Potential backfire from Google Ban

Hendrik_2000 said:

Well you forgot that we are at the tailing end of 4G that produce the like of Google, Facebook, Youtube etc They get the first move advantage as Chinese app developer was nowhere at that time Now we have all kind of Chinese app developer from Baidu to Wechat, Tik tok, Youku Tudou, Didi chuxing, Alipay, Taobao etc

But 5 G will begin soon And this time around China's app developer is ready to pound on opportunity
Who knows what kind of killer app they will invent
App come and go and what is fashionable to day will be outdated tomorrow

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maybe, maybe not. its not like US is lagging 5g by 2 generation. the popularity of youtube, facebook take years achieved, its gonna take years for people to switch from one apps to another, and its not like google just gonna stop developing either. MS, amazon all had try and failed. Facebook lasso so far lagging way behind tiktok, not due to tech but due to popularity. So whatever future apps, it needs get people attention something current apps doesn't offer, it need get ppl interest in it and download it.

s002wjh said:

problem is the ecosystem. google map, youtube, facebook, tweeter etc are essential app outside of china, so even if hauwei have good OS, it still wont able to attract customer without those app. i guess right now hauwei need concentrate on its hardware and internal china market. maybe outsource software to other company or india. Modi also want made in india, so maybe a india version of apps could attract more customer.

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There is a big difference between a vendor not doing business with google (or other US companies) and its devices not being able to use any services from google (or other US companies).

First, not having gapps (the google apps and google play services package) pre-installed doesn't mean customers/shops can't install it themselves. There is a thing called opengapps. In fact that's what people have been doing with 3rd party roms anyways, as those are not google certified.

Second, even if customers can't/don't know how/won't bother to install gapps, the only big thing they cannot use for sure is the play store. For other services, they can either:

1. Install and use the specific app anyway. For example google maps and google keyboard are not google framework dependent, they can be installed and run on any modern android compatible system. Same goes with non-google platforms like facebook and twitter.
2. Use web interface or many of the existing 3rd party clients to access the service (e.g. google drive, google calendar, gmail, youtube). For example I'm a gmail and google calendar user, but I never used the official gmail and google calendar apps, as I found 3rd party clients more fitting to my needs.

Will google implement checks to deny any Huawei devices from accessing the above services? Very unlikely because:

1. As long as these services are accessible to 3rd party developers or on the web, it is technically unfeasible to block their usage on Huawei devices specifically.
2. Google has agreed to continue provide service (including play store) to existing huawei phones, making it more difficult to single out future huawei phones. If they pull services from existing users it could lead to legal actions worldwide. Google is already having plenty of legal troubles in Europe, doing this would be like adding fuel to fire.
3. The whole "ban huawei" thing is fundamentally against google's business interest. In the long run this will severely threaten its dominance in the smartphone ecosystem. It is unlikely that they'll try to do anything beyond what is absolutely required by US law.
4. It is also unfeasible for the US administration to force US internet companies to actively check device origins and selectively block some of them, as this goes beyond the scope of export regulations and reaches the realm of cyber warfare.

In general, I think the effect of a google ban on huawei phones is way overblown on most media reports.

superdog said:

There is a big difference between a vendor not doing business with google (or other US companies) and its devices not being able to use any services from google (or other US companies).

First, not having gapps (the google apps and google play services package) pre-installed doesn't mean customers/shops can't install it themselves. There is a thing called opengapps. In fact that's what people have been doing with 3rd party roms anyways, as those are not google certified.

Second, even if customers can't/don't know how/won't bother to install gapps, the only big thing they cannot use for sure is the play store. For other services, they can either:

1. Install and use the specific app anyway. For example google maps and google keyboard are not google framework dependent, they can be installed and run on any modern android compatible system. Same goes with non-google platforms like facebook and twitter.
2. Use web interface or many of the existing 3rd party clients to access the service (e.g. google drive, google calendar, gmail, youtube). For example I'm a gmail and google calendar user, but I never used the official gmail and google calendar apps, as I found 3rd party clients more fitting to my needs.

Will google implement checks to deny any Huawei devices from accessing the above services? Very unlikely because:

1. As long as these services are accessible to 3rd party developers or on the web, it is technically unfeasible to block their usage on Huawei devices specifically.
2. Google has agreed to continue provide service (including play store) to existing huawei phones, making it more difficult to single out future huawei phones. If they pull services from existing users it could lead to legal actions worldwide. Google is already having plenty of legal troubles in Europe, doing this would be like adding fuel to fire.
3. The whole "ban huawei" thing is fundamentally against google's business interest. In the long run this will severely threaten its dominance in the smartphone ecosystem. It is unlikely that they'll try to do anything beyond what is absolutely required by US law.
4. It is also unfeasible for the US administration to force US internet companies to actively check device origins and selectively block some of them, as this goes beyond the scope of export regulations and reaches the realm of cyber warfare.

In general, I think the effect of a google ban on huawei phones is way overblown on most media reports.

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I think in the short term the effect of a lack of google apps on huawei phones will lead to a definite drop in Huawei phone sales simply as a result of uncertainty and the lack of tech saviness of the average consumer who walks into a shop and wants to buy a phone. The customer service people in a store will inevitably be obligated to inform potential buyers about the issues surrounding software and app availability that they may have heard in the news or heard friends talking about.

In the longer term, the ability of Huawei phones to rebound will really depend on how Huawei's own OS compares, whether they're able to offer alternative services and apps, but also about whether there will be a way for Huawei phones to still have apps from the ecosystem that most foreign users are used to (i.e.: the top 20 apps on play store or apple's app store) in a manner that average consumers will be able to tolerate.

Don't underestimate the power of a high-quality device at a low price. People are not as dumb as we like to think. Given the motivation, they will learn and adapt.

I think the lack of Google applications is less of a problem than some think because you can just access those from a browser.
The main issue is the lack of the Google Play Store, especially for those who have bought a lot of apps.

Bltizo said:

I think in the short term the effect of a lack of google apps on huawei phones will lead to a definite drop in Huawei phone sales simply as a result of uncertainty and the lack of tech saviness of the average consumer who walks into a shop and wants to buy a phone. The customer service people in a store will inevitably be obligated to inform potential buyers about the issues surrounding software and app availability that they may have heard in the news or heard friends talking about.

In the longer term, the ability of Huawei phones to rebound will really depend on how Huawei's own OS compares, whether they're able to offer alternative services and apps, but also about whether there will be a way for Huawei phones to still have apps from the ecosystem that most foreign users are used to (i.e.: the top 20 apps on play store or apple's app store) in a manner that average consumers will be able to tolerate.

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Yes the biggest short-term impact will be from uncertainty. Despite google's statement of continuing to support current huawei devices, many western users are still worried that they may not receive any app update after 90 days. Some may worry that huawei will go out of business and their phone may no longer have warranty. Additionally, not having play store pre-installed is a big inconvenience for most consumers even if gapps can be installed post-hoc. In the short term there will be a great disruption to huawei's overseas markets, that is for sure.

But in the long run I don't think huawei will lose their overseas mobile business even if the ban persisted indefinitely. Their new OS need to be at least as usable us the current one for them to keep their market foothold, and I think that's something they can do. From available information it will be android compatible so I won't worry too much about app ecosystem. It'd be interesting to see their approach to the app market though.

It'd be cool if Huawei OS allows app developer to create native app using modern language and frameworks such as JavaScript directly, and expose underlying APIs via JavaScript. That would be a big draw for app developer, since Android and iOS both require either old, outdated, extremely verbose and legacy/obsolete languages (Java, Objective C) or esoteric niche platform specific language (Swift). That would also make it easy to port most modern existing Android and iOS apps, which are usually written in JavaScript anyway due to productivity and interoperability reasons but have to be transpiled separately to Android and iOS native languages or run in a container.

sure you can access youtube/ facebook etc from browser, but avg consumer alot time prefer app, unless its very simple to install, otherwise they probably will not buy it. Eu/western country has more $$, they have more choice. Huawei has to be able to offer something other phones dont have or can't compete with, either hardware or software or both, most phone these days has about the same performance.

does huawei has something similar to Siri or google map? at least on par of these two apps. event if they have good map apps, what happen if US doesn't allow huawei to use their GPS, does BeiDou has world coverage?

superdog said:

Yes the biggest short-term impact will be from uncertainty. Despite google's statement of continuing to support current huawei devices, many western users are still worried that they may not receive any app update after 90 days. Some may worry that huawei will go out of business and their phone may no longer have warranty. Additionally, not having play store pre-installed is a big inconvenience for most consumers even if gapps can be installed post-hoc. In the short term there will be a great disruption to huawei's overseas markets, that is for sure.

But in the long run I don't think huawei will lose their overseas mobile business even if the ban persisted indefinitely. Their new OS need to be at least as usable us the current one for them to keep their market foothold, and I think that's something they can do. From available information it will be android compatible so I won't worry too much about app ecosystem. It'd be interesting to see their approach to the app market though.

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I'd put not being subjected to mandatory updates as a good thing.

Indian phone market is dominated by Chinese phone makers, in the price points that consumers buy at in that market the Chinese firms have virtually a monopoly. This is good for Chinese firms in two ways. First off, it means Chinese OS and ecosystem should capture the Indian market, which is definitely going to grow both in volume and price in the coming years. By then, Indian consumers will be used to the Chinese ecosystem and may be reluctant to switch. China and India combined can account for 40% of the mobile phone market in the future. Secondly, India has a large pool of software developers, so they will be contributing also to this ecosystem. India already has domestic competitors within its local market to large American firms, and it's own local ecosystem of apps. In a way, this may also apply to certain other non Western markets such as Africa, Mddle East, SEA, Eastern Europe, etc.

And yes, China has alternatives to Siri/Google Voice and Google Maps. Within China, all Chinese phones use an indigenous map apps, and Huawei phones already has voice recognition that already support English in the international version.