thread

[Ultra]

Take another look at your pictures. See any civilian traffic on the roads (the last picture doesn't count as that is clearly not a missile TEL)?

Those pictures were almost certainly taken by one of the police or military officers in one of the escort vehicles (or maybe a civilian VIP or specialist along for the ride).

Regular civilian road traffic would never be allowed to get right into the middle of even a low security police or military convoy as the vehicle those two pictures were taken from evidently was, never mind a top security one as would be afforded one of China's few strategic ICBMs, use your head man! What do you think the police escorts are for?

The only way someone could take a picture that close is if they were in one of the escorts that was part of the convoy.

A big no-no and security breach for them to be taking pictures never mind have them leak out to the public, but that's a different issue.

Just go look up videos on the J31 prototype being transported on the roads to see how these things work from the point of view of civilian drivers. And that's just for a fighter jet.

For ICBMs, the civilian traffic wouldn't just be order to the hard shoulder, they would be ordered off the highway altogether and they won't even know what they were being ordered to make way for.

There aren't even J31 convoy-like drive by pictures or videos of Chinese ICBMs passing civilian traffic.

I am sorry to inform you....you must be blind or you need to have your eyesight checked...

It is clear you can see civilians on motorbikes and half-truck just little bit in front of the DF-41 (supposedly).

Now this one couldn't be clearer....bunch of civilians biking RIGHT BESIDES the ICBM (clearly operational one that they don't want people to see because they do what Chinese always do - wrap it up as if it will protect its secret..... LOL!!) and clearly it is taken by one of the cyclists.

Oh and never mind the all those street vendors on the side of the road or the people in the shop on the other side of the road............





PS. These image didn't show up on my previous posts......

 

[Ultra]

Another one:

See those people on crappy motorbikes just right besides the supposedly DF-41 (who are clearly just passing through - one of them even turn his head clearly curious)

These people are close enough to almost TOUCH IT. LOL!

I think you guys are the ones clearly over-hyping China's counter-intelligence prowess like fanboys do.

If civilians can get this close, there is no telling what foreign Direction Action teams can do......I will give you guys a hint, it goes something like KA-BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

 

[vesicles]

If civilians can get this close, there is no telling what foreign Direction Action teams can do......I will give you guys a hint, it goes something like KA-BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

First of all, blowing up a nuke missile in a city full of civilians is nothing to laugh about... No matter what your opinion is of the Chinese govn't, the possibility of civilian casualty in such scale should never be associated with a laughing/smiley face. Also, why would a foreign Direction Action team blow up a nuke? Why would you do such thing when you have absolutely no way of getting away with the nuke blowing up in front of you???

Secondly, do you have confirmation that there is an actual missile inside the tube? What was the tube doing on a well-trafficked street? As you can see in the last photo, where the truck doors were all wide open, the guy standing next to the truck was in civilian cloth. So it is obvious that even the driver was civilian. We have no clue what the situation was when the photo was taken. Is it possible that this is simply the magician's hand waving in your face, to divert your attention? While people follow this tube and take photos etc, the actual missiles have been going some other directions and completely out of your view... Is it also possible that this is a trap? some of the civilian vehicles following the truck might be packed with Spec Ops / SWAT... IF someone tries to touch the tube or anything like that, they would be swarmed with Spec Ops troops... Who knows.

Lastly, as I mentioned before, China has been notorious for being secretive of their military. All Western intelligence agencies in the world have been complaining about how difficult it is to obtain anything substantial about China's military. If China's counter-intelligence ability is so lacking as you suggested, what does it say about the competence of the Western intelligence agencies??? As you attempted to suggest, China is simply putting their top-secret weapons on a silver platter and present them to the world. Yet, all these highly advanced Western intelligence agencies and top spies in the world still cannot get anything out of China??? What have the 007's in the world been doing lately??

 

[by78]

Some cool shots:

 

[AssassinsMace]

Which foreign government would try it? Foreign agents that stick out like a sore thumb destroying a nuke in China would be considered a nuclear attack if it happened to their country. That would call for a nuclear response. So who would risk destroying a single nuke in China and what purpose would it serve? I love how the Chinese are portrayed as irrational in general. There was a third rate sci-fi movie where a giant alien object showed up floating over Tibet. Of course the Westerners wanted to learn from it. The Chinese just wanted to destroy it like they were acting on instinct. Then they made a sequel where a new alien object showed-up but this time over Israel if I recall correctly. No Chinese involved... until the very end where China out of no where sent Flankers on a one way kamikaze mission just to crash into it.

 

[Blackstone]

Which foreign government would try it? Foreign agents that stick out like a sore thumb destroying a nuke in China would be considered a nuclear attack if it happened to their country...

While I don't believe it would happen, because the bang probably isn't worth the buck, but there are plenty of loyal Americans of Chinese ancestry that wouldn't stand out like sore thumbs, if properly trained. But like I said, the bang likely isn't worth the buck, so it probably wouldn't happen.

 

[Blitzo]

I am sorry to inform you....you must be blind or you need to have your eyesight checked...

It is clear you can see civilians on motorbikes and half-truck just little bit in front of the DF-41 (supposedly).

Now this one couldn't be clearer....bunch of civilians biking RIGHT BESIDES the ICBM (clearly operational one that they don't want people to see because they do what Chinese always do - wrap it up as if it will protect its secret..... LOL!!) and clearly it is taken by one of the cyclists.

Oh and never mind the all those street vendors on the side of the road or the people in the shop on the other side of the road............





PS. These image didn't show up on my previous posts......

Ultra, you're being far too simplistic in your thinking. You see a TEL and a tube and do you immediately think it is an operational missile? Really?

Consider how many operational missile TELs China actually has, and how often we actually get pictures of them. Almost never.

 

[Blitzo]

So you think taking out the Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga as if it is a sure thing? You do realize the Soviets invented the saturation attack tactics on US fleet back in 80s, and the US was well aware of that 30 YEARS AGO and have strategy and tactics to counter that? To sink an Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga is not even a sure thing for China. For starter, China has less than 100 MRBM, which includes DF-21 and DF-26. A single Arleigh Burke can have 96 missiles, which means China doesn't even have enough "Assassin's Maces" to even saturation attack A SINGLE Arleigh Burke or Ticonderoga!! LOL!!!

Having 82 of these ships are more than an overkill against China. Taking into account that there probably exist several ground-based Direct Action Teams active in China ready to take out a portion of these missiles before they are even launch in time of war, China's chance at attacking/counter-attacking is even slimmer.

... Are you serious? You would have to infiltrate deep into hostile enemy territory, as well as get weapons past security, with a means of persisting there independently with no air support, fire support or reliable logistics support, and you will have to locate where the operational TELs are during a time of crisis, and you'd have to be able to destroy those TELs knowing that they will have their own security teams as well. 2nd Artillery even have their own SOF units for that very purpose.

I think you've played a little bit too much Halo and call of duty... or read a little bit too much tom clancy

As to the satellite, same thing. China's 2007 Anti-sat was based on a DF-21 launch platform, and how many DF-21 does China have? Less than 100 (to be very generous with the number here). If China is going to divert the very few DF-21 they have to attack the satellites, that means they can't even expect to mount a half-decent attack against a single Arleigh Burke as they simply don't have enough missiles for the attack.

I will give you the same advice you gave me.
Its good to have commentary here, but please be rational and think before posting. Don't just come across like a fanboy (no insult intended).

I think you are the one which needs to be rational before posting.

You should consider how viable it is for anyone to have "direct action teams" deep within another country with a functioning government and internal security apparatus, all with the mission to operate against operational strategic weapons systems in a time of war.
It's also worth considering just how much IRBMs China has, and will have in the near future. They had very few ground launched LACMs just a few years ago, now they number likely in the hundreds. Keeping up with the number of DF-21Ds and DF-26s they have is an even more difficult task.
As for saturation attacks, let's recall that no ship can simultaneously guide all its SAMs or ABMs at once, and we don't know what the simultaneous guidance limit and accuracy for an ABM versus a true AShBM with MaRV is. Of course, we also don't know how good an AShBM is against a moving target that may be deploying ECM, or how many AShBMs can be fired at once -- but that's an argument which you should have made instead.

If an opposing force really wanted to attack China's missile systems, there are much easier ways to do it either directly or indirectly.
Directly, they can attack the missile bases (some of which can be identified by satellite) via cruise missiles or stealth aircraft if they were willing to risk it. This will not eliminate the TELs in a time of war given they will most likely be well dispersed, but it will at least hinder their operations.
More importantly, they can indirectly attack the missile systems by attacking the C4ISR system which the AShBMs will rely on for operation. Satellites, UAVs, sonar, command/control systems on the mainland, etc.



I suppose the point I'm trying to make is that there are a multitude of easier ways for the US to potentially counter China's AShBMs, and that job will not somehow be made dramatically easier by the appearance of DF-21D and DF-26 at the parade.

And please, conduct yourself with a little more maturity here. Constantly underlining, bolding, and capitalizing phrases, writing "LOOOOL" and smileys everywhere really isn't making your argument any more convincing, if anything it just makes you appear juvenile at best, and gives off the sense that you're just trolling at worst.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Taking out a TEL on the road by planting a limpent mine is possible but gets you what? One missile of dozens. You would have to take every missile to neutralize the system, and once you make a James Bond stunt move like that its assured that the PRC would up security around such. There is more risk of terror groups trying to hijack these then the US government.

As to US Agents, 1 ) never assume that there are none. 2) they would not be sent on such a foolish action.
3) their better function in this case would likely be to try and keep track of 2nd Art movements and status rather than blow there cover for a single operation of dubious outcome.

As it is the USN is definitely in development of strategy, tactics and defense hardware aimed to counter these systems. Yet are hardly desperate enough for suicide missions. Despite the hype fact is that the DF systems are just not that big a game changer.

 

[Blitzo]

As it is the USN is definitely in development of strategy, tactics and defense hardware aimed to counter these systems. Yet are hardly desperate enough for suicide missions. Despite the hype fact is that the DF systems are just not that big a game changer.

I very much dislike the word "game changer" because it means so many things to so many different people.

Personally, I see the AShBM as a "game changer" only in the sense that it is meant to provide the ability to attack large naval vessels at long range and with relatively short travel time. No other weapon system in this day and age is as fast as a ballistic missile, when used against a target over a thousand or multiple thousands of kms away.
Subsonic cruise missiles today have great range but are too slow; supersonic cruise missiles today are relatively fast but have insufficient range; hypersonic cruise missiles today do not exist.
Naval strike fighters face the same problems, but also that they have large RCSs and can be detected easily, not to mention they would be facing a mature air defence capability if put against a modern navy. But their limited speed and range are the key points which hamstring their role in true long range, prompt, maritime strike.
Cruise missiles and airpower are also both reliant on C4ISR systems and datalinks as part of the kill chain as well, similar to AShBMs
Submarines have long endurance and can survey a relatively wide area of water, but are also vulnerable to ASW and other submarines, and their weapons have limited range. Even if China had competitive SSNs, they would have to actively pursue or stumble across an opposing naval force to use either torpedoes or AShMs.

In other words, IMO it is only the range and the speed of which they can cross the range which makes AShBM a "game changer".
AShBMs can be countered directly through counter missiles (ABM) or indirectly by attacking its kill chain, and in that sense it is not that different to the counters against air strikes or long range cruise missiles, as those strike methods can also be countered directly (SAMs, ciws, CAP) or indirectly (attacking the kill chain's recon aircraft, AEW&C aircraft, command/control, etc).
AShBMs are unique today, because they have the ability to expand the scope of danger in a very wide way, with relatively short travel time, that no other weapon does.