PRC/PLA 2015 Victory Parade Thread

[MwRYum]

Isn't it strange that, the US had slammed 4 JDAM bunker-busters into Chinese Embassy in Belgrade; knock down an obsolete interceptor jet with an ELINT plane; countless movies, TV series and games depicting PRC as aggressors that get their arse kicked left and right by Uncle Sam, which are all for worldwide consumption, an average-quality CG clip that's not meant for foreign audience, nor made by official studios, would have Americans found it offensive and need to be snubbed out right away?

 

[plawolf]

Did anyone else find it odd that China would parade its STRATEGIC weapons in front of the world and INTENTIONALLY mark it in BIG WHITE BOLD LETTERS of their designations (DF-5, DF-31, DF-26, DF15, DF-21, DF-25...etc etc)?? These weapons are of the END GAME, the last draw, the trump cards. Clearly Chinese leadership knows the world are all watching, US/UK/Japan/India all have spys on the ground to visually confirm the systems which would then be collaborate with satellite imaging to ID the systems from above - which can then be identify and destroy in time of war.

Clearly, the Chinese leadership knows this, so it makes me wonder why they make it easier to identify every system going as far as even spell out every system's designation in big letter markings like this?? Maybe the real systems don't look like this?

If the PLA cannot shake hostile surveillance of their strategic missiles on home soil, they have real problems.

China is a vast country, and has the ability to monitor when outside space based monitoring assets are overhead.

No one has remotely enough assets to monitor all of China 24/7. As soon as foreign satellites pass beyond line of site, those missiles will disperse and not be seen again until Beijing allows them to be.

That is why military analysts typically don't even bother trying to find or track the TELs, but rather focus their efforts on locating pre-prepared launch sites, where they will focus their monitoring assets and efforts during times of tension, hostility or war. But even that is probably a futile gesture replying more on luck than anything else to actually locate a TEL in war.

And of course, since these assets are located deep within Chinese territory, finding them is very different from being able to actually take them out.

I also cannot see what possible power knowing the designation of a missile would grant potential rivals and enemies.

 

[JayBird]

Isn't it strange that, the US had slammed 4 JDAM bunker-busters into Chinese Embassy in Belgrade; knock down an obsolete interceptor jet with an ELINT plane; countless movies, TV series and games depicting PRC as aggressors that get their arse kicked left and right by Uncle Sam, which are all for worldwide consumption, an average-quality CG clip that's not meant for foreign audience, nor made by official studios, would have Americans found it offensive and need to be snubbed out right away?

And you already have the conspiracy theorists pinning this CG on the Chinese government as their propaganda video. Now a days pretty much everything coming out of China is being look at from the worst possible angle and intention.

It's kind of funny to read the reactions on comment section on the Chinese navy ships near or entered U.S territorial waters off of Alaska under the rule of innocent passage articles. You see all the posters demanding USN to sunk those Chicom ships or the USN should do the same thing off the coastal areas of China. They don't even aware that's what the USN had been doing for years almost everyday with planes and ships up and down the Chinese mainland coast. And it's not even innocent passage, but collecting data and reconnaissance of Chinese military assets.

And Alaska is pretty far away from U.S mainland to feel threatened, just imagine chinese navy ships and reconnaissance planes flying everyday off the coastal area of california, Gulf of Mexico and Long island. That's how the Chinese feel......

 

[plawolf]

And you already have the conspiracy theorists pinning this CG on the Chinese government as their propaganda video. Now a days pretty much everything coming out of China is being look at from the worst possible angle and intention.

It's kind of funny to read the reactions on comment section on the Chinese navy ships near or entered U.S territorial waters off of Alaska under the rule of innocent passage articles. You see all the posters demanding USN to sunk those Chicom ships or the USN should do the same thing off the coastal areas of China. They don't even aware that's what the USN had been doing for years almost everyday with planes and ships up and down the Chinese mainland coast. And it's not even innocent passage, but collecting data and reconnaissance of Chinese military assets.

And Alaska is pretty far away from U.S mainland to feel threatened, just imagine chinese navy ships and reconnaissance planes flying everyday off the coastal area of california, Gulf of Mexico and Long island. That's how the Chinese feel......

To be fair, we all know those comment boards are invested with worthless trolls.

The US government reaction has been claim and mature, to their credit.

Just because the western media trawls Chinese boards looking for the most negative comments by trolls to pass off as the opinion of the Chinese people does not mean we should lower ourselves to such filthy depths ourselves.

 

[vesicles]

Did anyone else find it odd that China would parade its STRATEGIC weapons in front of the world and INTENTIONALLY mark it in BIG WHITE BOLD LETTERS of their designations (DF-5, DF-31, DF-26, DF15, DF-21, DF-25...etc etc)?? These weapons are of the END GAME, the last draw, the trump cards. Clearly Chinese leadership knows the world are all watching, US/UK/Japan/India all have spys on the ground to visually confirm the systems which would then be collaborate with satellite imaging to ID the systems from above - which can then be identify and destroy in time of war.

Clearly, the Chinese leadership knows this, so it makes me wonder why they make it easier to identify every system going as far as even spell out every system's designation in big letter markings like this?? Maybe the real systems don't look like this?

Well, I think the Chinese weapons tech has developed to a level, at which that they have sufficient ways to hide and protect their assets. They don't have to worry about it as much. Moreover, now that China has these sophisticated weapons, the key is to let others know their true capability to avoid miscalculation. In other words, now China wants to the world to know what kinds of toys they have and let them know "don't mess with us!"

This is distinctly different than the situation that China was in 30 years ago when China lacked means to protect their assets and lacked sophisticated tech in general. So they had to hide their true capability so as to confuse their potential rivals.

This is in fact a classic case of "arts of war" strategy. When you are weak, hide your true capability. When you are strong, let everyone know about it. The show of force alone will defeat your enemy. This is what China is attempting to do, defeating enemies without actually fighting a war.

 

[Ultra]

They've labelled the names on various ballistic missiles and other weapons systems in past parades, and/or had TV commentary listing the names of the systems. It's not unique to this year's parade.

And there's no threat in allowing the public and/or the govts of potential competing countries to know the designations of the systems. Knowing the designation doesn't say anything about the capabilities of the systems, or the actual deployed number, or the way they are deployed, or the doctrine in which they are operated... etc.

So I think you're being a little bit overly paranoid in this case. There's no reason to think the weapons are not what they are designated.

The reason they're allowing these systems to be identified is because those systems are already in operational use, and there's little to no threat in allowing the names of operational systems to be known.
In fact if potential competitors didn't have intelligence services which already knew the designations of these weapons systems then I think they wouldn't really be doing their job properly, given almost all of it was known by open source for years.

So no, I do not find it odd at all.

I beg to differ. If those missiles are what they are, meaning if they are real - the ground surveillance teams will laser paint the target for satellite survelliance teams to continously track these TELs to their designated hiding places after the parade. And it is not like China has that many nukes to begin with - and this is why designation matters - the US only needs to focus on the few "big ones" that will actually threaten the US mainland - eg. DF-5, DF-31. Designation allows them to identify and prioritize survelliance targets. There are less than 30 DF-31 and less than 20 DF-5; basically less than 50 targets to track. If satellite survelliance cannot cover the tracking of these 50 targets continously, I am sure US DoD has many covert ground survelliance teams tailing these missiles on ground. If they can find and track Osama Bin Laden who didn't even step out of his bunker, they can find China's DF-5 and DF-31.

Now, being able to monitor and track, gives them unparallel advantages in what to do with the threat - they can be far more accurate in intercepting these missiles in mid-course, or even boost phase interception, which will basically nullify China's nuclear deterrence as there are over 60 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers roaming the Pacific! In fact, the US has more ships (each packs with over 90 interceptors) than China has missiles that can reach US mainland!

Being without an element of surprise means these missiles will be shoot down long before they can even reach their targets.

 

[subotai1]

I beg to differ. If those missiles are what they are, meaning if they are real - the ground surveillance teams will laser paint the target for satellite survelliance teams to continously track these TELs to their designated hiding places after the parade. And it is not like China has that many nukes to begin with - and this is why designation matters - the US only needs to focus on the few "big ones" that will actually threaten the US mainland - eg. DF-5, DF-31. Designation allows them to identify and prioritize survelliance targets. There are less than 30 DF-31 and less than 20 DF-5; basically less than 50 targets to track. If satellite survelliance cannot cover the tracking of these 50 targets continously, I am sure US DoD has many covert ground survelliance teams tailing these missiles on ground. If they can find and track Osama Bin Laden who didn't even step out of his bunker, they can find China's DF-5 and DF-31.

Now, being able to monitor and track, gives them unparallel advantages in what to do with the threat - they can be far more accurate in intercepting these missiles in mid-course, or even boost phase interception, which will basically nullify China's nuclear deterrence as there are over 60 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers roaming the Pacific! In fact, the US has more ships (each packs with over 90 interceptors) than China has missiles that can reach US mainland!

Being without an element of surprise means these missiles will be shoot down long before they can even reach their targets.

I am trying to be as gentle as I can. But, please go do some research before you post....

 

[Ultra]

What you saw - with the exception of the DF-5 was the TEL and part of the missile. You did not see the whole thing. Those missiles are no secret to anybody in terms of what they look like. The secret parts are still secret. How many are there? How many warheads? What is their performance? Where are they actually deployed? etc.

About all China did is confirm they exist and there is more than one.

Knowing what the thing looks like allows one to know what to look for. To know what to look for allows one to know location of these missiles. Knowing the location of these missiles offers one many options of what to do with these missiles. The performance and capabilities aren't as important as the location of these missiles as one only need to concern with how to intercept these missiles as early as possible, possibly even blow it up before it can even launch.

 

[Ultra]

I am trying to be as gentle as I can. But, please go do some research before you post....

Refute my points please. Don't go on personal attack. What points that I made do you think is not plausible?

 

[vesicles]

I beg to differ. If those missiles are what they are, meaning if they are real - the ground surveillance teams will laser paint the target for satellite survelliance teams to continously track these TELs to their designated hiding places after the parade. And it is not like China has that many nukes to begin with - and this is why designation matters - the US only needs to focus on the few "big ones" that will actually threaten the US mainland - eg. DF-5, DF-31. Designation allows them to identify and prioritize survelliance targets. There are less than 30 DF-31 and less than 20 DF-5; basically less than 50 targets to track. If satellite survelliance cannot cover the tracking of these 50 targets continously, I am sure US DoD has many covert ground survelliance teams tailing these missiles on ground. If they can find and track Osama Bin Laden who didn't even step out of his bunker, they can find China's DF-5 and DF-31.

Now, being able to monitor and track, gives them unparallel advantages in what to do with the threat - they can be far more accurate in intercepting these missiles in mid-course, or even boost phase interception, which will basically nullify China's nuclear deterrence as there are over 60 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers roaming the Pacific! In fact, the US has more ships (each packs with over 90 interceptors) than China has missiles that can reach US mainland!

Being without an element of surprise means these missiles will be shoot down long before they can even reach their targets.

your points depend on one assumption: the missiles shown at the parade were the actual missiles. Is it possible that they only showed models, not the actual missiles?? Towing massive nukes around town, literally miles away from the most important govn't agencies of the nation, would not be the safest thing to do, IMHO. So most likely, what was towed on Chang-An street were models or empty launch tubes for those missiles. China was simply telling the world that they now have these missiles actively deployed in the field. That was the intended message: "what we are showing here have been formally deployed". that's why they intentionally painted the designation on the weapons, to intentionally demonstrate to the world what kind of weapons they have, without any doubt. In such case, it is clear as day, that China was not worried about exposing these specific pieces. I don't think anyone, including foreign agents, expected to get close enough to inspect any of the weapons. And I don't think anyone, including the foreign agents, expected to gain anything substantial out of the showing, except that China formally acknowledges the existence of these weapons.

As many in the West have complained, the PLA is a very secretive organization. No one can get a very good understanding of what they are doing. This would imply that the PLA knows how to keep a secret, which would suggest that they would not make rookie mistakes such as allowing foreign agencies to target and track their ultimate "assasinmace" weapons...